Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

could see somewhat of a pattern shake-up, as early as this weekend.

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are showing what looks like a more active pattern toward the end of the month.  However, then I look at the Euro qpf and see this.  

 

And this is why.  The big pool of dry air over our region just won't budge.

[cyclone77]

^ Looks like a monsoon compared to the past 30 days of Euro runs.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

could see somewhat of a pattern shake-up, as early as this weekend.

Noticed this as well, just need to avoid the trough splitting with some of it going south of the region. Earlier runs of the GFS/Euro had a nice look to them.

[luckyweather]

LOT: Confidence continues to rise in a much-needed pattern change Sunday
onward as zonal to northwesterly flow becomes established aloft
and opens the door for numerous upper-level shortwaves to
propagate into the Great Lakes. The net result will be a return of
regular chances for showers and thunderstorms (e.g. every few
days), rising humidity levels, and moderating temperatures. It`s
still a hair too early to talk specifics about timing, intensity,
and coverage of showers and storms next week, though at least
parts of the area appear in line to receive much needed rainfall
from Sunday onward.

[frostfern]

6 hours ago, luckyweather said:

LOT: Confidence continues to rise in a much-needed pattern change Sunday
onward as zonal to northwesterly flow becomes established aloft
and opens the door for numerous upper-level shortwaves to
propagate into the Great Lakes. The net result will be a return of
regular chances for showers and thunderstorms (e.g. every few
days), rising humidity levels, and moderating temperatures. It`s
still a hair too early to talk specifics about timing, intensity,
and coverage of showers and storms next week, though at least
parts of the area appear in line to receive much needed rainfall
from Sunday onward.

I’ll pull my hair out if its one of those I-80/I-90 only MCS tracks and Michigan is still in the turd zone.  Either spread the wealth or don’t bother.

[hardypalmguy]

7 hours ago, frostfern said:

I’ll pull my hair out if its one of those I-80/I-90 only MCS tracks and Michigan is still in the turd zone.  Either spread the wealth or don’t bother.

I'll laugh if we get I-80 cruisers south of me.

[A-L-E-K]

30 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

I'll laugh if we get I-80 cruisers south of me.

miss sw a lock 4 u and i friend

[frostfern]

Bring the ridge.  SW flow for once in my life.  Real humid heat has a much better chance of delivering a proper downpour at this latitude.  Constantly grazed by the back edge of the lollygagging upper trough that spits a couple hundredths over 12 hours is so useless.

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Bring the ridge.  SW flow for once in my life.  Real humid heat has a much better chance of delivering a proper downpour at this latitude.  Constantly grazed by the back edge of the lollygagging upper trough that spits a couple hundredths over 12 hours is so useless.

One order of the I94 MCS/MCV special please

[A-L-E-K]

euro with more cad

[cyclone77]

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro with more cad

Lately all I do is just click on the precip map total at day 10.  Not much else to look at it anymore.  

[hardypalmguy]

Temps approaching mid 90s in Moosonee, Ontario.

[frostfern]

7 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

One order of the I94 MCS/MCV special please

Looks like the next rain will be a MSP special.  Another “bad timing” hop scotch event for me most likely.

[Natester]

18z GFS has a derecho starting from western Nebraska at hour 174, traversing through Iowa at hour 186 and dissipating in South Carolina at hour 204.  No way in the world that is verifying.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Looks like the next rain will be a MSP special.  Another “bad timing” hop scotch event for me most likely.

I sure hope so. Sitting at 0.26” of precipitation since May 15th. 

[cyclone77]

57 minutes ago, Natester said:

18z GFS has a derecho starting from western Nebraska at hour 174, traversing through Iowa at hour 186 and dissipating in South Carolina at hour 204.  No way in the world that is verifying.

If it's gonna happen Cedar Rapids will be in on it.

[cyclone77]

36 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I sure hope so. Sitting at 0.26” of precipitation since May 15th. 

Beat ya, we're at 0.30".  

[SolidIcewx]

So derecho events like these analogs then.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul41977page.htm
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

or May 22 2004 style?

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

So derecho events like these analogs then.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul41977page.htm
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

or May 22 2004 style?

I remember both those linked events.  

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

So derecho events like these analogs then.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul41977page.htm
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

or May 22 2004 style?

Rather not IMBY.  Derechos often move too fast to provide meaningful precip.  Then the aftermath sucks once the excitement wears off.  I just want a regular thunderstorm with nice lightning and heavy rain.

[A-L-E-K]

lol

same as it ever was

[hardypalmguy]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol

same as it ever was

Now do euro

[Lightning]

7 hours ago, frostfern said:

Rather not IMBY.  Derechos often move too fast to provide meaningful precip.  Then the aftermath sucks once the excitement wears off.  I just want a regular thunderstorm with nice lightning and heavy rain.

90% agree.  But I do admit there is a fun adrenaline rush watching a Derecho coming on radar for some hours and then getting blasted by a major severe storm.  Yeah the aftermath and possibly days without power  I wish we could somehow avoid that part of it.

[A-L-E-K]

7 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Now do euro

better bundle up

 

[IWXwx]

32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol

same as it ever was

You’re slacking 

 

[King James]

Weather has been really nice, June has felt like summer to me. 

[cyclone77]

Decent chance we get a decent rain later Saturday night and/or Sunday.  Def the best chance at more than a few tenths of an inch of rain in what will be over 40 days by then.

[A-L-E-K]

riding the nam

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

riding the nam

Been burned riding it at least twice in the last few weeks. Drought gonna dought