yoda Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Bret threw some interesting data at us during the couple of hours after the release of the previous advisory. On the last pass of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through Bret's center, the plane measured SFMR winds as high as 69 kt and a dropsonde surface pressure of 996 mb with 31 kt of wind. Significant mid-level westerly shear is still affecting the system, and a 0539 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined mid-level eye feature displaced about a degree to the east of Bret's low-level center. It appears that the strong SFMR winds were measured beneath the strong convection in the western mid-level eyewall feature, so it's possible that they were transient and convectively driven. That said, Bret's initial intensity was raised to 60 kt on the 2 am intermediate advisory out of an abundance of caution, and that remains the current estimate. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and will hopefully confirm whether or not the storm is still producing winds that strong. Vertical shear is expected to gradually increase over the next couple of days as Bret approaches an upper-level trough located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm could maintain its intensity or fluctuate in intensity through much of today, but it is expected to begin weakening by tonight once it crosses the Lesser Antilles and moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Global model fields indicate that Bret should degenerate into a trough over the central Caribbean Sea by day 3, which is shown in the official forecast. There are no changes in the track forecast reasoning. Bret is moving toward the west, or 280/13 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. An accelerated westward motion is expected during the next few days as Bret weakens, and the NHC track forecast is a little faster than the consensus aids, hedging toward the faster GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the island chain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles today and then move across those islands this evening and tonight as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 That’s one of the more interesting discussions I’ve read from NHC in awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Bret definitely peaked last night. Recon was very unimpressive this morning and satellite presentation is degrading quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 The storm is completely decoupled at the mid and low levels it appears. Interesting note by the NHC there on the recon data which seems to support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Gust to 69 mph in St. Lucia. Pretty impressive for a quickly weakening sheared storm. Here's this evening's video update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Bret became a TS at 42.2W, which is the furthest east of any ON RECORD in June back to 1851. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Naked swirl, but it overperformed for where and when it formed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 The end is near for Bret as the Caribbean prepares to add another name to its graveyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 The end is near for Bret as the Caribbean prepares to add another name to its graveyard. Oh but wait, there's a nice convective flare-up over the LLC to give it a little more life for tonight... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: The end is near for Bret as the Caribbean prepares to add another name to its graveyard. Oh but wait, there's a nice convective flare-up over the LLC to give it a little more life for tonight... lol Going out with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Rock out with your circulation out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2023 Author Share Posted June 24, 2023 After a big convective blast, Brett is…still trying to hang on. This is a pretty awesome IR loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Bret looks quite… exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2023 Author Share Posted June 24, 2023 End of the line after a valiant fight. Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Satellite images, surface observations, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that Bret no longer has a well-defined low-level center. The structure of the system more resembles an open wave or trough with a couple of embedded vorticity maximums. Therefore, the system does not meet the criteria needed to be considered a tropical cyclone, and this is last advisory issued by NHC. The remnants of Bret are still producing 35-kt winds in areas of showers and thunderstorms just north of the northeastern portion of Colombia. These winds are expected to decay as the system continues to move quickly westward. This is the last advisory on Bret. However, additional and future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 13.1N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 RIPIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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