Summer 2023 Banter Hangout

[SolidIcewx]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Had to since the temps were far from ablazing this summer!

Came back scorching hot sir welcome back!

[hardypalmguy]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The hottest temp at Detroit this summer was 90F. Not since 1915 has Detroit had a max temp that low on the year. Yup, you read that right. Its been 108 years since Detroit saw an annual max temp as low as they did in 2023. Since DTW came into existence in 1958, there has never been a period this long without the temp exceeding 90 (ie 91+). We are currently at 407 days and counting, and the previous record was 373 days. Using the entire period of record (1872), this is the longest we have gone without exceeding 90F since 1916 (most of the records were from the 1800s). If we make it to June 25, 2024 without a 91 it will be the 3rd longest period on record, only behind 1878 & 1886. Even if we hit it early, say June 1st, thats already 664 days and blows right past the DTW record by nearly 300 days.

 

More cherry picked data.  Go west across the pond and MKE hit 101 this summer.  With lots of other days in mid 90s.  Your point is but one in a large sea.  And that sea is getting hotter overall.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

More cherry picked data.  Go west across the pond and MKE hit 101 this summer.  With lots of other days in mid 90s.  Your point is but one in a large sea.  And that sea is getting hotter overall.

So comparing a 14-year summer dataset for Detroit, starting right when the stretch of hot summers started, to the coldest 30-year normals in the period of record for Ohio is "relevant". But stating the fact that 2023 saw Detroit's lowest annual max temp since 1915 is cherry picked. Sure, Jan.

 

Oh and I'm aware Milwaukee hit 101. I even made a separate post about the big difference from the western lakes to eastern lakes this summer. But MKE didn't have "lots" of other days in the mid-90s. They had ONE other day lol.

[A-L-E-K]

had like 6 hot days all summer imby

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

had like 6 hot days all summer imby

By no means, was it a hot summer in Chicago, but I do remember a few hot days the difference was just crazy. can't remember what day this picture is from, but saw this on more than one occasion.

[TheClimateChanger]

21 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

LMAO @TheClimateChanger. Funny, I just picked apples last week. A September tradition. I guess youre still picking cherries. First of all, Id LOVE to see a link to this alleged post 10-15 years ago I was having none of.

 

For starters, I have always said that summer temp increases are most notable locally, with very little increase in winter/other seasons. Of course, Im talking about the climate record as a whole, not using the coldest 30-year dataset in the period of record, 1961-90 (using the 30-year normals of 1961-90 and using regression lines beginning in 1970 is almost exclusively all you will ever see in posts like this). Even if your outrageous wish came true of summer, that wouldnt be climate migrating since the other seasons are not warming like that. I am also surprised you used a dataset starting in 2010 (14 years total) and compared it to a 30-year dataset (again, the coldest one). Actually, I lied. Im not surprised. We have had an unusual stretch of hot summers since 2010, and including cooler summers from the 2000s would definitely taint your cherry picking.

 

Since you were doing all this research on heat blistering Detroit, I am surprised you didnt mention the unique record that is currently ongoing for Detroit. I was going to make a post, but I guess its perfect to post it here. The hottest temp at Detroit this summer was 90F. Not since 1915 has Detroit had a max temp that low on the year. Yup, you read that right. Its been 108 years since Detroit saw an annual max temp as low as they did in 2023. Since DTW came into existence in 1958, there has never been a period this long without the temp exceeding 90 (ie 91+). We are currently at 407 days and counting, and the previous record was 373 days. Using the entire period of record (1872), this is the longest we have gone without exceeding 90F since 1916 (most of the records were from the 1800s). If we make it to June 25, 2024 without a 91 it will be the 3rd longest period on record, only behind 1878 & 1886. Even if we hit it early, say June 1st, thats already 664 days and blows right past the DTW record by nearly 300 days.

 

So in case youre counting, Detroit hit 90F a total of 2 times in 2023. In the entire St Louis climate record (where you see Detroit summers in 25 years), their top 3 lowest 90F+ days were 8, 15, & 17. In Oklahoma City, their top 3 lowest 90F+ days were 19, 30, & 34. Detroits 90F+ days for the past 5 years: 10, 17, 13, 15, 2. 

Just a little friendly banter in the banter thread.

But since you've written a lot here, I will respond. There have been 9 years with fewer 90 degree days at Detroit than this summer, plus 3 additional years with 2 each. That's 13 years [out of 150] with 2 or fewer days of 90+, or a historical incidence of about once every 11 years (and as you can see, it used to be a lot more common until recent decades). It's not as noteworthy as you are making it out to be.

Furthermore, just a short jog down I-75 and Toledo has had 11 90+ degree days, with a maximum temperature of 93F. So I bet many parts of southeast Michigan had more than 2 90-degree days. I could accuse you of cherrypicking, but I won't because we are analyzing Detroit. I don't see how anything I previously posted was cherrypicked? I took the summertime temperature data from the two first-order sites in southeast Michigan, and compared it to the 1961-1990 mean for several first order sites hundreds of miles south. No cherrypicking involved - I limited the analysis to summertime, because we just finished summer and those were forecast summertime temperature changes.

It's also not outside the climate envelope of southwest Ohio, which is the region I was comparing.

Dayton has had 5 years with 2 or fewer 90+ days since 1950, including 3 with no 90+ days (see below):

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just a little friendly banter in the banter thread.

But since you've written a lot here, I will respond. There have been 9 years with fewer 90 degree days at Detroit than this summer, plus 3 additional years with 2 each. That's 13 years [out of 150] with 2 or fewer days of 90+, or a historical incidence of about once every 11 years (and as you can see, it used to be a lot more common until recent decades). It's not as noteworthy as you are making it out to be.

Furthermore, just a short jog down I-75 and Toledo has had 11 90+ degree days, with a maximum temperature of 93F. So I bet many parts of southeast Michigan had more than 2 90-degree days. I could accuse you of cherrypicking, but I won't because we are analyzing Detroit. I don't see how anything I previously posted was cherrypicked? I took the summertime temperature data from the two first-order sites in southeast Michigan, and compared it to the 1961-1990 mean for several first order sites hundreds of miles south. No cherrypicking involved - I limited the analysis to summertime, because we just finished summer and those were forecast summertime temperature changes.

It's also not outside the climate envelope of southwest Ohio, which is the region I was comparing.

Dayton has had 5 years with 2 or fewer 90+ days since 1950, including 3 with no 90+ days (see below):

Im fine with banter. But we will never agree lol.

I wasnt making it so much a big deal about only having 2 days of 90F, though that is impressive. It was more the unique record of not passing up 90 for a record long stretch. I remember the outlandish predictions that we would average 50+ days of 90F+ by mid-century LMAO. We have NEVER gotten close to that once, yet we are going to magically AVERAGE that in a few decades? Its a joke, thats why the absolute lack of 90s this summer is noteworthy. Summers in the 1800s were notably cooler, unlike winters, so many of our "lack of heat" records come from then. In the last 100 years, only twice has there been less 90F days (1979 & 2000, each with 1) and 1 other time with 2 (1992). 

Our frequency of hot summers and snowy winters the past few decades are both impressive from a climo standpoint. I never said otherwise. I dont like hot summers, but I have to deal, and thats why I loved this summer. But whats more notable here is warmer summer nights, not days, in summer. Predictions of quadrupling+ our 90F+ days are just not happening.

Avg annual 90Fs per decade at Detroit
1880s-   5
1890s-   9
1900s-   6
1910s-  11
1920s-   9    
1930s-  17
1940s-  16
1950s-  15
1960s-  11
1970s-  12
1980s-  13
1990s-  12
2000s-  10          
2010s-  16
2020s-  12
 

Oh, last but not least. Fun fact to the original post. Dayton summer temps 1931-60 were 1.6F warmer than 1961-90, and Cincinnati summer temps 1931-60 were 1.4F warmer in 1961-90. So Detroit would have to start heating up MORE just to reach mid-20th century Ohio summer temps.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im fine with banter. But we will never agree lol.

I wasnt making it so much a big deal about only having 2 days of 90F, though that is impressive. It was more the unique record of not passing up 90 for a record long stretch. I remember the outlandish predictions that we would average 50+ days of 90F+ by mid-century LMAO. We have NEVER gotten close to that once, yet we are going to magically AVERAGE that in a few decades? Its a joke, thats why the absolute lack of 90s this summer is noteworthy. Summers in the 1800s were notably cooler, unlike winters, so many of our "lack of heat" records come from then. In the last 100 years, only twice has there been less 90F days (1979 & 2000, each with 1) and 1 other time with 2 (1992). 

Our frequency of hot summers and snowy winters the past few decades are both impressive from a climo standpoint. I never said otherwise. I dont like hot summers, but I have to deal, and thats why I loved this summer. But whats more notable here is warmer summer nights, not days, in summer. Predictions of quadrupling+ our 90F+ days are just not happening.

Avg annual 90Fs per decade at Detroit
1880s-   5
1890s-   9
1900s-   6
1910s-  11
1920s-   9    
1930s-  17
1940s-  16
1950s-  15
1960s-  11
1970s-  12
1980s-  13
1990s-  12
2000s-  10          
2010s-  16
2020s-  12
 

Oh, last but not least. Fun fact to the original post. Dayton summer temps 1931-60 were 1.6F warmer than 1961-90, and Cincinnati summer temps 1931-60 were 1.4F warmer in 1961-90. So Detroit would have to start heating up MORE just to reach mid-20th century Ohio summer temps.

The only reason the 1931-1960 average is that much higher than the 1961-1990 average in the threaded records is because the first half of that data were from the city offices. Unlike Detroit, the airports are 300 to 500 feet higher in elevation than the cities - not to mention the decreased urban heat island effect from moving away from a rooftop in the central business district to a suburban location. It might have been a bit warmer, but not by 1.5F.

My original analysis used 1961-1990 average for a few reasons - none of which involved picking cherries: (1) Most importantly, this was the date period referenced in the original claim; (2) It represents what was considered to be the "normal climate" a lot of us experienced when we began following the weather in the 1990s and start of the 2000s; and (3) It avoids the problem of mixing in data from various locations, altitudes and exposures (see note above) - all of the records compared were from the same locations and with more modern and reliable equipment characteristic of the late 20th century.

 

[Lightning]

@hardypalmguy  

Life is hard right now.  Had to crop it it a lot but you get the idea.  

 

[Lightning]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:32 AM, hardypalmguy said:

 

Is this your dream to live on a island like this just off Key West?

 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, Lightning said:

Is this your dream to live on a island like this just off Key West?

 

A little off topic but when I visited Key West years ago the traffic was horrendous. I don’t know if it was because it was the middle of winter so there were more people there or if it’s always like that. 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The only reason the 1931-1960 average is that much higher than the 1961-1990 average in the threaded records is because the first half of that data were from the city offices. Unlike Detroit, the airports are 300 to 500 feet higher in elevation than the cities - not to mention the decreased urban heat island effect from moving away from a rooftop in the central business district to a suburban location. It might have been a bit warmer, but not by 1.5F.

My original analysis used 1961-1990 average for a few reasons - none of which involved picking cherries: (1) Most importantly, this was the date period referenced in the original claim; (2) It represents what was considered to be the "normal climate" a lot of us experienced when we began following the weather in the 1990s and start of the 2000s; and (3) It avoids the problem of mixing in data from various locations, altitudes and exposures (see note above) - all of the records compared were from the same locations and with more modern and reliable equipment characteristic of the late 20th century.

 

Yes, DTW is in a suburban location. At an airport full of concrete. Obviously the ASOS is on a grassy area, but it still matters. You place that thermometer a half mile south of airport property in grassy/wooded areas and its instantly colder (especially at night).

But Im sorry...you know why 1931-60 looks warmer? Because it WAS warmer. There were absolutely brutal summers in the 1930s-50s. Heatwaves of 1931, 1934, 1936, 1953, & 1955 were worse than anything I have ever experienced. And in all of those heatwaves, the temps were even HOTTER outside of the city per multiple recording stations. And newspaper accounts of actual temperatures registered on the street (likely not properly or fully shaded) were ungodly. 

[Lightning]

24 minutes ago, roardog said:

A little off topic but when I visited Key West years ago the traffic was horrendous. I don’t know if it was because it was the middle of winter so there were more people there or if it’s always like that. 

It's not bad right now but schools are all in session.  Off season.  Locals say it is horrible mid-Feb well into April.  Plus other holiday weeks.   I tend to go to things on the off season as I can't stand crowds.  Of course that means not everything is open.

[Lightning]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, DTW is in a suburban location. At an airport full of concrete. Obviously the ASOS is on a grassy area, but it still matters. You place that thermometer a half mile south of airport property in grassy/wooded areas and its instantly colder (especially at night).

But Im sorry...you know why 1931-60 looks warmer? Because it WAS warmer. There were absolutely brutal summers in the 1930s-50s. Heatwaves of 1931, 1934, 1936, 1953, & 1955 were worse than anything I have ever experienced. And in all of those heatwaves, the temps were even HOTTER outside of the city per multiple recording stations. And newspaper accounts of actual temperatures registered on the street (likely not properly or fully shaded) were ungodly. 

Agreed.  But if you reanalyze it enough you can make it say whatever fits your agenda or pay check.  The agenda makers will declare it truth regardless of reality.  Say it loud enough and the masses will believe it as the truth.  

[Chargers09]

Lol @ implying global warming isn’t real on a science based weather forum 

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, Chargers09 said:

Lol @ implying global warming isn’t real on a science based weather forum 

If you think that is what my post implies  

[Powerball]

I see Hoosier's back.

Grand Reopening and Grand Reclosing?

[cyclone77]

The fact that we haven't had a mod in this sub for quite awhile is a testament to some pretty good posters here throughout I'd say.  Yeah we ain't perfect, but overall for an unmodded sub I'd say this sub runs pretty nicely.

[SolidIcewx]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The fact that we haven't had a mod in this sub for quite awhile is a testament to some pretty good posters here throughout I'd say.  Yeah we ain't perfect, but overall for an unmodded sub I'd say this sub runs pretty nicely.

Vast majority of us are laid back like a dead fly

[hardypalmguy]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The fact that we haven't had a mod in this sub for quite awhile is a testament to some pretty good posters here throughout I'd say.  Yeah we ain't perfect, but overall for an unmodded sub I'd say this sub runs pretty nicely.

We don't need mods, gatekeepers and free speech deniers.  As long as one isn't promoting or doing outright illegal things, people should have the right to speak their thoughts.

[hardypalmguy]

19 hours ago, Lightning said:

Is this your dream to live on a island like this just off Key West?

 

Problem with an island is you can't get anywhere easily.  Need water access but also a large swath of land.

[Lightning]

10 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Problem with an island is you can't get anywhere easily.  Need water access but also a large swath of land.

Agreed.  I wouldn't want to be restricted like that either.  It was fun seeing several waverunners being used to go back and forth from the island to Key West.  It was only 10 minutes or less to cross.

[buckeye]

On 9/19/2023 at 9:11 AM, A-L-E-K said:

had like 6 hot days all summer imby

same here

btw I wonder how cold it has to get before TWC breaks out the light blue crayons.  

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

We don't need mods, gatekeepers and free speech deniers.  As long as one isn't promoting or doing outright illegal things, people should have the right to speak their thoughts.

We finally agree on something! 

[SolidIcewx]

8 hours ago, buckeye said:

same here

btw I wonder how cold it has to get before TWC breaks out the light blue crayons.  

First real cold front is only weeks away

[luckyweather]

Skilling showing some love to the cold & snow lovers. I'm not Andy (my snowmaking rig is better). Won't be long. 

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, luckyweather said:

Skilling showing some love to the cold & snow lovers. I'm not Andy (my snowmaking rig is better). Won't be long. 

I love snow....because it's snow.   Covering my yard and house in frozen water mist from a hose, when there's bare ground everywhere else, would be just an added hassel in my life.

[bowtie`]

Last hours of Summer. Someone needs to fire up the Autumn Banter thread and all of you winter weenies can go hog wild for that frozen precipitation.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/20/2023 at 3:30 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, DTW is in a suburban location. At an airport full of concrete. Obviously the ASOS is on a grassy area, but it still matters. You place that thermometer a half mile south of airport property in grassy/wooded areas and its instantly colder (especially at night).

But Im sorry...you know why 1931-60 looks warmer? Because it WAS warmer. There were absolutely brutal summers in the 1930s-50s. Heatwaves of 1931, 1934, 1936, 1953, & 1955 were worse than anything I have ever experienced. And in all of those heatwaves, the temps were even HOTTER outside of the city per multiple recording stations. And newspaper accounts of actual temperatures registered on the street (likely not properly or fully shaded) were ungodly. 

Also, it's not true that I cherrypicked the summer months. At Flint, the change in annual temperatures is just as great if not more. It is true that Detroit's annual mean has not "shifted" quite as much as the summer mean, but very close. Looking at the past 13 years, the annual mean at Detroit is within a couple tenths of a degree of the 1961-1990 average for Columbus and Dayton, Ohio.

The values below compare 2010-2022 (13 years) at Flint to 1961-1990 averages at Toledo and Findlay, Ohio. I expect the Flint average to come up another tenth of a degree when 2023 is finished, but I've excluded 2023 since it's still in progress.

First up is annual mean for Flint. The past 13 years have averaged 49.2F for the annual mean.

At Toledo, the 1961-1990 average for annual mean was 48.5F.

At Findlay, the 1961-1990 average for annual mean was 49.5F.

The annual mean temperature at Flint over the past 13 years has been 0.7F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio and 0.3F cooler than the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio.

And I can already anticipate the next objection. Oh - but it's mostly being driven by warmer low temperatures. Wrong! The annual mean maximum temperature has shifted even more than the annual mean average temperature.

The mean average annual maximum temperature at Flint, Michigan over the past 13 years has been an astounding 59.1F.

This is 0.5F warmer than the mean at Toledo for 1961-1990.

And 0.7F warmer than the mean at Findlay for 1961-1990.

 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Also, it's not true that I cherrypicked the summer months. At Flint, the change in annual temperatures is just as great if not more. It is true that Detroit's annual mean has not "shifted" quite as much as the summer mean, but very close. Looking at the past 13 years, the annual mean at Detroit is within a couple tenths of a degree of the 1961-1990 average for Columbus and Dayton, Ohio.

The values below compare 2010-2022 (13 years) at Flint to 1961-1990 averages at Toledo and Findlay, Ohio. I expect the Flint average to come up another tenth of a degree when 2023 is finished, but I've excluded 2023 since it's still in progress.

First up is annual mean for Flint. The past 13 years have averaged 49.2F for the annual mean.

At Toledo, the 1961-1990 average for annual mean was 48.5F.

At Findlay, the 1961-1990 average for annual mean was 49.5F.

The annual mean temperature at Flint over the past 13 years has been 0.7F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio and 0.3F cooler than the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio.

And I can already anticipate the next objection. Oh - but it's mostly being driven by warmer low temperatures. Wrong! The annual mean maximum temperature has shifted even more than the annual mean average temperature.

The mean average annual maximum temperature at Flint, Michigan over the past 13 years has been an astounding 59.1F.

This is 0.5F warmer than the mean at Toledo for 1961-1990.

And 0.7F warmer than the mean at Findlay for 1961-1990.

 

No, my objection is that your sample size is 13 years lol. The mean average maximum temp at Flint for the past 13 years is almost as warm as it was for the 13-year period 1930-1942. But really Im done discussing this. I mean, using 1961-90 normals and a 13-year dataset starting with a very well-known stretch of torrid summers was one thing...but now that we are discounting 1930s-50s data for one excuse or another, I think ill pass on discussing this tenths of degrees data anymore. Our climate is heavily influenced by the Great Lakes and even as climate changes, always will be.