Summer 2023 Banter Hangout

[Lightning]

21 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I thought I missed the storms but came here to catch up on some reads. Looked outside and quite the flashes in the sky

The past 30 minutes the flashes have increased quite a bit the red cell it nearly on top of me but it is all CC.  No CG near me.  No big thunders either.  Still great to get a storm.

Note:  Not saying there isn't CG but it definitely wasn't on the north part of the storm.

[SolidIcewx]

9 minutes ago, Lightning said:

The past 30 minutes the flashes have increased quite a bit the red cell it nearly on top of me but it is all CC.  No CG near me.  No big thunders either.  Still great to get a storm.

Note:  Not saying there isn't CG but it definitely wasn't on the north part of the storm.

That’s awesome to hear and glad to come home to this also! I think I seen one possible CG just now was a visible strike in front of the storm to my north

[Lightning]

10 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

That’s awesome to hear and glad to come home to this also! I think I seen one possible CG just now was a visible strike in front of the storm to my north

We had a few around here it seems to have improved as it head south of me.  Novi, Wixon and Farmington Hills looks like they got it good!!  

[SolidIcewx]

Ahh gotta love a double tap… clearing some brush around a power pole and a yellow jacket from hell nabbed me twice on my neck. Welp back to work I guess lol. Makes # 2/3 so far this summer

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Ahh gotta love a double tap… clearing some brush around a power pole and a yellow jacket from hell nabbed me twice on my neck. Welp back to work I guess lol. Makes # 2/3 so far this summer

Need a helmet

[CheeselandSkies]

It's the 18th anniversary of the August 18, 2005 Wisconsin tornado outbreak, which set a single-day state record for number of tornadoes which still stands, and produced the long-track high end F3 which nearly hit the house where I was living at the time (my parents still do) in a subdivision just northeast of Stoughton.

Here's WMTV Channel 15 (NBC station) then-meteorologist David George pointing out the hook echo over Stoughton.

[SolidIcewx]

I caught my first glimpse of a spotted lantern fly in east Columbus. Noticed honeydew left over on some riverbank grapes. Flew up onto a Ailanthus tree so I could not kill it. Only seen one. Has anyone else in the Great Lakes area spotted these assholes at all? Hearing reports around the Toledo area

[IWXwx]

6 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I caught my first glimpse of a spotted lantern fly in east Columbus. Noticed honeydew left over on some riverbank grapes. Flew up onto a Ailanthus tree so I could not kill it. Only seen one. Has anyone else in the Great Lakes area spotted these assholes at all? Hearing reports around the Toledo area

Not the Great lakes, but a tree at my friends' convenience store here in Huntington had an infestation.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I caught my first glimpse of a spotted lantern fly in east Columbus. Noticed honeydew left over on some riverbank grapes. Flew up onto a Ailanthus tree so I could not kill it. Only seen one. Has anyone else in the Great Lakes area spotted these assholes at all? Hearing reports around the Toledo area

Yeah, there's a massive infestation in western Pennsylvania.

[SolidIcewx]

21 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Not the Great lakes, but a tree at my friends' convenience store here in Huntington had an infestation.

I just reported my second infestation today in the old milo area of Columbus.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Just wanted to say I miss the ALL CAPS days where the NWS would put a nice long synopsis of what's going on and causing an event in warnings/watches/advisories.

[hawkeye_wx]

Hurricane Franklin, well off the US southeast coast, has cratered to 926 mb this evening.  72 hours ago it was 1003 mb and highly sheared. 

[bowtie`]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Hurricane Franklin, well off the US southeast coast, has cratered to 926 mb this evening.  72 hours ago it was 1003 mb and highly sheared. 

THe fish are not happy. Neither is HurricaneJosh as he wants a cat 5 to blow down his new house.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Hurricane Franklin, well off the US southeast coast, has cratered to 926 mb this evening.  72 hours ago it was 1003 mb and highly sheared. 

Hopefully the one heading towards Florida doesn't do something like that.

[hardypalmguy]

11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Hopefully the one heading towards Florida doesn't do something like that.

Florida is about to be flattened.  There will be zero insurance companies in that state next year.

[luckyweather]

Quick getaway for some MTB in Park City UT on Labor Day weekend, drove up to Big Cottonwood Canyon on Sunday night as a big storm was moving in. Was all rain while I was there but woke up the next morning to see they got their first measurable snow later that night. Flew home to find nothing but 70s and even a 60 in the point looking ahead. Life is good. 

[Lightning]

After the bone dry May into June, this summer has turned out quite well (I know May is a spring month).  Great temps and several storms.  

[frostfern]

Is anyone following the unusual storm that caused extreme flooding in Greece?  The storm caused up to 20 inches of rain in 12 hours!  Its wild for a place that normally gets 25 inches annually.  A cutoff low wrapped an “atmospheric river” of extremely humid air originating from the southern Mediterranean into one of the more mountainous portions of the Aegean coast.  Its hard to find detailed meteorological info on the event.  

[TheClimateChanger]

I remember 10-15 years ago the Union of Concerned Scientists came out with a projection for future climate changes, and @michsnowfreak wasn't having it. So I wanted to take a closer look at southeast Michigan to see how we're doing there, and, boy, it's not looking good.

Toledo, Ohio (1961-1990)

Findlay, Ohio (1961-1990)

Flint, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at Flint, Michigan have averaged 0.6F, 1.1F, and 0.9F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio; and -0.4F, +0.3F, and +0.2F compared to the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio in JJA. So Flint's summertime climate is now slightly warmer than the late 20th century climate of Findlay, Ohio, nearly a degree warmer than that of Toledo, Ohio, and only about a degree cooler than that of Columbus, Ohio (not shown).

Dayton, Ohio (1961-1990)

Cincinnati, Ohio (1961-1990)

Detroit, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at in the Motor City have averaged -0.1F, +0.9F, and +0.9F in JJA compared to late 20th century Dayton, Ohio, and -0.8F, 0.0F, and -0.4F in JJA compared to late 20th century Cincinnati. So Detroit's summertime climate is now on par with the climate of the late 20th century is far southwestern parts of the State of Ohio (a tad warmer than Dayton, ever so slightly cooler than Cincy) and extreme northern Kentucky (CVG is across the border in Kentucky).

Verdict

The Union of Concerned Scientists' forecast has done incredibly well, but the low emissions forecast for 2050s looks too conservative. Probably in between low and high emissions at the moment. The near-term prognostication looks very good.

[Powerball]

lol

[Lightning]

Fear monger alert...

[Stebo]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:25 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I remember 10-15 years ago the Union of Concerned Scientists came out with a projection for future climate changes, and @michsnowfreak wasn't having it. So I wanted to take a closer look at southeast Michigan to see how we're doing there, and, boy, it's not looking good.

Toledo, Ohio (1961-1990)

Findlay, Ohio (1961-1990)

Flint, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at Flint, Michigan have averaged 0.6F, 1.1F, and 0.9F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio; and -0.4F, +0.3F, and +0.2F compared to the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio in JJA. So Flint's summertime climate is now slightly warmer than the late 20th century climate of Findlay, Ohio, nearly a degree warmer than that of Toledo, Ohio, and only about a degree cooler than that of Columbus, Ohio (not shown).

Dayton, Ohio (1961-1990)

Cincinnati, Ohio (1961-1990)

Detroit, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at in the Motor City have averaged -0.1F, +0.9F, and +0.9F in JJA compared to late 20th century Dayton, Ohio, and -0.8F, 0.0F, and -0.4F in JJA compared to late 20th century Cincinnati. So Detroit's summertime climate is now on par with the climate of the late 20th century is far southwestern parts of the State of Ohio (a tad warmer than Dayton, ever so slightly cooler than Cincy) and extreme northern Kentucky (CVG is across the border in Kentucky).

Verdict

The Union of Concerned Scientists' forecast has done incredibly well, but the low emissions forecast for 2050s looks too conservative. Probably in between low and high emissions at the moment. The near-term prognostication looks very good.

Post this somewhere else, this isn't the place for it. Oh and before you say I am anti-climate change or something ignorant, I am far from that but this isn't the place for climate change diatribes there is a subforum for that.

[hardypalmguy]

Post this somewhere else, this isn't the place for it. Oh and before you say I am anti-climate change or something ignorant, I am far from that but this isn't the place for climate change diatribes there is a subforum for that.

This is local and relevant to our area.

[Stebo]

42 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

This is local and relevant to our area.

Doesn't matter on that, this isn't the subforum.

[SolidIcewx]

Of course when it’s going to rain the ILN radar is out. Good ole fashioned watch the sky today. Probably get rained on at work today

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:25 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I remember 10-15 years ago the Union of Concerned Scientists came out with a projection for future climate changes, and @michsnowfreak wasn't having it. So I wanted to take a closer look at southeast Michigan to see how we're doing there, and, boy, it's not looking good.

Toledo, Ohio (1961-1990)

Findlay, Ohio (1961-1990)

Flint, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at Flint, Michigan have averaged 0.6F, 1.1F, and 0.9F warmer than the 1961-1990 normal at Toledo, Ohio; and -0.4F, +0.3F, and +0.2F compared to the 1961-1990 normal at Findlay, Ohio in JJA. So Flint's summertime climate is now slightly warmer than the late 20th century climate of Findlay, Ohio, nearly a degree warmer than that of Toledo, Ohio, and only about a degree cooler than that of Columbus, Ohio (not shown).

Dayton, Ohio (1961-1990)

Cincinnati, Ohio (1961-1990)

Detroit, Michigan (2010-2023)

The last 14 years at in the Motor City have averaged -0.1F, +0.9F, and +0.9F in JJA compared to late 20th century Dayton, Ohio, and -0.8F, 0.0F, and -0.4F in JJA compared to late 20th century Cincinnati. So Detroit's summertime climate is now on par with the climate of the late 20th century is far southwestern parts of the State of Ohio (a tad warmer than Dayton, ever so slightly cooler than Cincy) and extreme northern Kentucky (CVG is across the border in Kentucky).

Verdict

The Union of Concerned Scientists' forecast has done incredibly well, but the low emissions forecast for 2050s looks too conservative. Probably in between low and high emissions at the moment. The near-term prognostication looks very good.

LMAO @TheClimateChanger. Funny, I just picked apples last week. A September tradition. I guess youre still picking cherries. First of all, Id LOVE to see a link to this alleged post 10-15 years ago I was having none of.

 

For starters, I have always said that summer temp increases are most notable locally, with very little increase in winter/other seasons. Of course, Im talking about the climate record as a whole, not using the coldest 30-year dataset in the period of record, 1961-90 (using the 30-year normals of 1961-90 and using regression lines beginning in 1970 is almost exclusively all you will ever see in posts like this). Even if your outrageous wish came true of summer, that wouldnt be climate migrating since the other seasons are not warming like that. I am also surprised you used a dataset starting in 2010 (14 years total) and compared it to a 30-year dataset (again, the coldest one). Actually, I lied. Im not surprised. We have had an unusual stretch of hot summers since 2010, and including cooler summers from the 2000s would definitely taint your cherry picking.

 

Since you were doing all this research on heat blistering Detroit, I am surprised you didnt mention the unique record that is currently ongoing for Detroit. I was going to make a post, but I guess its perfect to post it here. The hottest temp at Detroit this summer was 90F. Not since 1915 has Detroit had a max temp that low on the year. Yup, you read that right. Its been 108 years since Detroit saw an annual max temp as low as they did in 2023. Since DTW came into existence in 1958, there has never been a period this long without the temp exceeding 90 (ie 91+). We are currently at 407 days and counting, and the previous record was 373 days. Using the entire period of record (1872), this is the longest we have gone without exceeding 90F since 1916 (most of the records were from the 1800s). If we make it to June 25, 2024 without a 91 it will be the 3rd longest period on record, only behind 1878 & 1886. Even if we hit it early, say June 1st, thats already 664 days and blows right past the DTW record by nearly 300 days.

 

So in case youre counting, Detroit hit 90F a total of 2 times in 2023. In the entire St Louis climate record (where you see Detroit summers in 25 years), their top 3 lowest 90F+ days were 8, 15, & 17. In Oklahoma City, their top 3 lowest 90F+ days were 19, 30, & 34. Detroits 90F+ days for the past 5 years: 10, 17, 13, 15, 2. 

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:35 PM, Stebo said:

Post this somewhere else, this isn't the place for it. Oh and before you say I am anti-climate change or something ignorant, I am far from that but this isn't the place for climate change diatribes there is a subforum for that.

I am not afraid to backup facts to people like climatechanger. He wants to pull out the "you dont believe in climate change" card, then thats ignorant. Huge difference between believing in climate change versus following a hard-nosed agenda.

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:41 PM, hardypalmguy said:

This is local and relevant to our area.

I didnt know you cared for cherry picked data so much. Ill post a TON of fun snow stuff for you with winter coming. 

 

Speaking of relevant to our area, it was so nice to have such a pleasant summer here while the sweltering occurred to our south. Lowest annual max temp in 108 years. So refreshing. Great Lakes ftw.

[Powerball]

michsnowfreak came out of hiberbation with guns ablazing...

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

michsnowfreak came out of hiberbation with guns ablazing...

Had to since the temps were far from ablazing this summer!