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Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion


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FWD has bumped highs to 99F and 98F today and tomorrow, and is even talking about a Heat Advisory (although I don't see it has been issued officially yet).

FWIW, will need 1 more 100*F+ day to tie (with 2000) for the most ever in September. DFW is currently tied for 2nd place with 6 days.

EDIT: Heat Advisory just dropped for majority of the CWA (eastern edge of counties excluded) through 7pm Sunday...

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13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWD has bumped highs to 99F and 98F today and tomorrow, and is even talking about a Heat Advisory (although I don't see it has been issued officially yet).

FWIW, will need 1 more 100*F+ day to tie (with 2000) for the most ever in September. DFW is currently tied for 2nd place with 6 days.

EDIT: Heat Advisory just dropped for majority of the CWA (eastern edge of counties excluded) through 7pm Sunday...

Oh, and the current record high for today at DFW is 99*F (set in 2005)

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On 9/16/2023 at 1:10 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Been skunked two days in a row.  Yesterday I saw the lightning and the dark rain curtain, but nothing.  The line then filled in completely once past.  Trying to will storms to the WNW to move E and not SE.  1.7" PW IMBY as compared to the 2" PW to the W suggests another dry day is possible.


Was watching one of those cells maturing as it came right over the Houston metro around 3 or 4 PM on one of the railroad cams facing the skyscrapers on Youtube that day on Friday afternoon, 15th.

Couldn't see any of the skyscrapers at all for a little while behind the downpour wall in the core. And a decent amount of CG lightning was going on all around the cam until it moved off to the east.

D0498097-4675-4D66-B9B4-EDF5AB27DB8F.thumb.png.b76711e1fa7e5e7d114d16327789a810.png

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There's a good chance DFW will hit 100*F again today.

After today, we'll be 1 day short of tying 1998 for the 3rd most 100*F+ days in a year, and surpass 2000 for the most 100*F+ days in September.

EDIT: Depending on the evolution of convection throughout the day, today may be the latest 80*F+ low ever observed in the season as well.

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E3F3D03C-D06F-40EA-8B72-2506EBBA6AC1.gif.a592e2d68de88e671a70837519b3ac0c.gif
 

Looks like a similar northwesterly-northerly flow pattern setup like the past weeks with more mid-level shortwaves riding southward and another surface front through the state this week.

 

E010A7E0-824A-49BF-B967-1843920EAB03.jpeg.ffc95c928c252c45fd77269407fcdd99.jpeg

Stubborn mid-upper level High also starting to back further away to the southwest now.

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Area of storms that on current trend will miss Houston metro to the E.  CAPE is sufficient, a bit of backbuilding W wouldn't be surprising.  And then whatever comes down this evening/tonight from the North and Central Texas SPC outlooked storms.

 

7 day GFS ensemble rain total for my house (and on down into STX) is just under half an inch.  Hit and miss nature of recent rain suggests fire danger still exists.

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MCD out for North/Central TX region:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2192.html

 

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Area of storms that on current trend will miss Houston metro to the E.  CAPE is sufficient, a bit of backbuilding W wouldn't be surprising.  And then whatever comes down this evening/tonight from the North and Central Texas SPC outlooked storms.

 

CAM runs today and this time are in good agreement with the North/Central TX convective initiation by this evening. So it explains why SPC is holding firm on the large SLGT risk area through tonight.

Will be interesting how the likely MCS evolves/progresses south toward the southern/eastern half of the state tonight/Monday morning given the already sufficient mid-upper level dynamics in place (Effective Shear already around 35 kts, and MMP value around 50% in STX on 12z CRP sounding today). As the High has just started its significant moving away from the state trend just in the past day or two.

B2B1F607-2301-45C5-8988-90F94E80876D.thumb.jpeg.c667a54ed5e05c2eba7819f750952d67.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

MCD out for North/Central TX region:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2192.html

 

 

CAM runs today and this time are in good agreement with the North/Central TX convective initiation by this evening. So it explains why SPC is holding firm on the large SLGT risk area through tonight.

Will be interesting how the likely MCS evolves/progresses south toward the southern/eastern half of the state tonight/Monday morning given the already sufficient mid-upper level dynamics in place (Effective Shear already around 35 kts, and MMP value around 50% in STX on 12z CRP sounding today). As the High has just started its significant moving away from the state trend just in the past day or two.

B2B1F607-2301-45C5-8988-90F94E80876D.thumb.jpeg.c667a54ed5e05c2eba7819f750952d67.jpeg

NASCAR doesn't draw the crowds it used to at TMS, on the Wise/Denton County border.  (Part of Fort Worth, even though not in Tarrant County).  Still, probably >50.000 people at an outdoor sporting event.  I wonder what hail would do to the race cars.

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Even though it's early morning and most of the ongoing storms now are below severe limits with only 1 warned storm, still seeing a very good amount of lightning discharges being shown on data. Especially in the MCC northwest of San Antonio that's been maintaining its intensity pretty well since the past 2 hours with a good amount of positive charge strikes embedded. Just within a 5-minute period.

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20232680401-20232680756-GOES16-GLM-SP-EX

 

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Monday was wind and thunder and power out, Tuesday looked to be dry with big storms to the E, but they made it here around 7 pm.  Severe warned, but just a nice rain with a little thunder.  Maybe turning the corner on the drought.  Warmer than normal doesn't look to change.

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_61.png

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