Stx_Thunder Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Should be a different story up there around Eastern TX region tomorrow afternoon - Saturday. CAMs also starting to show stuff reaching into Southern TX by Saturday now instead of Sunday. ARWs holding on, and now 0Z HRRR run tonight latching onto those 2 defined mid-level impulses diving south through DFW - HOU regions with some decent sized convective clusters around Houston area later Friday afternoon and Dallas area from the second main impulse Friday night tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Ooof!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Some of our days this week will be the first below-normal five-day period for Oklahoma and Arkansas for a long time. Dallas hasn't had a week below normal since June 18th, considering all running 7-day periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 - Well-defined, thunder active outflow inching closer to Houston with that lead shortwave approaching TX/LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 8, 2023 Share Posted September 8, 2023 41 minutes ago, Powerball said: A LOT of that can be thanks to the typical compressional heating effects of the cool front in DFW vicinity near the Red river (not really the heat dome High as 500 MB heights are < 595 on this morning's 12Z upper-air soundings so not lots of subsidence/warming aloft anymore). As there's a cluster of Thunder cells firing now in Wichita Falls area ahead of that 2nd incoming shortwave impulse in OK moving southeast in the established mid-upper level northerly flow aloft. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_230908_12.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 SPC has MD out for the developing cluster in DFW region: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2116.html It's also looking a lot better now with organization into an MCC for the most part now on TX centered radar/lightning data map: Finally nice to see a convective event that's non-tropical and linearly organized like that going on in the state again especially after this summer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Powerball said: And amazingly, DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 110*F. The 3rd this year and the latest it ever happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Looks like a decent thunder event for DFW shortly. Looking at one of the live streaming EarthCams there right now, the lightning is fairly frequent off to the northwest (EarthCam.com). Though I don't see many CG strikes at all on current lightning map data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 Quite the storms heading through Tarrant county atm Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC251-439-090430- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0496.230909T0353Z-230909T0430Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1053 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Johnson County in north central Texas... South central Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 1130 PM CDT. * At 1052 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowley, moving southeast at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR AREAS FROM CROWLEY TO BURLESON IN SOUTHERN TARRANT COUNTY AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY! HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Burleson, Crowley, Everman, Keene, Joshua, Alvarado, Rendon, Edgecliff Village, Cross Timber, Edgecliff, Briaroaks, Egan, and Lillian. This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 29 and 44. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3257 9745 3267 9734 3249 9715 3240 9730 TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 325DEG 21KT 3259 9735 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH $$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 - Saw this evening's 0Z Fort Worth upper-air SPC sounding a short while ago and it's very interesting to note how little CAPE & not much atmospheric moisture there is (especially for the time of year) being acted on by this apparently vigorous incoming mid-level shortwave up there in North TX as new clusters are starting to fire up east/southeast of DFW now. Though the frequent cloud lightning I'm seeing on webcams in Dallas and Fort Worth right now, is being attributed to those steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C. ---------- This evening's 0Z CAM runs seem to be doing a poor job handling this mesoscale convective event, but do show the current activity making a run down into Houston overnight. Would not be surprised if it makes it given that it's a pretty vigorous incoming second shortwave the CAMs were showing yesterday. Tomorrow could be interesting further down into Southern TX region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 New MD out for maturing MCS in East TX: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2118.html --------- SPC Day 1 outlook TX Marginal Risk area for today larger now than on Day 2 outlook yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2023 Author Share Posted September 9, 2023 Quick hitting 6 am t-shower (I was watching HGX radar, it popped up overhead while more storms were E) at 6 this morning rained on my house for 5 minutes w/ two rumbles. 106*F yesterday broke the record from the prior day which broke the record from the prior day of hottest temp/latest in the year. Only 99* predicted today in Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 9, 2023 Share Posted September 9, 2023 New convective areas flaring up right now in the northern Hill Country, and just up the road from me here around the Coastal Bend/mid-TX coast (not too far southwest of Houston). CAM runs from today still aren't showing much going on in the state through tonight and mainly over the western hill country and TX Panhandle later tomorrow. ARWv2 has been showing some cells trying to move into my area down the coast this evening since yesterday evening run. I suspect the action developing between San Angelo and Dallas right now is being caused by another potent mid-level shortwave. So it has potential to organize into an MCS. If it does, it might reach all the way south to the coastal bend/South TX overnight. San Antonio, of course, has much better probability of getting hit later this evening. 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Quick hitting 6 am t-shower (I was watching HGX radar, it popped up overhead while more storms were E) at 6 this morning rained on my house for 5 minutes w/ two rumbles. 106*F yesterday broke the record from the prior day which broke the record from the prior day of hottest temp/latest in the year. Only 99* predicted today in Houston. It was a good amount of thunder cells literally on east side of the metro as I saw on the ABC 13 streaming tower cams around 5:30 this morning. Lightning was pretty bright and fairly frequent almost overhead watching the cam looking east toward downtown. Heard a few good thunder rumbles on the railroad cams on YTube also like on Sampson St. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 11, 2023 Share Posted September 11, 2023 Today should be the last 90*F high at DFW for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 12, 2023 Author Share Posted September 12, 2023 Only 96* in Houston and afternoon dew points dropped to 59*. And it should rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 12, 2023 Share Posted September 12, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2139.html 10 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Only 96* in Houston and afternoon dew points dropped to 59*. And it should rain. I noticed a slightly more comfortable feeling outside tonight down here and saw DPs are in the 60s despite persistent onshore flow (no front). Global models not forecasting statewide (large) convective MCS events until about the end of the week when better support aloft for lift with the southern stream flow dives further south into TX pushing the cool front all the way through the state on the weekend. All the convective outflow processes would help push it south faster. More significant MCS events could start happening a little earlier by Thursday. Maybe Wednesday, as I'm starting to see that in some of the CAMs tonight even into South TX. But at least forecast precip probabilities have been staying pretty high almost everywhere for TX by weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 13, 2023 Share Posted September 13, 2023 Both globals and CAMs have been showing generally 30 - 35 Kts of Bulk Shear over most of the state during these next couple of days. Which would support at least some stronger updraft intensity and organization. So stronger clusters and a few supercells can't be ruled out. More statewide convective onset (including southern half) looks to start tomorrow (Wednesday) as most of the latest CAM runs tonight are now depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted September 16, 2023 Share Posted September 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2023 Author Share Posted September 16, 2023 Been skunked two days in a row. Yesterday I saw the lightning and the dark rain curtain, but nothing. The line then filled in completely once past. Trying to will storms to the WNW to move E and not SE. 1.7" PW IMBY as compared to the 2" PW to the W suggests another dry day is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2023 Author Share Posted September 16, 2023 Getting the light stratiform rain between cells, better than no rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 0.0 in San Antonio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 On 9/11/2023 at 4:37 PM, Powerball said: Today should be the last 90*F high at DFW for a while... That lasted for about 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2163.html Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Areas affected...north-central Texas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686... Valid 192220Z - 192345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686 continues. SUMMARY...A supercell across north-central Texas could pose a large hail threat this evening. DISCUSSION...A supercell formed on the western periphery of mid-day elevated convection which moved east across north-central Texas. Given only weak CINH near this storm and its radar depiction over the last hour, this storm has likely rooted and is surface based in a region with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 40+ knots of mid-level northwesterly flow (per FWD VWP) has yielded near 50 knots of effective shear. This environment will support supercells capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches). If this storm continues to turn right, which it has started to do over the last 15 to 30 minutes, portions of at least the northern DFW metro area may be impacted by large to very large hail this evening. If this storm continues to maintain its current intensity or strengthen, an expansion of watch 686 may be needed. ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/19/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 TXC121-192300- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-230919T2300Z/ Denton TX- 539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY... At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Krum, or 9 miles west of Denton, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Denton, Corinth, Sanger, Krum, Shady Shores, Ponder, Stony, and Bolivar. LAT...LON 3337 9711 3315 9704 3320 9739 3337 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 325DEG 18KT 3323 9729 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Dunn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Severe Weather StatementNational Weather Service Fort Worth TX539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023TXC121-192300-/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0511.000000T0000Z-230919T2300Z/Denton TX-539 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDTFOR NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY...At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Krum, or 9miles west of Denton, moving southeast at 20 mph.HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.SOURCE...Radar indicated.IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.Locations impacted include...Denton, Corinth, Sanger, Krum, Shady Shores, Ponder, Stony, andBolivar.LAT...LON 3337 9711 3315 9704 3320 9739 3337 9738TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 325DEG 18KT 3323 9729HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATEDMAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 INWIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATEDMAX WIND GUST...60 MPH$$DunnThat cell west of OKC is wild. Moving in a completely different direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 49 minutes ago, nwohweather said: That cell west of OKC is wild. Moving in a completely different direction Golf ball hail and 60 mph winds on that thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now