Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion

[Powerball]

Something that may get lost in the conversation for DFW is that whlle 2023 Met Summer may be hotter than 1998 and 2022 on paper:

1. 2022 tied for the hottest May-June-July on record (with 1998).

2. While 1998, 2011 and 1980 were wall-to-wall torches from start to finish, 2022 was decidedly front-loaded while 2023 has been decidedly back-loaded.

[Powerball]

DFW managed to eek out another 100*F today despite increased cloud cover and a quicker frontal passage. With that, 2023 also ties with 2022 for 47 100*F+ days.

Just need 1 more before August ends to crack the top 10 list for the most in a month. It's going to be a tall order, but it seems Thursday will offer the best shot.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

107° headed for 110°, but HGX radar showing some little cells popcorning to the N of Houston, and GRK showing more in the pipeline.

 

[Powerball]

*IF* DFW somehow managed to avoid measurable precip from today's storms (I doubt it, but it wouldn't surprise me), this will tie for the 2nd driest August on record and it will be the 4th driest Summer on record.

[Chargers09]

SA has officially beaten their 100 degree days record. Currently at 61. 

[cstrunk]

It finally rained in Longview. I got 2.42". Hope y'all got something too.

[Stx_Thunder]

All things considered this summer in TX, these temps, and No heat index, must definitely feel like Fall around DFW today behind that well-advertised late summer frontal passage:

[lookingnorth]

While the heat has eased up somewhat the past few days (thankfully), we could really use some rain. Most of the state has not seen a drop of rain in the past two weeks. Most of the OKC metro has seen less than an inch of rain in the past seven weeks. We haven't even had a cloudy day in quite some time. The long stretches of hot, dry, sunny weather really get to me after a while.

[Powerball]

DFW Summer 2023 summary:

*3rd warmest on record with an average of 88.7*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average high on record of 99.4*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average low on record of 78*F (only behind 2011 and 2022).

*4th driest on record with only 1.25" of rain.

*Tied for 2nd driest August on record with only a T of precipitation (2000 is the driest with 0.00" precipitation).

*6th warmest July on record with average of 89.3*F

*2nd warmest August on record with an average of 92.9*F (only behind 2011).

*47 days (and counting) of 100*F+ highs, tied with 2022 (so far) for the 6th highest in a year.

*44 days (and counting) of 80*F+ lows, 2nd highest in a year (only behind 2011 with 55 days)

*Hit 110*F twice (8/25 and 8/26), first time since 8/2/2011 and both being the 2nd + 3rd latest ever observed (latest being 9/4/2000).

*6th highest number of consecutive 100*F+ days on record (tied with 2022).

*26 days (and counting) of 105*F+ highs, 2nd highest on record behind 1980 (so far) with 28 days.

*All-time record maximum low of 86*F tied twice (8/7 and 8/8).

*Longest streak of consecutive 85*F+ lows on record with 6 days total (previous 3 records all tied for 2 days in 2011).

*Longest consecutive duration of 80*F+ temps on record (previous record set in 1998 with 358 hours).

*Highest number of days with a heat index of 110*F+ on record

*Tied (with 1980) for the highest heat index ever recorded of 117*F.

*Tied for the highest dewpoint ever recorded (80*F) on 6/15, the 2nd earliest on record in a year (earliest being 6/14) and the highest on record since 1997.

[Powerball]

21 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW Summer 2023 summary:

*3rd warmest on record with an average of 88.7*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average high on record of 99.4*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average low on record of 78*F (only behind 2011 and 2022).

*4th driest on record with only 1.25" of rain.

*Tied for 2nd driest August on record with only a T of precipitation (2000 is the driest with 0.00" precipitation).

*6th warmest July on record with average of 89.3*F

*2nd warmest August on record with an average of 92.9*F (only behind 2011).

*47 days (and counting) of 100*F+ highs, tied with 2022 (so far) for the 6th highest in a year.

*44 days (and counting) of 80*F+ lows, 2nd highest in a year (only behind 2011 with 55 days)

*Hit 110*F twice (8/25 and 8/26), first time since 8/2/2011 and both being the 2nd + 3rd latest ever observed (latest being 9/4/2000).

*6th highest number of consecutive 100*F+ days on record (tied with 2022).

*26 days (and counting) of 105*F+ highs, 2nd highest on record behind 1980 (so far) with 28 days.

*All-time record maximum low of 86*F tied twice (8/7 and 8/8).

*Longest streak of consecutive 85*F+ lows on record with 6 days total (previous 3 records all tied for 2 days in 2011).

*Longest consecutive duration of 80*F+ temps on record (previous record set in 1998 with 358 hours).

*Highest number of days with a heat index of 110*F+ on record

*Tied (with 1980) for the highest heat index ever recorded of 117*F.

*Tied for the highest dewpoint ever recorded (80*F) on 6/15, the 2nd earliest on record in a year (earliest being 6/14) and the highest on record since 1997.

Also, 2023 is now the only top 10 hottest Summer for DFW to occur during an El Nino.

[Powerball]

This weekend's forecast is turning into a bust for DFW, in a good way.

In an odd way, it's thanks to Idalia.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

HGX fire weather disco expressing some concern for t-storms drifting into inland SE Texas for lightning strikes and gusty winds, and not much rain.  POPs as high as 60% in Houston proper, but I doubt that, somehow.  I believe August was 0.01 inches of rain for August at IAH, I know Hobby received a trace, setting a monthly record for no rain.  Hi Res NAM would suggest 20% anywhere, HRRR shows a nice storm late tomorrow for Houston, but it also look no better than 20% area wide.  

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/4000-acre-wildfire-triggers-evacuations-in-walker-county/

 

[Powerball]

8 hours ago, Powerball said:

This weekend's forecast is turning into a bust for DFW, in a good way.

In an odd way, it's thanks to Idalia.

Plenty of cloud cover and many areas saw a modest amount of rain.

Yet, DFW still made it to 100*F, officially cracking the top 5 list for the number of days in a year (48) and surpassing 2022.

(still no measurable rain as of 4pm)

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Plenty of cloud cover and many areas saw a modest amount of rain.

Yet, DFW still made it to 100*F, officially cracking the top 5 list for the number of days in a year (48) and surpassing 2022.

(still no measurable rain as of 4pm)

More storms are developing over DFW. Surely it can't miss this time...

EDIT: Indeed, DFW picked up 0.20"

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Moderate 'popcorn' showers forming along and E of the US 59/I-69 corridor.  Looks to maybe get my yard later, probably misses the pine forests most susceptible to fire.

 

[Powerball]

It's crazy to think, by the end of this week, DFW may still have a shot at breaking and/or tying the 1980 record for the most 105*F+ days in a year.

[lookingnorth]

It's up to 102°F in OKC and 103°F in Norman, the hottest September temperatures here since 2012, and the hottest I have personally experienced as I was living in North Carolina back in 2012.

[Powerball]

DFW actually tied the record high of 104*F yesterday, overachieving a bit. It was, however, 1 degree off the record maximum low of 82*F

Today's record is also 104*F, which could be tied/broke as well. The record maximum low is 79*F, which is looking to be shattered.

If 105*F+ can happen today through Friday, the recoed from 1980 will be broken. If it just happens Thursday & Friday, the record will be tied.

[Powerball]

And the Excessive Heat Warnings are back for DFW, though maybe for the last time this year.

[Powerball]

12 hours ago, Powerball said:

DFW actually tied the record high of 104*F yesterday, overachieving a bit. It was, however, 1 degree off the record maximum low of 82*F

Today's record is also 104*F, which could be tied/broke as well. The record maximum low is 79*F, which is looking to be shattered.

If 105*F+ can happen today through Friday, the recoed from 1980 will be broken. If it just happens Thursday & Friday, the record will be tied.

We did tie the record high of 104*F again today, but didn't quite make it to 105*F.

That being said, in all likelihood, DFW should still tie the 1980 record of 105*F+ days in a year after tomorrow and Friday.

[Powerball]

7 hours ago, Powerball said:

We did tie the record high of 104*F again today, but didn't quite make it to 105*F.

That being said, in all likelihood, DFW should still tie the 1980 record of 105*F+ days in a year after tomorrow and Friday.

^^^Correction: 105*F did happen after making that post.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On TV last night they said the 103*F at IAH was the warmest temperature this late in the season.  Forecast 104*F today and 105*F tomorrow will obviously become the highest temps this late in the year.  Just are per TV some of the high temp records being broken are from 1980.  Didn't know that year's heat extended into September.

[Powerball]

[Stx_Thunder]

Looking at latest model runs/trends, things are actually getting interesting both Convective & temperature (change) wise for most of TX, this weekend and next week.

An actual cool front looks to move through the state next week as the ultra stubborn furnace subtropical High shrinks more and becomes displaced further west-southwest in Mexico, with potentially slightly below normal heights < 585 dipping into the state. Along with some pretty deep incoming troughing into the mid-south that could also be influenced by the northerly flow on the western outer circulation of Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic. Which would drive the front even further south like Idalia did.

Looking into latter September also, this finally looks to be the official end of the relentless 2023 summer EN induced intense heat and dryness that's plagued the state all season. Still looks to be quite warm (nowhere as hot as it's been this summer), for highs though, through the rest of the month.

But continued, much more normal 500 MB heights for a change thankfully (to start the coming EN Fall 2023). On both GFS/Euro ensembles.

----------Latest multi-global model consensus output is showing clustered, higher thunder probabilities (some severe possible with the deepening/strengthening and cooling northerly mid-upper level flow and all this remnant summer heating/humidity) probability moving south/east at times starting this weekend in Eastern TX.

But particularly Monday - Thursday timeframe (potential MCS or MCCs):

----------

WPC already showing front well south through the state and pretty widespread higher 24-hr POPs going into Wednesday (13th):

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg

[Stx_Thunder]

SPC now has decent sized areas of Marginal and Slight Risks over DFW and HOU regions in Day 2 & 3 outlooks today, also.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Stx_Thunder]

Thunder initiation and intensity wise, it personally wouldn't surprise me if those series of mid or upper level shortwave troughs starting to come into Texas today and especially this weekend in the already established northerly mid-upper level flow up there in Eastern TX, are more stout than forecast. Combine that with a cooling column and all this Texas heat/humidity still around.

Given El Niño is definitely in play here, the northerly flow is also connected to the southern jet stream not far off to the northwest.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_230907_12.gif

----------
HRW - ARWv2, CAM this morning is also showing one fairly well-defined 500 MB shortwave moving through Eastern TX all the way through Houston, intact later tomorrow (Friday):

 

Moisture aloft should not be a problem in that region tomorrow also.

-----------
Also showing another fairly stout shortwave impulse diving south from DFW - HOU regions early Saturday: 

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[Stx_Thunder]

SPC has now really expanded the Slight risk area over basically all of Northeastern - Southeastern TX and Western LA in the midday Day 2 outlook update.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

8 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Thunder initiation and intensity wise, it personally wouldn't surprise me if those series of mid or upper level shortwave troughs starting to come into Texas today and this weekend in the already established northerly mid-upper level flow up there in Eastern TX, are more stout than forecast. Combine that with a cooling column and all this Texas heat/humidity still around.

Given El Niño is definitely in play here, the northerly flow is also connected to the southern jet stream not far off to the northwest.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_230907_12.gif

----------
HRW - ARWv2, CAM this morning is also showing one fairly well-defined 500 MB shortwave moving through Eastern TX all the way through Houston, intact later tomorrow (Friday):

 

Moisture aloft should not be a problem in that region tomorrow also.

-----------
Also showing another fairly stout shortwave impulse diving south from DFW - HOU regions early Saturday: 

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

I can see isolated thunderstorms leaving 'orphan anvils' as they die ~ 50 miles to the N o Houston

[Stx_Thunder]

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I can see isolated thunderstorms leaving 'orphan anvils' as they die ~ 50 miles to the N o Houston

- Can you also see the bigger signs outside, ongoing just off to your East in Louisiana? 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

- Can you also see the bigger signs outside, ongoing just off to your East in Louisiana? 

Maybe they are farther than 50 miles.  Common sight around Houston, big mature thunderhead getting closer, then the cumulus loses it definition, and then the anvil remains, orphaned by its dead parent thunderstorm.