Powerball Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 It's 99*F at DFW as of 12pm, but the stiff NW wind has kicked into gear. Just need that last degree (with full solar insolation) to get that 22nd consecutive day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 Euro already showing PWs well over 2 in. next week over Texas Coast region: With those values, (very?) heavy rainfall will no doubt, be a definite possibility. Heavy duty September rains a-coming on schedule, looks like.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 As sometimes happens when depending on a tropical wave 10 days in the future, the op Euro cancelled the rain. EDIT TO ADD: There is a lemon in the Gulf, apparently based only on Euro ensembles, as only 5 GFS ensemble members have anything, all weaker than 1000 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Euro is wobbling around on its projection of a mid-level (700mb & 500mb) circulation the middle of next week, going further northwest between HOU - DFW on tonight's run with most of the rainfall now right around DFW area lol: NOAA's National blend of models output @ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=NBM&area=CONUS&ps=area# - has been most consistent over the past week. * Still showing rainfall over entire TX coast around mid next week. 12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: There is a lemon in the Gulf, apparently based only on Euro ensembles, as only 5 GFS ensemble members have anything, all weaker than 1000 mb. Latest GFS tonight showing 997mb into Deep South TX around 23rd (about same time Euro forecasting its mid-level Low further northeast): https://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023081600&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 12 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: As sometimes happens when depending on a tropical wave 10 days in the future, the op Euro cancelled the rain. EDIT TO ADD: There is a lemon in the Gulf, apparently based only on Euro ensembles, as only 5 GFS ensemble members have anything, all weaker than 1000 mb. The 00z EURO OP run brought the tropical wave back in earnest. I'm hoping it *DOESN'T* happen so that DFW can move further up the ranking for 100*F+ days. We're 11 days away from catching up with 2022, and still 4 days away from cracking the top 10 list. We're also in the running for at least the 2nd warmest August on record (2011 being the 1st). And all but 3 of the remaining days in August will have to be 100*F+ to crack the top 10 highest number of days in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 At this point, it's just beautiful to see WPC's forecast graphic early next week on the repositioning of that 500mb High that far away from TX, and the 588dm line so close.. 2 hours ago, Powerball said: The 00z EURO OP run brought the tropical wave back in earnest. I'm hoping it *DOESN'T* happen so that DFW can move further up the ranking for 100*F+ days. We're 11 days away from catching up with 2022, and still 4 days away from cracking the top 10 list. We're also in the running for at least the 2nd warmest August on record (2011 being the 1st). And all but 3 of the remaining days in August will have to be 100*F+ to crack the top 10 highest number of days in a month. The more likely scenario (and given the strong consistency of the NBM precip output over past 1 - 2 weeks), will be whatever comes in from the Gulf to all stay south of N TX through at least next week as both GFS and Euro ensembles are showing the mid-upper high Not moving far enough away from there (594dm line still in region). In fact, they're now starting to trend the High moving back southwest closer to TX panhandle later next week. Albeit, might be in a normally weaker state by then, nearing end of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Radar lighting up around South TX later this afternoon with that old front hanging down here: Was pretty dark off to the north on the southeast edge of the convective shield of that pretty strong easternmost cluster. Not surprising with all this crazy and quite persistent TX heat/humidity with very little dynamics aloft this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said: Radar lighting up around South TX later this afternoon with that old front hanging down here: Was pretty dark off to the north in the convective shield of that pretty strong easternmost cluster. Not surprising with all this crazy and quite persistent TX heat/humidity with very little dynamics aloft this time of year. 100°F today as a high, the high yesterday was 105°F, or we are cooler. 18Z GFS averages about an inch in SETX with the tropical wave. Doesn't look like any 18Z GFS ensembles close a low with that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Ooof!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 NBM and multi-global model outputs continue holding Strong with an S on TX Coast rainfall next week starting around 22nd (Tuesday). The real question now (regardless of any tropical development in Western Gulf if at all), is...: - How much rain? Euro op also coming back on track with rain over TX coast (instead of further east the past days). Though many of the members this week were already showing 2 - 4 in. swath on average, generally over middle TX coast region next week. Even more of them now on today's 12z run. NBM showing about 2 in. right along most of TX coast through 28th. - Latest 12z Multi-global model output today: *Some higher probabilities spreading over San Antonio later on 22nd now, also. Personally now, even just additional cloud cover would make a difference like the anvil shield from yesterday's thunder cluster around here did for me (and on A/Cs). --------- Also, good amount of deep dry air aloft over the state today seen on water vapor...: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 Euro slowly backing away from a strong tropical wave, I think GFS weak wave with showers is likely outcome. CBS TV in HOU breaks the >100F streak from 30 August (and no rain since July 6th) with 98F and 30/40% rain chances Tues/Wednesday, but models don't support that. I think the 2011 record was 36 days in a row above 100, I think Houston can come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Euro slowly backing away from a strong tropical wave, I think GFS weak wave with showers is likely outcome. CBS TV in HOU breaks the >100F streak from 30 August (and no rain since July 6th) with 98F and 30/40% rain chances Tues/Wednesday, but models don't support that. I think the 2011 record was 36 days in a row above 100, I think Houston can come close. How many 100*F+ days has Houston seen so far this season? EDIT: Never mind. I think I found the answer (26 days as of 8/17). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Talk about a back-loaded Summer (2023)... What's also crazy about this number for DFW is that drought conditions haven't been nearly as severe/extreme as they were in the other top 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 And it's very fitting that a potential 110*F day starts off with a hazy sunrise from Canadian Wildfire Smoke... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Most Euro members on latest 0z run still holding onto good size generally southeast - northwest oriented swath of 2 - 5 in. average rainfall next week around middle TX coast and closer to a San Antonio - Del Rio line. If the system stays an open circulation aloft and especially given that this is a tropical entity, deeper atmospheric moisture from the southern Gulf and Carribean would get drawn further northwest in the onshore flow pattern around the northern side. Which would also be aided by the southwestern periphery flow around the 500mb high off to the northeast. WPC now spreading higher rainfall probabilities over San Antonio and Del Rio areas now as the 500mb high looks to stay more northeast, around the Arkansas/Tennessee region at least early next week. NBM precip output also spreading further inland to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 WPC now also indicating a marginal excessive rainfall risk on the day 5 outlook for most of TX coast region on Tuesday. If it develops a 500mb circulation (regardless of any TC development), the risk would likely be upgraded as a Mid-level Low does create better support for lift and deeper (tropical) moisture advection aloft for more organized deep convection on the northern region. It should keep a steady track through the Gulf (mid-upper level high not too far off to the north providing stronger steering flow) that some shower/storms could start coming onto the southern TX coast by this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 18, 2023 Author Share Posted August 18, 2023 5 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: WPC now also indicating a marginal excessive rainfall risk on the day 5 outlook for most of TX coast region on Tuesday. If it develops a 500mb circulation (regardless of any TC development), the risk would likely be upgraded as a Mid-level Low does create better support for lift and deeper (tropical) moisture advection aloft for more organized deep convection on the northern region. It should keep a steady track through the Gulf (mid-upper level high not too far off to the north providing stronger steering flow) that some shower/storms could start coming onto the southern TX coast by this Sunday. Congratulations in South Texas. Nice drought denter. A quarter inch of rain will be the first rain in Houston since 4th of July weekend, and won't do much. Trees are starting to look sick, the grasses are brown. Just need a couple of windy days to start several large wildfires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 It's amazing how difficult it has been to get a 110*F+ day at DFW since 2011. We've now had 2 back-to-back Summers amongst the hottest on record, and neither one of them could crack it. This was about the most ideal setup for it to happen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: It's amazing how difficult it has been to get a 110*F+ day at DFW since 2011. We've now had 2 back-to-back Summers amongst the hottest on record, and neither one of them could crack it. This was about the most ideal setup for it to happen too. Sunday has trended slightly warmer, so may have one more shot then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Saw a few nice thunder heads and one with an overshooting top not too far offshore to the east later in the afternoon yesterday and a few very skinny (ultra-tropical) sea breeze cells off to the west inland. Obviously, none of those are associated with the incoming tropical entity, yet. But just nice to see more signs of a coming pattern change around TX coast. It doesn't actually look like there'll be flooding rains down here as the first major tropical entity of the year for the region is projected to keep moving at a steady pace. Even when it comes onshore, due to the stronger steering flow around the High not being too far away to the north. But just glad to see a significant change and especially relief coming this week from the very relentless summer heat this year. Which will thankfully give the A/C a major break with all the cloud cover and rain too. It thankfully also doesn't look like it'll completely dry out after it moves away later in the week as both the GFS and Euro are showing some more waves of deeper atmospheric moisture coming in at times from the Gulf and from another Low in the southwestern Gulf around the end of the week. So this should be the start of the usual September rains around TX coastal region. Albeit, could still end up being quite wet despite a very dry summer, with a (slowly) strengthening El Niño at this point. 16 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Congratulations in South Texas. Nice drought denter. A quarter inch of rain will be the first rain in Houston since 4th of July weekend, and won't do much. Trees are starting to look sick, the grasses are brown. Just need a couple of windy days to start several large wildfires. All grasses are brown down here too as it hasn't rained around the coastal bend since early July also. Which only amounted to about a quarter inch on average. I'd say a half inch or even a little more around Houston is not out of question, as the system (especially if it develops a closed circulation like a depression) could still end up tracking a bit further north as they tend to. Unless, the High ends up further south than currently projected. But with more organized convection from even just a mid-level Low can send a number of outflow boundaries further north. As that would help fire off more cells mixed with daytime heating up there, and with some of the deeper tropical moisture (can produce downpours even in low-topped cells or showers), being drawn further north from the eastern region of the circulation. And possible sea breeze assistance as well. From all convective scenarios I've seen around Houston over the years, it usually doesn't take much to get some cells going up there even if there is some subsidence aloft like from the dominant subtropical High this time of year, in this case. But yes, it's likely San Antonio gets more rain than Houston with this first major tropical entity of the year for TX coast given current projections of the 500mb high not too far off to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Unless something crazy happens towards the last few days of August with the pattern (I.E. a Tropical System or a massive trough), on average, 2023 will be the 3rd warmest Summer on record for DFW (yes, surpassing 1998/2022 and only behind 2011/1980). The 2nd warmest August on record is likely a lock as well, and 2023 is still in the running to surpass 2011 for the warmest. Still amazing to think about, given it (Summer 2023) was off to a pretty tame start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 500mb High on the move, away... Today (19th): --- Gulf now full of atmospheric moisture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 DFW tied the record high of 107*F today (previously set in 2011), and also set another record maximum low of 85*F (previously 82*F set in 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 20, 2023 Author Share Posted August 20, 2023 NWS forecast is 106°F in Houston, if it is going to be that warm, I'm hoping the Accuweather 107°F is correct, as it would tie a 114 year old record for the date. 18Z GFS ensembles are no rain at all here for the tropical wave. But the GEFS gets us almost to half an inch or rain by hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 3 hours ago, Powerball said: DFW tied the record high of 107*F today (previously set in 2011), and also set another record maximum low of 85*F (previously 82*F set in 2006). Update: The high was actually 108*F, breaking the previous record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 It's already 102*F at DFW as of 11am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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