Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion

[Powerball]

We will be getting outflows in North Texas from the storms in OK (one's pushing through now), but it seems other than intermittent cloud cover and a wind shift, they may offer little relief from the heat.

EDIT: Not so fast. There's storm initiation in Montague County right now.

[Powerball]

 

[Powerball]

DFW tied the record high of 107*F today, *AND* broke the record high minimum temp with a low of 85*F (previously 83*F).

Both records were last set in 2011...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Palacios, TX (PSX) tied an all time record high minimum of 87°F last reached four different days in August, 2019.

[Powerball]

Another record maximum low of 85°F was set this morning at DFW (previous record of 84°F was again in 2011).

[Powerball]

Poor thing...

 

[Powerball]

On 8/5/2023 at 1:23 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The end is in sight, the ridge shifts W, may be far enough from the ridge for 'ring of fire' storms in 8 or 9 days.  Op GFS day 12/13 a tropical wave is coming ashore as a cold front enters the state.  Rain and high temps in the 70s and 80s most of the state.

 

In the meantime, Monday's predicted 104 °F for Houston will be the warmest day of the summer.

It seems the latest ensemble runs are even backing off on that. And Larry Cosgrove is thinking little overall change in the pattern until after Labor Day.

To-date, this Summer is the 7th hottest on record for DFW, and we're quickly catching up to the records set in the Big 4 (1980, 2011, 1998 and 2022).

Back in May, had you told me we would have a backloaded torch of a Summer this year with the persistent blocking and strengthening El Nino, I would have laughed. Yet, here we are...

 

[beavis1729]

I know this thread is focused on TX/OK...but Baton Rouge, LA just set a new record with 9 consecutive 100+ days...and the streak could reach 12+ days.  7 of the last 8 days have set or tied a record high.

The heat in the south has been unbelievable this summer.  Not just local areas - basically the entire southern tier of the US.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

I know this thread is focused on TX/OK...but Baton Rouge, LA just set a new record with 9 consecutive 100+ days...and the streak could reach 12+ days.  7 of the last 8 days have set or tied a record high.

The heat in the south has been unbelievable this summer.  Not just local areas - basically the entire southern tier of the US.

Louisiana isn't in the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic, and I'm in Texas and closer to Lake Charles than to Dallas, so I'd say this is the place to post Louisiana weather.

[Chargers09]

Trash pattern, I wouldn’t be surprise if we have more days over 100+ in SA this year than last 

[Powerball]

Unless something wild happens this evening (I.E. rogue pop-up t'storm at/near the airport), yet another record maximum low was set today at DFW of 86*F (previous record was also 85*F in 2011).

In fact, that ties for the all-time record (also most recently set in 2022).

[Powerball]

For context, there were 47 days in 2022...

[Powerball]

And another DFW record. We're now on day 5...

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NWS forecast around Austin (and the general theme applies to anywhere I-35), temps about 105, with afternoon winds 15 G 25.  They've been containing the fires quickly so far, everyone has been quite vigilant, but 2 more weeks of this, it seems likely there'd be at least 1 fire like the Possum Kingdom or Bastrop fire.  SPC critical fire and/or local NWS Red Flag warnings covering much of the state.

[Powerball]

 

[Powerball]

 

[Powerball]

With mostly clear skies last night, DFW finally broke the 85*F+ low streak after 6 days.

The low this morning was only 8F*F

[Powerball]

Alrighty then...

 

[Stx_Thunder]

This summer, at least here in South TX, is running quite similar to the 2009 summer, that I definitely remember. Which also involved a Strengthening El Niño phase (looking at CPC data), going into the fall with little clouds and rainfall until the end of August. When the 500MB high finally broke away for good down here. And no hurricanes to be found anywhere near the TX coast (which probably will be the case again this year).

I see the end of August being the case for actual rainfall. As the models have been a rather disappointment lately, forecasting the break away of this TX loving furnace subtropical high.

September rain and T-storms are normally a guarantee down here *every year. Regardless of the ENSO phase or any tropical storm or hurricane. So I'm not concerned about this atmospheric moisture-sapping high sticking around down here too much longer or through September.

Given the ongoing, strengthening EN, I suspect with all this build up of (convectively very untapped) lower level heat content, the storms around the region could initially be quite strong when the high finally breaks away (usually off to the northwest). Which typically creates a cooling northerly/northwesterly mid/upper-level flow pattern southeast of the departing high, and potential early dipping of the jet stream into TX at the end of August or beginning of September. As was the case in 2009 and 2015.

 

On 7/14/2023 at 10:05 AM, beavis1729 said:

I know many of you are focused on Dallas and Houston, but south of there in TX it has been a brutally hot and humid summer. Corpus Christi has had excessive heat warnings nearly every day for the past month. Besides hot temperatures, the humidity has been crazy due to above normal GOM temps. Constant dew points between 76-82 for weeks on end…not sure how people can deal with this. 

You get use to it once you've lived down here in South TX quite long enough or all your life. Despite the very persistent hot/dry summer pattern this year, June was actually the worst where a few nights, the Dew Point was staying right around 85 F during a stronger onshore flow pattern from the SE (usual direction). Which was unusual down here too as it's rare that it reaches that high any time of year. Though there has been a lot of breezy-windy days this summer. 

Even though I keep the indoor thermostat close to 80 most of the time, the windows were still condensating with that extremely moist Gulf surface flow. I had never seen that happen before in the summertime.

Though, 70 F+ dew point for about 70% of the year on average is quite common down here around the Corpus and Brownsville area. It may have been more like 60%, 15 years ago.

[cheese007]

Finally getting a sub-100 degree high in the forecast for DFW. Tuesday the 15th

[Stx_Thunder]

The GFS model, since about 2 weeks ago, and now the European ensembles are showing a (lowering dew point) Front backdooring all the way down to Houston (or very near TX coast), around the eastern periphery of the slightly retreating/weakening northwest furnace High, early this coming week on Tuesday (15th).

https://pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sfctd_b-imp&rh=2023081206&fh=90

https://pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcwind_mslp-mean&rh=2023081200&fh=90

With a more obvious and at least slightly cooling northerly mid/upper-level flow established and influenced from a nearby dipping jet stream just off to the northeast, and a few subtle shortwave impulses moving further south closer to the TX coast, this would likely spark at the very least, a few convective cells or shower/T-storms (possibly a bit strong in the afternoon), near it.

The typical daily summer afternoon sea breeze front going inland from the Gulf coast could collide with the incoming front if it indeed does come closer to the I-10 corridor (Houston - San Antonio line), to focus *more convective development with better moisture pooling closer to the coast. As this scenario has happened before in past (including recent) Augusts with fronts nearing the TX coast before stalling/washing out.

All of this would be an actual indication of the furnace mid/upper-level High actually starting to lose a bit more of its grip (at least for the southeastern half of TX), if that front *does* indeed creep further south all the way to the coast this upcoming week as the global models are projecting.

----------
On a longer range outlook side note, multi-global model compiled output on weather.us is starting to show "much better" Thunder potential on TX coast going into the following week of the 21st: 

https://weather.us/model-charts/multimodel/texas/tstorm-risk/20230821-1200z.html

[Powerball]

This brief reprieve in the pattern can definitely be attributed to the MJO, as it keeps meandering on the edge of the COD and Phase 8.

Kind of annoying for statistical posterity though, because this 1-2 day reprieve will break what otherwise could be an impressive streak of 100*F+ highs and 80*F+ lows for DFW.

Still, provided the front doesn't speed on up Monday any more than it already has, this streak should be good enough to surpass 2022 at least...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

0Z GFS post cold front makes Houston hotter, per GFS, Temps low 100s°F Tuesday go to mid 100s Wednesday and Thursday.  Dewpoints drop to perhaps upper 40s in Wednesday afternoon, so heat index shouldn't change.  NWS forecast is for 20% T-storm chances Tuesday with no change in temperatures.  A few splotches of .05 inch rainfall in SETX, outside of the Panhandle nobody in Texas does better than a quarter inch in the next week.  Last rain in Houston was July 6, or wildfire risks should only climb.

[Stx_Thunder]

Things are looking better each day now for the furnace dome High shrinking and actually losing grip on the TX Coast region very soon as even NOAA's, NBM output @ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov, which is typically very conservative with its rainfall projection, is staying more consistent now for some kind of rainfall, daily on its 6-hr periods, the following week of the 21st.

Most likely from deeper atmospheric moisture influxes (PWs 2 in. or greater which I'm seeing more persistently now on latest GFS runs coming ashore over TX coast), in a deeper E/SE flow aloft with those TUTT lows coming closer.

The latest Euro run tonight is actually showing one TUTT moving northwest and coming really close to South TX just off to my south, basically tracking right along the Rio Grande on the 22nd. And the mid/upper-level High center moving significantly further north/east of TX than it's ever done anytime this summer.

 

18 hours ago, Powerball said:

This brief reprieve in the pattern can definitely be attributed to the MJO, as it keeps meandering on the edge of the COD and Phase 8.

I haven't studied up too much yet on the MJO itself, but I am aware of the phases (1-8) and its impact on convective and precip patterns around TX. Though at least down here in the southern region, it doesn't seem to be a large driver of the often tropical (heavy-duty type) summer rains, until later September when the cold fronts get close. Unless.., most of the support aloft for convective development is Non-tropical like upper-level jet stream influence from the north/west.

Also, now that El Niño has finally returned and as long as it doesn't strengthen too fast, I am looking forward to a fairly convectively active upcoming Fall pattern as shortwave troughs/impulses in the subtropical or southern stream jet do tend to track farther south in TX more often during EN phases (as opposed to LA ones), with a generally more northwesterly upper-level flow instead of southwesterly as that tends to cause more of the stronger impulses to eject farther north into the Plains and leaves more of TX, capped for deep convection and drier especially down here which just sucks.

 

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

0Z GFS post cold front makes Houston hotter, per GFS, Temps low 100s°F Tuesday go to mid 100s Wednesday and Thursday.  Dewpoints drop to perhaps upper 40s in Wednesday afternoon, so heat index shouldn't change.

Hence, a 'lowering dew point front' only

Which, even that on its own would actually be 100% welcome down here in STX at this point. Though because of the lower DP, it can actually allow overnight lows to end up lower without any cool air advection at all behind the front.

Heat Index is not an issue at all when you have much lower dew points around 50 F (which is well below normal and very uncommon this time of year around TX coast). Even if actual air temp is 100 F, it can still feel "cooler" in a way because there's essentially no surface air moisture at all, at those DP values to produce a 'discomfort reaction' on the skin.

Though I find those projected 40 DPs right around Houston like that of the this evening's GFS run to be a little too generous (unless the front does actually move off the upper TX coast there). That global model has its own little "excitement" ups and downs with each run. So I prefer the more stable Euro model/ensembles before being convinced, but does show DP dropping into the 50s around there for a short period.

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

0Z GFS post cold front makes Houston hotter, per GFS, Temps low 100s°F Tuesday go to mid 100s Wednesday and Thursday.  Dewpoints drop to perhaps upper 40s in Wednesday afternoon, so heat index shouldn't change.  NWS forecast is for 20% T-storm chances Tuesday with no change in temperatures.  A few splotches of .05 inch rainfall in SETX, outside of the Panhandle nobody in Texas does better than a quarter inch in the next week.  Last rain in Houston was July 6, or wildfire risks should only climb.

 

 

Eh, the 00z GFS is notorious for mixing too deeply (even in Compressional Heating setups), and actually has been the slowest to catch on to this "cool down."

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Things are looking better each day now for the furnace dome High shrinking and actually losing grip on the TX Coast region very soon as even NOAA's, NBM output @ https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov, which is typically very conservative with its rainfall projection, is staying more consistent now for some kind of rainfall, daily on its 6-hr periods, the following week of the 21st.

Most likely from deeper atmospheric moisture influxes (PWs 2 in. or greater which I'm seeing more persistently now on latest GFS runs coming ashore over TX coast), in a deeper E/SE flow aloft with those TUTT lows coming closer.

The latest Euro run tonight is actually showing one TUTT moving northwest and coming really close to South TX just off to my south, basically tracking right along the Rio Grande on the 22nd. And the mid/upper-level High center moving significantly further north/east of TX than it's ever done anytime this summer.

 

I haven't studied up too much yet on the MJO itself, but I am aware of the phases (1-8) and it's impact on convective and precip patterns around TX. Though at least down here in the southern region, it doesn't seem to be a large driver of the often tropical (heavy-duty type) summer rains, until later September when the cold fronts get close. Unless.., most of the support aloft for convective development is Non-tropical like upper-level jet stream influence from the north/west.

Also, now that El Niño has finally returned and as long as it doesn't strengthen too fast, I am looking forward to a fairly convectively active upcoming Fall pattern as shortwave troughs/impulses in the subtropical or southern stream jet do tend to track farther south in TX more often during EN phases as opposed to LA ones, with a more northwesterly turn of the flow (instead of southwesterly as that tends to cause more of the stronger impulses to eject farther north into the Plains and leaves more of TX, capped for deep convection and drier especially down here which just sucks).

 

Hence, a 'lowering dew point front' only

Which, even that on its own would actually be 100% welcome down here in STX at this point. Though because of the lower DP, it can actually allow overnight lows to end up lower without any cool air advection at all behind the front.

Heat Index is not an issue at all when you have much lower dew points around 50 F (which is well below normal and very uncommon this time of year around TX coast). Even if actual air temp is 100 F, it can still feel "cooler" in a way because there's essentially no surface air moisture at all, at those DP values to produce a 'discomfort reaction' on the skin.

Though I find those projected 40 DPs right around Houston like that of the this evening's GFS run to be a little too generous (unless the front does actually move off the upper TX coast there). That global model has its own little "excitement" ups and downs with each run. So I prefer the more stable Euro model/ensembles before being convinced, but does show DP dropping into the 50s around there for a short period.

With respect to the MJO, from a temperature standpoint, Phases 8 climatologically-speaking translates to anomalies near normal across Texas.

 

And with respect to the dewpoints, IMO, going with a blend of the GFS and the foreign mosels is likely best. You do have a point about the GFS likely being too aggressives with the lower DPs, but I also think there should be some consideration given for the dry soils & strong subsidence on the backside of the trough to help with efficient heating.

[Powerball]

Achieved a record high of 106*F today at DFW (previous record was 105*F set in 1951).

[Stx_Thunder]

Now that it's seemed like forever here on the coastal bend, saw an actual plethora and some sizable FW cumulus towers prior to seabreeze pushing inland close to noon Sunday (yesterday).

Even more, convective signal just keeps getting better for TX Coast region next week (especially 22nd): 

* I had not seen both, in the longest time..... Actual relief and Thunder potential is in sight! September rains for the coast should be coming per usual..

Too bad for me being further south, T-storms do always love HOU area the most...

 

On 8/13/2023 at 3:04 AM, Powerball said:

With respect to the MJO, from a temperature standpoint, Phases 8 climatologically-speaking translates to anomalies near normal across Texas.

Just as I remember seeing CPC's info and again now about the MJO (and for reference on here), Phases 1 and/or 8 show the most above normal precipitation anomalies over TX in most of the 3-month periods as well: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

[Stx_Thunder]

Fairly impressive higher-end risk blob now (for 22nd) just off TX coast/south of HOU on very latest multi-model output from last night: 

Looking more like a potential, sudden El Niño-induced convective attack next week with that furnace High actually pushing away now from TX, nearing end of August..

[Powerball]

Another record for DFW: