Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2024 at 11:56 AM, Powerball said: lol at the 12z GGEM. Ain't gonna happen... Not as much snow, but still snow on the backside of the Monday storm in NCTX Tuesday morning on today's CMC (2-4 inches). Still in a 15% risk I-10 corridor from near San Antonio to Alabama with that storm Monday. Euro and GFS show limited surface instability (near/less 500 J/KG ML) but close to 1500 MUCAPE with about 50 knot LLJ Monday mid-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some fairly heavy cells developing near TX coast early this morning, but not much lightning (so far) with meager tops on ET radar. 0Z CRP sounding tonight showed much less CAPE (but still fairly steep mid-level LRs) compared to Tuesday evening's system (that went much further south than where tonight's is in the panhandle per usual). But low-level flow largely staying southerly so far on VWP (instead of typical westerly veering) and seeing more concentration of cells right now ahead of next dry line/cold front just off to the west/southwest. The incoming trough aloft out west would seem to be more neutrally-tilted this time looking at precip line orientation all the way up to Dallas. Subtropical jet nosing north now into deep STX on satellite also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Had a nice little thunder cluster actually get going right near me before moving NNE just off the coast about 1 hour ago. Lightning was also a little frequent and saw 2 nice simultaneous mid-size CGs close by. Though, virtually all the strikes around were quite weak ( < 100kA) and negatives on lightning data analysis. But am seeing stronger cells and discharges starting to get going up the coast toward Houston with a much better veering flow pattern aloft up there on VWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Supercell & strongest storm over entire TX coast early this morning (not too far south of Houston) that was RI tornado warned just before 6 am. Definitely had some hail. Euro & ICON did a much better job forecasting storms happening onshore than GFS & Canadian. Though probably wasn't actually sfc-based, apparently also had a decent couplet to it on BV near Brazoria/Lake Jackson. No LSR (so far today). ----- *** LSR of confirmed tornado near Brazoria TX from the early Friday supercell in that area: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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