Texas/Oklahoma 2023 Obs and Discussion

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

41 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Rain lasted pretty much all day down here. Thunder ended by around mid-afternoon. Though lots of nice photo-worthy cloudy sky scenes to look at before it got dark.

Still lots of moisture in place aloft with 2" PW still hanging on but lower level flow on 0Z sounding starting to veer all northward now.

Looking to welcome fall with open arms behind tomorrow's first real cold front for the state this season.

 

That's generally how it always goes down here around TX in El Niño with wetter/cooler fall - spring seasons overall. I've already seen close to 10" here on the coast. Just within the last 3 weeks since that subtropical furnace high finally went away, as the grass is really starting to grow fast now between cuts. And we've only entered fall.

A pretty active winter even convective wise being right next to the gulf wouldn't be out of question and especially next spring in '24 (with obviously higher severe probabilities). Spring 2023 was pretty convectively active all things considered in the state when the ENSO transition was going on. It tends to follow a trend into the next year. But even more so around the middle of the decade as I've seen in the past 2.

I can only imagine what spring 2024 & 25 might bring this far out.

SETX doesn't have anywhere near as much severe weather in the Spring as NTX or STX because the NW Gulf is usually quite cool and more humid air from further in the Gulf on SE winds saturates and forms fog/low clouds which usually don't break until afternoon, which in combination with the EML on low-mid levels on SW flow off the higher elevations of Mexico means a cap that isn't broken the S part of the I-45 corridor.  This year there wasn't much severe down here, but it wasn't because of cold shelf waters.  Next year M-A-M, if the NW Gulf is again warm, might have the type of severe weather common in much of the rest of Texas.

[Stx_Thunder]

Really enjoying this persistent cloudy and much cooler (than it's been in literally months now on both) weather since Friday. Though not very much less humid. Definitely a huge break on the A/C. 

Shortwaves been moving through the region in the southern stream flow with intermittent echos on radar the past 2 days but most of it even out west and south around Laredo and Brownsville regions seem to be mostly virga too given the drier lower levels from last weeks fronts.

But this new week when the drying effects wane...

As things stand now, really don't need anymore rainfall, 'least around here on the coastal bend.

Looks like some pacific tropical system moisture influence also from both 16-E and Lidia. But the heaviest rainfall could end up further south. Though PWs forecast to jump from under 1.5" now, to around 2.5" by Tuesday. Which is quite high for October standards. Even down here.

[Powerball]

On 9/1/2023 at 3:49 AM, Powerball said:

DFW Summer 2023 summary:

*3rd warmest on record with an average of 88.7*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average high on record of 99.4*F (only behind 1980 and 2011)

*3rd highest average low on record of 78*F (only behind 2011 and 2022).

*4th driest on record with only 1.25" of rain.

*Tied for 2nd driest August on record with only a T of precipitation (2000 is the driest with 0.00" precipitation).

*6th warmest July on record with average of 89.3*F

*2nd warmest August on record with an average of 92.9*F (only behind 2011).

*47 days (and counting) of 100*F+ highs, tied with 2022 (so far) for the 6th highest in a year.

*44 days (and counting) of 80*F+ lows, 2nd highest in a year (only behind 2011 with 55 days)

*Hit 110*F twice (8/25 and 8/26), first time since 8/2/2011 and both being the 2nd + 3rd latest ever observed (latest being 9/4/2000).

*6th highest number of consecutive 100*F+ days on record (tied with 2022).

*26 days (and counting) of 105*F+ highs, 2nd highest on record behind 1980 (so far) with 28 days.

*All-time record maximum low of 86*F tied twice (8/7 and 8/8).

*Longest streak of consecutive 85*F+ lows on record with 6 days total (previous 3 records all tied for 2 days in 2011).

*Longest consecutive duration of 80*F+ temps on record (previous record set in 1998 with 358 hours).

*Highest number of days with a heat index of 110*F+ on record

*Tied (with 1980) for the highest heat index ever recorded of 117*F.

*Tied for the highest dewpoint ever recorded (80*F) on 6/15, the 2nd earliest on record in a year (earliest being 6/14) and the highest on record since 1997.

Now that the 90s & 100s seem to be mostly gone for good (for sure after this Thursday)...

Revisiting this post, it's crazy how many records we set or tied this Summer, for it being mostly backloaded.

1980 and 2011 both still reign as kings, but this year was definitely a solid runner up behind the 2 by most measures.

And that doesn't even speak to September. I suspect JAS period was also amongst the warmest on record for DFW, similar to how MJJ was in 2022.

[Chargers09]

So much for a wet/cool fall due to El Niño lol 

[DFWWeather]

18 hours ago, Powerball said:

Now that the 90s & 100s seem to be mostly gone for good (for sure after this Thursday)...

Revisiting this post, it's crazy how many records we set or tied this Summer, for it being mostly backloaded.

1980 and 2011 both still reign as kings, but this year was definitely a solid runner up behind the 2 by most measures.

And that doesn't even speak to September. I suspect JAS period was also amongst the warmest on record for DFW, similar to how MJJ was in 2022.

Nice write up summary about the summer of 2023 for DFW.

September 2023 came out to be the second hottest on record for DFW behind 2019* as the hottest. The avearage temp was 84.6°F. We did not fall below 60°F. There are only about 12 other years I think where we didn't fall below 60°F in September. Nearly all of the following winters were warm winters. So at this point, I am growing skeptical on a below normal winter like a lot of forecasters are suggesting just because of the El Niño. Even if you look at the top ten hottest September's on record, I believe there is only like one year where the following winter was cold. So odds are not very good that the winter of 2023-24 will be colder than normal, despite it being an El Niño.

*2019-2020 as we can all remember was also a warm winter with no snow or ice.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Although Canadian and GFS favors the really good (3 inch plus) rains along and generally W of I-35, half an inch to an inch here next week will be welcome.

[Powerball]

On 10/10/2023 at 1:50 PM, Powerball said:

Now that the 90s & 100s seem to be mostly gone for good (for sure after this Thursday)...

Revisiting this post, it's crazy how many records we set or tied this Summer, for it being mostly backloaded.

1980 and 2011 both still reign as kings, but this year was definitely a solid runner up behind the 2 by most measures.

And that doesn't even speak to September. I suspect JAS period was also amongst the warmest on record for DFW, similar to how MJJ was in 2022.

Welp, might have spoke too soon about those 90s, lol...

[cstrunk]

GFS is very consistent in showing solid to heavy rain for much of central/N/NW TX next week and beyond. Euro keeps any decent rainfall farther west with much lighter amounts. 

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks like Winter is coming to TX for next week and Halloween.

Since it's a shallow airmass diving south out of Canada, will be interesting to see just how cold NAM goes on temps in the state on new runs at the end of this week.

[Powerball]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Cold front is a day early per Thursday/Friday forecasts and about 6 hours early per last nights forecast.  Only a couple of hours away from Houston and it was forecast last night for the evening.  Noon CDT/11MDT map.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

0Z Friday PWAT on 12Z GFS AOA 2 inches along the coast ahead of the front.  Even DFW approaches.  (TT regional views don't have PWAT, tropical views do, looking at WATL)  5 inch Thursday into Friday bulleye near Victoria.  Nice rain forecast along the Texas coast, near or below an inch up in DFW.  Drought is sneaking back.

[Roger Smith]

I was reading elsewhere (NYC) that OKC set both a record high and low for the date on Nov 11, 1911. A strong cold front pushed through after it got up to 83F around early afternoon, and by late evening it was 17F. Both are still records today. Nov 12 also has a record low of 14F set in this event in 1911. It is probably the strongest cold front ever to cross regions of the central to eastern U.S. in weather observational history. Other stations set records too but few of those were both on Nov 11, they were highs on 11th and lows on 12th for other places. The front arrived after 0100h in eastern regions and there, the singularity is the drop between highs early 12th and lows later in the day. A strong low tracked OK-IA-ne ON into w Quebec to drag in the arctic air. 

[Chinook]

Finally the subtropical jet is starting to look like a real subtropical jet. There is a rain storm in the southern half of Texas and areas of the Mexican plateau tonight. This is the sort of thing that we are looking for to pick up with the El Nino. Really, this is the first incidence of an El Nino type storm for the southern USA. Obviously we are trying to break free from the grip of La Nina-based droughts in the South. Final posted image: compare this Drought Monitor to one from November 2011, after the La Nina of 2010-2011 (and continuing onward in 2011). In our current state, a minor La Nina held on for a long time, but it wasn't as strong as 2010-2011 winter

[Chinook]

I recently watched a video on Youtube, today, about the Cowboys vs. Dolphins memorable sleet-game of 1993, Thanksgiving Day, which was 11/25/93. Players were slipping on the sleet.

Let's take a look at the weather system. The cold front seems like it moved well southeast of Dallas by game time. There was precipitation in a band from SW to NE across the Southern Plains. Apparently this system gave all sleet to Dallas for before/during this game. The 850mb temperatures were above freezing according to this NARR reanalysis, and the 1000-500mb thicknesses well above the typical value 5400m for snow. Surface analysis by the NWS said Dallas had 31 degrees with a dew point of 15 degrees at 12z (6:00AM). By my guess, the surface temperature was just below freezing with sleet falling, and 850mb temperatures just above freezing to possibly 2 degrees C.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

17 hours ago, Chinook said:

I recently watched a video on Youtube, today, about the Cowboys vs. Dolphins memorable sleet-game of 1993, Thanksgiving Day, which was 11/25/93. Players were slipping on the sleet.

Let's take a look at the weather system. The cold front seems like it moved well southeast of Dallas by game time. There was precipitation in a band from SW to NE across the Southern Plains. Apparently this system gave all sleet to Dallas for before/during this game. The 850mb temperatures were above freezing according to this NARR reanalysis, and the 1000-500mb thicknesses well above the typical value 5400m for snow. Surface analysis by the NWS said Dallas had 31 degrees with a dew point of 15 degrees at 12z (6:00AM). By my guess, the surface temperature was just below freezing with sleet falling, and 850mb temperatures just above freezing to possibly 2 degrees C.

 

I was home from college in Bedford, TX, about 5 mile W of S end of DFW airport. IIRC, there was a little thunder.  I remember another sleet storm in DFW when I was in college which had fairly frequent lightning.  Probably during one of my ~1 month long Christmas breaks,

 

[Stx_Thunder]

On 10/5/2023 at 10:00 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

SETX doesn't have anywhere near as much severe weather in the Spring as NTX or STX because the NW Gulf is usually quite cool and more humid air from further in the Gulf on SE winds saturates and forms fog/low clouds which usually don't break until afternoon, which in combination with the EML on low-mid levels on SW flow off the higher elevations of Mexico means a cap that isn't broken the S part of the I-45 corridor.  This year there wasn't much severe down here, but it wasn't because of cold shelf waters.  Next year M-A-M, if the NW Gulf is again warm, might have the type of severe weather common in much of the rest of Texas.

Just to be clear, I was meaning convective or thunder patterns in general in that post I wrote. As they tend to be more erratic around TX during EN fall - spring seasons because of more persistent jet stream influence (than what's typically observed during LN ones). So it's not always clear how convective patterns will actually happen or evolve. Especially during the spring.

I'm very, Very well aware of the cap/EML and its effects on deep convection all around down here in Southern TX. As this region is basically 'CIN City', compared to the rest of the state (including but especially HOU region) to the point that the only real "guarantee months" for any kind of thunder day in STX is around May/June and September/October. Even without capping issues or severe, there's often another parameter for thunderstorms that's off such as limited moisture aloft, timing issues with incoming lift/dynamics, etc. Frontal scenarios (unless it's anafrontal but even that isn't much better scenario), are typically the worse down here for storms because of the veering SW boundary layer flow (like you mentioned). Which caps & dries the column out down here the most, first (before anywhere else north in the state). There's also been a few years during the past 2 decades where I've seen CINH values on SPC soundings in Brownsville/BRO having been close to 1,000 in March.

Overall, storms are trickiest to come by down here because most of the dynamics from shortwaves moving into or through the state from the west typically bypass the region to the north/east. It's literally almost always like that every year. Also, most of the deep convective or MCS scenarios through the Fall & Spring seasons are outflow-driven from initiated storms upstream like around CTX region. That tends to mitigate severe risk down here as well (more often than not).

So with all that in mind and from what I've seen up the TX coast on data over the past 2 decades, thunderstorms and severe ones overall have A Lot less trouble going on up there around Houston/SETX compared to down here (and even most of the state). You can clearly see that huge difference in the color area legends on the observed annual mean thunderstorm day climatology map on NOAA over the past 3 decades below:

 

- Reference: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/thunderstorms
 

On 10/29/2023 at 12:25 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Cold front is a day early per Thursday/Friday forecasts and about 6 hours early per last nights forecast.  Only a couple of hours away from Houston and it was forecast last night for the evening.  Noon CDT/11MDT map.

NAM always does best (temp & timing wise) with those colder, shallow frontal air masses coming out of Canada. It's been like that for years now. And that pretty dense one at the end of last October was no exception for NAM's performance.

TX NWS forecasters (especially at the Austin/San Antonio region office) always mention NAM's output in their AFD when those shallow fronts dive south into the state because they already know about that as well.

[Powerball]

DFW tied the record high of 80*F today, last set in 1977.

[Stx_Thunder]

As usual even with an almost fully due W capping/drying flow already established in the boundary layer ahead of a cold front, a number of storms still get going around Houston. It never fails in SETX even in winter.

Some pretty strong ones (and even a few severe warned ones in the past 2 hours) too with hail reported as VILs are reaching past 50 at times on radar even further southwest:

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It appears WPC isn't really buying it, but 0Z and 6Z Euro have a 2 to 4 inch rain bullseye general vicinity of Houston Christmas Eve.  GFS has the heaviest rain toward NC Texas.

[Stx_Thunder]

Thunder threat looking pretty good for most of coastal and eastern half TX this weekend. Especially with elevated mid-level LRs already in the 6 - 7 range in place here on coast in tonight's 0Z soundings and Euro/ICON consistently forecasting all week around 7 over the state.

Any severe still questionable if incoming trough is lower amplitude (DL shear by no means impressive at least for coastal region on globals), but at least a double round of storms basically guarantee now in both globals & CAMs in tonight's runs, Saturday - early Sunday.

[Powerball]

Merry Christmas on this day with ample sun and blue skies!!! 

#GodBlessTheSunbelt

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Cool and dry has been pretty boring (HGX AFD's main concern tonight is firework smoke will make local fog after midnight worse, then a half to an inch and a half Tuesday night into Wednesday with a coastal low) but maybe Friday afternoon/evening has a severe threat near and S of I-10.  850 mb winds are not from the SW, but the S.  Severe rarely happens near I-10 w/ a SW flow because of capping, but that doesn't look to be the issue.

 

Of course, CAPE is on the low side, but that can change.

[Powerball]

That EURO Control run is disgusting...

[Stx_Thunder]

Elevated thunder potential looking fairly decent today from San Antonio (maybe as far north as Dallas), and east with fairly steep mid-level LRs again (already evident on 0Z observed soundings tonight). Though, both GFS/Euro showing 60 F DPs creeping onto coastal bend later today before next cold frontal passage tonight with limited surface CAPE right onshore in tonight's ARWs & HRRR runs.

Unlike last system just before Christmas (even though there were some storms in the state & hail around Amarillo on 23rd), this one has much better DL shear over TX coastal region. Especially with a 150 kt UL jet max overhead. Might not be any severe onshore. Especially if marine warm front/surface Low tracks further offshore, but could be close call for mid TX coast as CAMs tonight showing formidable amount of MUCAPE getting closer to 1000. Which could be a sign of a more potent incoming mid-upper level Low. Especially seeing it right now on WV out there around Arizona border (deeper dry air wrapping on backside).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Day 17 15% from SPC.  I was looking at Friday, but it doesn't look like instability will be there for strong/severe.  Winds for Monday system look impressive.

[Stx_Thunder]

-  Seeing the evidence right now in EN/MJO influence as this incoming Low today is taking a MUCH further southward track and still tracking eastward entering the state near Midland (unlike ones ejecting further northeast through the panhandle and into plains during December), southeast of NM border.

[Stx_Thunder]

 

Near-sfc CAPE 1000, 7+ LRs, and 60+ kt effective shear over TX coastal bend this evening..

Fairly low FZL (for standards down here) also.

[Stx_Thunder]

 

- MUCH more southerly Low track (now near San Antonio), than what all the models predicted.. Still hasn't made that northeast ejection that should've happened toward NTX/OK..

[Powerball]

lol at the 12z GGEM.

Ain't gonna happen...