Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Powerball said: The CAMs get tantalizingly close to Houston with that complex. Probably a futile hope, but a month ago, on a day near 100 in Houston, storms forecast to arrive after midnight in the afternoon arrived just after Sundown. 97 mph wind gust at IAH is an all time record. NWS has 10% probs, which is probably about right. I'm going to water after mowing. That has a decent track record of making it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 With a high of 106*F, today is the new hottest day of the year for DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 As of 3pm, DFW is at 107*F, making it the new hottest day of the year.We're two degrees away from tying the hottest day of the year in 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 14 hours ago, Powerball said: As of 3pm, DFW is at 107*F, making it the new hottest day of the year.We're two degrees away from tying the hottest day of the year in 2022. The official high yesterday was 108*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Made it to 101F in Longview yesterday. My weather station shows a 77F dewpoint also and a 118F heat index. The airport south of town recorded 101F but a slightly lower dewpoint at that time (72F) which corresponds to a 112F heat index. SHV didn't pull the trigger on an excessive heat warning yesterday, but did for today and tomorrow. The dewpoints just aren't mixing out as much as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 19, 2023 Author Share Posted July 19, 2023 It was 100°F at Bush/IAH, but dewpoints mixed down to 71°F, it could have been worse. 2°F short of the 1980 record. I don't think Houston has broken a daily record yet. 98°F at 4pm. Nothing astounding, but GFS and Euro ensembles show some rain next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: It was 100°F at Bush/IAH, but dewpoints mixed down to 71°F, it could have been worse. 2°F short of the 1980 record. I don't think Houston has broken a daily record yet. 98°F at 4pm. Nothing astounding, but GFS and Euro ensembles show some rain next weekend. I don't believe DFW has yet either (during Met Summer). Several nightly maximum lows have been broken though. That said, DFW may be on track for a top 10 hottest July on record. It would be pretty impressive to achieve that back-to-back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 It's been hot but it's July 20th and Longview has only hit 100F once (officially, although my weather station did record 100F yesterday making it the second instance). We might do it again today, but even the forecast through next Wednesday doesn't have 100F temperatures. In fact, this weekend is forecast to be in the low-mid 90's. The humidity has been high, but overall, this summer could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: It's been hot but it's July 20th and Longview has only hit 100F once (officially, although my weather station did record 100F yesterday making it the second instance). We might do it again today, but even the forecast through next Wednesday doesn't have 100F temperatures. In fact, this weekend is forecast to be in the low-mid 90's. The humidity has been high, but overall, this summer could be worse. Parents got to 103 just NW of the city yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Between the Saharan Dust settling in and the death ridge seemingly not relenting, might have to begin worrying about drought conditions expanding across TX. A corridor along / just west of I-35 is already reporting severe to extreme drought conditions 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I hate this lol we’re already pushing almost 30 days of 100+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 24, 2023 Author Share Posted July 24, 2023 The dry front produced only very isolated storms over the weekend, and the official Houston high temp was 100*F. TV forecasters had been excited all week about the weekend's rain chances and cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Definitely seeing shades of 2022 with this Groundhog Day pattern. August will be the wild card in deciding whether this ends up being one of DFW's hottest summers on record. As it stands now, this will be a top 10 (if not top 5) hottest July on record, while the summer to-date is the 11th warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Oddly enough, the temp dropped to 97*F from 98*F as of the 3pm observation at DFW despite nearly full sunshine. Might see a brief break in the 100*F+ streak after all... EDIT: Welp, never mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 There are early indications that the ridge will finally break down by next weekend, and shift back westward over Phoenix, as blocking over Greenland intensifies. Probably not an earth shattering change though, just a return to seasonal temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 10 hours ago, Powerball said: There are early indications that the ridge will finally break down by next weekend, and shift back westward over Phoenix, as blocking over Greenland intensifies. Probably not an earth shattering change though, just a return to seasonal temps. No sign the drought anywhere in the state will improve anytime in August judging by Euro and GFS weeklies. Forecasts are as hot as anytime this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: No sign the drought anywhere in the state will improve anytime in August judging by Euro and GFS weeklies. Forecasts are as hot as anytime this summer. Precipitation is going to be a bit more tricky to predict beyond next week, especially for us in North Texas as it will be dependent on both the timing/strength/track of subtle shortwaves riding the edge of the flattening ridge and the influence of outflow boundaries from MCS in OK. We saw a similar pattern back in early/mid-June. I wouldn't expect the ensembles or weeklies to pick up on this either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 Houston forecast high of 104 °F today would be the warmest day so far this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 The record highs for DFW today and tomorrow are 106*F and 107*F respectfully. While low-hanging fruit compared to the records in 2011, 2022 and 1980, we have a decent shot at breaking or tying both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 9 hours ago, Powerball said: I find it interesting that prior to this year, all of the dry summer periods occurred prior to 1980. You also have to wonder if the dry conditions helped support the heat, to some degree. (Borderline days where moister existing conditions would have supported upper 90s, while drier soil allowed temps to crack 100+) Either way, it’s definitely been an anomalous pattern across the Southern Plains this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Quincy said: I find it interesting that prior to this year, all of the dry summer periods occurred prior to 1980. You also have to wonder if the dry conditions helped support the heat, to some degree. (Borderline days where moister existing conditions would have supported upper 90s, while drier soil allowed temps to crack 100+) Either way, it’s definitely been an anomalous pattern across the Southern Plains this summer. What's crazier to me is that all but one of the top 10 coldest Summers on record are from 30+ years ago (and most of them are from 50-100+ years ago). On top of that, DFW may just see back-to back top 10 hottest Summers on record if the current pattern continues through August (still skeptical). And that will mean 5 of the top 10 years for the hottest Summers would have been in the past 15 years. EDIT: And lastly, it would also be impressive for 2023 to achieve top 10 hottest Summer status without a single record high being tied/broken (still has yet to happen). EDIT 2: Disregard the 1st edit, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: What's crazier to me is that all but one of the top 10 coldest Summers on record are from 30+ years ago (and most of them are from 50-100+ years ago). On top of that, DFW may just see back-to back top 10 hottest Summers on record if the current pattern continues through August (still skeptical). And that will mean 5 of the top 10 years for the hottest Summers would have been in the past 15 years. EDIT: And lastly, it would also be impressive for 2023 to achieve top 10 hottest Summer status without a single record high being tied/broken (still has yet to happen). Welp, I spoke it into existence. As of 4pm, today's record high of 107*F has been tied at DFW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 I'm not sure I have ever seen cumulus buildups when it is 105°F (at DW Hooks, 101°F at the big airport) I doubt we'll see any rain (although I'd guess some lucky town somewhere in the Houston area will get some rain with gusty winds (30°F T/Td spread)) Edit- I've been in Monahans, TX, when it was over 110°F and dry lightning started a large brush fire, I don't know if the HGX area has ever had a dry lightning grass or forest fire. I was in Monahans the day they tied the Texas all time record of 120°F. Summer job, outside, in the oilfield. Nomex (fire resistant) clothing. 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 It's so hot that FWD can't even think straight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 The larger number is based on Lanza's forecast. The local Houston TV station with 10 day forecasts are calling for >100 °F every afternoon. Not that there is a big cool down in 11 or 12 days for Houston and Dallas if he is forecasting SAT to remain above 100 °F for the full 15 days of the GFS and various ensembles (at least seems to suggest he doesn't see the pattern changing. Also of note, red flag warnings from the San Antonio-Austin NWS office and critical fire danger over most of N Central Texas on SPC Day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 19 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: The larger number is based on Lanza's forecast. The local Houston TV station with 10 day forecasts are calling for >100 °F every afternoon. Not that there is a big cool down in 11 or 12 days for Houston and Dallas if he is forecasting SAT to remain above 100 °F for the full 15 days of the GFS and various ensembles (at least seems to suggest he doesn't see the pattern changing. Also of note, red flag warnings from the San Antonio-Austin NWS office and critical fire danger over most of N Central Texas on SPC Day 1 outlook. Models are still struggling with how to handle the overall pattern beyond Sunday, it seems in part because of the MJO. If the MJO remains in the COD (possible), it may supersede effects from the developing +PNA / -NAO / -AO which should allow for the hot & dry pattern to continue uninterrupted across much of the Southern Plains. But if the MJO sneaks into Phase 8 / Phase 1, that may translate to deeper and longer duration troughing, at least for the early part of next week. And of course regardless of the outcome with the upper level pattern, for North Texas there's still some question on a mesoscale level about the influence any outflow boundaries from nearby thunderstorms complexes in OK / AR will have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 This pattern is ass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Treating Extreme Heat in Dallas as a ‘Moral Issue’ https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2023/08/treating-extreme-heat-in-dallas-as-a-moral-issue/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 The end is in sight, the ridge shifts W, may be far enough from the ridge for 'ring of fire' storms in 8 or 9 days. Op GFS day 12/13 a tropical wave is coming ashore as a cold front enters the state. Rain and high temps in the 70s and 80s most of the state. In the meantime, Monday's predicted 104 °F for Houston will be the warmest day of the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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