Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow! I redid this trend for Harrisburg, PA, and snowfall has plummeted at a rate of 20" per century since 1950 for Harrisburg. That is wild.How in gods name is that trend line beginning calculated. Just look at the 50's vs 60's there. Linear regression does not work with this data. You need multiple exponential or more realistically a complex statistically regression outside my knowledge base. But the data does not line up with the regression lineSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 @ItstrainingtimeCongrats on 1st place it has been a long time for the O's. Good luck!!!! Definitely hope you take the Yanks down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Just now, paweather said: @ItstrainingtimeCongrats on 1st place it has been a long time for the O's. Good luck!!!! Definitely hope you take the Yanks down. Since Aug 2016 for alone in first. The Yanks are doing well taking themselves down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Euro closely matches the other two globals with the peak of next week's heat being Fri before the highs drop due to a front/rain and a trough backing in from the East over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 What in gods name was the point of that guys post when he won't actually engage or answer questions. I wholeheartedly support extremist on both sides of this be placed on a space ship together and shot out into the solar system where they can engage in what they love most and leave the actual problem solving to capable people not on ship. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: How in gods name is that trend line beginning calculated. Just look at the 50's vs 60's there. Linear regression does not work with this data. You need multiple exponential or more realistically a complex statistically regression outside my knowledge base. But the data does not line up with the regression line Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You don't need the line to see that it's been getting less snowy over the past 70 years. We've been getting more monster snowstorms since the 2000's but overall winters are less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: What in gods name was the point of that guys post when he won't actually engage or answer questions. I wholeheartedly support extremist on both sides of this be placed on a space ship together and shot out into the solar system where they can engage in what they love most and leave the actual problem solving to capable people not on ship. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I am working, so I didn't have time to respond. 1) I did not intend to cherrypick a date. I ran the analysis after seeing well-known Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider's map earlier today on Twitter. I wasn't even aware there was a negative trend in snowfall. 2) Brian's map ran from 1973 - a period of 50 years. I selected 1950 to integrate more data, and specifically chose that date because (1) that's around the time most observations moved to airports from city centers; and (2) observations prior to that timeframe include a lot of missing data and generally seem less reliable to me. I did not realize the 1960s were an unusually snowy period in eastern Pennsylvania. It was one of the least snowy decades at Pittsburgh. 3) Yes, the linear trend line is not a good fit. But that is, indeed, the best fit linear trend line calculated by Excel for each of those datasets. The r-squared value is very low, because the data is so noisy. You are not going to generate a strong fit with such noisy data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I am working, so I didn't have time to respond. 1) I did not intend to cherrypick a date. I ran the analysis after seeing well-known Alaskan climatologist Brian Brettschneider's map earlier today on Twitter. I wasn't even aware there was a negative trend in snowfall. 2) Brian's map ran from 1973 - a period of 50 years. I selected 1950 to integrate more data, and specifically chose that date because (1) that's around the time most observations moved to airports from city centers; and (2) observations prior to that timeframe include a lot of missing data and generally seem less reliable to me. I did not realize the 1960s were an unusually snowy period in eastern Pennsylvania. It was one of the least snowy decades at Pittsburgh. 3) Yes, the linear trend line is not a good fit. But that is, indeed, the best fit linear trend line calculated by Excel for each of those datasets. The r-squared value is very low, because the data is so noisy. You are not going to generate a strong fit with such noisy data. Thank you so much for responding. I was hoping to having a good conversation. I go on vacation Sunday. I'll have time to dig around all the analysis I did around this info and hopefully you have some insights. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 You don't need the line to see that it's been getting less snowy over the past 70 years. We've been getting more monster snowstorms since the 2000's but overall winters are less snowy.Oh God knows I know that. I'm just trying to figure out what percentage is do to longer cycles we may have no idea about, what part do to overall changing climate and how those two interact. Hubris in all directions is mankind's greatest enemySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Well I'm happy I'll be gone next week. Seems 90's start Tuesday and don't end till Saturday or Sunday with Friday and Saturday progged for mid to upper 90's. If MDT hits 98, what are your guesses for KCXY?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, paweather said: @ItstrainingtimeCongrats on 1st place it has been a long time for the O's. Good luck!!!! Definitely hope you take the Yanks down. Thank you very much! It has been a very long, painful process but I am proud as hell that the organization did it the right way. Very excited for the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 Jason Isbell is playing next to the river here Wednesday night. That’s gonna be hot af isn’t it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Jason Isbell is playing next to the river here Wednesday night. That’s gonna be hot af isn’t it. Hi 93Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Mow # 10 is a mere moment away.... probably the last one for the month. @Jns2183 all 3 main globals show the heat breaking after Friday with no extreme temps Sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Hi 93 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I might die lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 I might die lol If I were here I'd offer you a whiskey cocktail on the houseSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Hi 93Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkYou going? I’ll be there roasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thank you very much! It has been a very long, painful process but I am proud as hell that the organization did it the right way. Very excited for the future. Definitely future looks good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Windows open 55 this Am. Smattering of 40's along the Northern Tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 58 this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 62.8FBeautiful summer morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Several suites, mesos and global, have some decent cells in or near the LSV tomorrow afternoon. Has not been talked about much. Zones are ignoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Looks like our monsoon will finally get started out here this weekend, particularly Sunday. Now is when the weather gets interesting in the desert, but it's harder to figure out if you're going to get slammed or not, as the monsoons most often pulse and form along outflow boundaries. Although when we get a good valley-wide meso, it's an awesome show of some of the most intense lightning, wind, and rainfall you'll ever see. One of the best I saw was when I lived in Avondale, along I-10 in the west valley. One dropped down from the north, and one came up from the southwest, and merged right over the area, and created one of the best natural "fireworks shows" I'd ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Looks like our monsoon will finally get started out here this weekend, particularly Sunday. Now is when the weather gets interesting in the desert, but it's harder to figure out if you're going to get slammed or not, as the monsoons most often pulse and form along outflow boundaries. Although when we get a good valley-wide meso, it's an awesome show of some of the most intense lightning, wind, and rainfall you'll ever see. One of the best I saw was when I lived in Avondale, along I-10 in the west valley. One dropped down from the north, and one came up from the southwest, and merged right over the area, and created one of the best natural "fireworks shows" I'd ever seen. Canderson is attending a concert out there next weekend so hopefully it dodges his area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Canderson is attending a concert out there next weekend so hopefully it dodges his area. Wait...Canderson is going to be in Phoenix? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Wait...Canderson is going to be in Phoenix? Maybe he's coming out and gonna bring you back to Pa. I think Bubbler has a ransom on you. And if Canderson completes the mission, he gets a roll of shingles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 39 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Maybe he's coming out and gonna bring you back to Pa. I think Bubbler has a ransom on you. And if Canderson completes the mission, he gets a roll of shingles. Omg...too funny!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 22, 2023 Author Share Posted July 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Canderson is attending a concert out there next weekend so hopefully it dodges his area. Hahahaahahaha well played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 22, 2023 Author Share Posted July 22, 2023 67 was my low. It’s 73 at 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Some valley locations like Marsh Creek bottomed out at 59.8 this AM only 62.9 here in East Nantmeal. Today will be our 6th straight below normal temperature day. This cool streak looks to continue until Tuesday. By mid week we will see a big warmup with a great chance that even East Nantmeal and the ridge locations in the county may see their 1st 90 degree day in over 2 years! Friday looks like it may be the peak heat day. So enjoy the great weather this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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