Anduril Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 59 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Anyone have any clue regarding those velocity returns south of Mechanicsburg by dillsburg I posted last night? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I think based on beam height it was probably measuring winds at 10k ft or more so might not have been mixing down at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 12Z HRRR has some scattered tack on showers for the Central and Eastern LSV this afternoon going into this evening then a Chamber Day tomorrow. Highs near 80 in the LSV with DP's 50-55 in the afternoon. Still a signal for some upper 40's near the NY border tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 At least she got good sleep. I can't believe I stayed up for that. We suffer much more than sport fansSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z HRRR has some scattered tack on showers for the Central and Eastern LSV this afternoon going into this evening then a Chamber Day tomorrow. Highs near 80 in the LSV with DP's 50-55 in the afternoon. Still a signal for some upper 40's near the NY border tomorrow AM. Going to an outdoor show near Philly tomorrow evening - it should be super, super pleasant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: Going to an outdoor show near Philly tomorrow evening - it should be super, super pleasant. Would be hard to pick a better late July evening to do it...at least weatherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, canderson said: Going to an outdoor show near Philly tomorrow evening - it should be super, super pleasant. Do you ever spend a weekend in Harrisburg, PA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Do you ever spend a weekend in Harrisburg, PA? Not many Saturdays! lol Although I think for the month of August we have no plans outside going to DC for a weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 76.6 at 11:50am. Not too bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 55 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Do you ever spend a weekend in Harrisburg, PA? Weekends for many people Weekends for other people 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 MU's Elliott on the remainder of summer: By the end of next week, the large, semi-permanent Jet Stream ridge that has been responsible for the recent stretch of brutal, record-breaking heat cross the southwestern United States may shift into the central U.S. and expand its grasp over most of the nation. If this comes to fruition, then a bonafide heat wave could occur during the last few days of July, and more extreme heat could be lurking in August. Odds favored the second half of this summer being much hotter than the first, and it certainly appears that that will indeed be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott on the remainder of summer: By the end of next week, the large, semi-permanent Jet Stream ridge that has been responsible for the recent stretch of brutal, record-breaking heat cross the southwestern United States may shift into the central U.S. and expand its grasp over most of the nation. If this comes to fruition, then a bonafide heat wave could occur during the last few days of July, and more extreme heat could be lurking in August. Odds favored the second half of this summer being much hotter than the first, and it certainly appears that that will indeed be the case. Let's enjoy what we have now then I guess. 73 and mostly cloudy nooners.... MDT running a not too crazy 1.7 AN at this point. That will go back a bit the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott on the remainder of summer: By the end of next week, the large, semi-permanent Jet Stream ridge that has been responsible for the recent stretch of brutal, record-breaking heat cross the southwestern United States may shift into the central U.S. and expand its grasp over most of the nation. If this comes to fruition, then a bonafide heat wave could occur during the last few days of July, and more extreme heat could be lurking in August. Odds favored the second half of this summer being much hotter than the first, and it certainly appears that that will indeed be the case. Can we ban you for bringing that evil info here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 21, 2023 Author Share Posted July 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott on the remainder of summer: By the end of next week, the large, semi-permanent Jet Stream ridge that has been responsible for the recent stretch of brutal, record-breaking heat cross the southwestern United States may shift into the central U.S. and expand its grasp over most of the nation. If this comes to fruition, then a bonafide heat wave could occur during the last few days of July, and more extreme heat could be lurking in August. Odds favored the second half of this summer being much hotter than the first, and it certainly appears that that will indeed be the case. Might hit 100 midweek next week in Minneapolis. That's how legit this heat is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Weekends for many people Weekends for other people Better than my weekendsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Anduril said: Can we ban you for bringing that evil info here? I regretted it the moment I posted it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 The public sucks. We need another five pandemics. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: The public sucks. We need another five pandemics. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Careful what you ask for. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 19 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Lot of cooler nights coming up (modeled) may pull some of those numbers back a bit. I expect to see some non HIA lows in the 40's in N PA. The next few days will likely drop those figures a bit, but modeling shows hotter weather moving in by middle of next month and perhaps through the end of the month. Therefore, I felt pretty comfortable that the final figures should be fairly similar to the current ones (and possibly, a bit higher depending on how the heat performs later this month). The fact that upper 40s in northern Pennsylvania is a big deal now just shows how these changes have been normalized. There have been years where the mean minimum at Bradford for the entire month of July was in the 40s, including as low as 47.3 in 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Can Elliot at MU manifest pestilence? Because I'm all-in for ten pestilence.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: The next few days will likely drop those figures a bit, but modeling shows hotter weather moving in by middle of next month and perhaps through the end of the month. Therefore, I felt pretty comfortable that the final figures should be fairly similar to the current ones (and possibly, a bit higher depending on how the heat performs later this month). The fact that upper 40s in northern Pennsylvania is a big deal now just shows how these changes have been normalized. There have been years where the mean minimum at Bradford for the entire month of July was in the 40s, including as low as 47.3 in 1971. I agree that the heat is definitely normalized. The adjustment of the 30-year norms also hides or normalizes things a bit. MDT is only 1.7 AN right now for July but 30 years ago it would have been a higher departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 On 7/17/2023 at 1:44 PM, TimB said: I’m highly skeptical of the Brookville data. The 99/44 and even the 86/37 seem too good to be true. Look at Pittsburgh’s data for the same dates. There’s no way it was 11 degrees warmer in Brookville than Pittsburgh on 7/16, or 13 degrees warmer on 7/30. I had responded earlier, noting the daily high shift from the actual observations. This site reported a 7 am observation time - which was pretty rare in the 1930s. Most sites observed temperatures between 5 and 8 pm, which resulted in "double counting" of high temperatures, relative to a midnight-to-midnight day. Also missed the occasional midnight daily lows that occur. What appears to happen is the algorithm used to clean these records up assumed the high temperature was being assigned to the day on which it was measured, and so it shifted them all back since the high actually would have occurred the prior day. However, it appears that this observer was already making that shift, ascribing the max temperature at 7 am to the prior day and the low to the day on which it was observed. So the algorithmic shift incorrectly bumped all the highs to the day prior to when they occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Showers popping up just west of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Not worth too much dissection but the LR GFS goes norm or below after this VERY hot day next week...including a partly cloudy day with highs in the 70's and lows in the 40's and 50's. 300 temp maps will change a lot of times between now and then, but a trough backs in from the Atlantic to squash the heat wave here. CMC supports it through the 10-day run. Also, a 'Cane hitting NO/LA at day 9. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 MU's Elliott on the remainder of summer: By the end of next week, the large, semi-permanent Jet Stream ridge that has been responsible for the recent stretch of brutal, record-breaking heat cross the southwestern United States may shift into the central U.S. and expand its grasp over most of the nation. If this comes to fruition, then a bonafide heat wave could occur during the last few days of July, and more extreme heat could be lurking in August. Odds favored the second half of this summer being much hotter than the first, and it certainly appears that that will indeed be the case. There was a big nature paper in May I think, that did a large study of the transition phases into el nino years combined with new climate data that basically predicted a hot August in the mid Atlantic to northeast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: Might hit 100 midweek next week in Minneapolis. That's how legit this heat is. Let's hope we get cold like this in the winter time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow! I redid this trend for Harrisburg, PA, and snowfall has plummeted at a rate of 20" per century since 1950 for Harrisburg. That is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 The trend at Williamsport is even worse. A loss of about 26" per century. Wow - I had no idea the situation was so bleak on that side of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow! I redid this trend for Harrisburg, PA, and snowfall has plummeted at a rate of 20" per century since 1950 for Harrisburg. That is wild.Cherry picking data. The 1960s were so far outside the norm from the point of record initiation till then that by 1970 I believe the 1960s held the top 4 out 5 and 6 or 7 out of ten winters over the previous 90 years. A decade like that was so far outside the previous 90 years and the following 50 where I truly wonder how it happened Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Wow! I redid this trend for Harrisburg, PA, and snowfall has plummeted at a rate of 20" per century since 1950 for Harrisburg. That is wild.If anything the past 30 years have fallen in the feast or famine regime. Crazy amazings storms that were unprecedented or not snow at all. The change is in the 3-6, 6-12 snow storms. They don't happen. It's nothing or 18"+ with some minors thrown in. Basically our only snow in 2016 was out all time record blizzard of 34". The 80s were worse than 90's and 2010'sSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 The trend at Williamsport is even worse. A loss of about 26" per century. Wow - I had no idea the situation was so bleak on that side of the state.Take the analysis back to 1900 and then try to figure out some snowfall totals from early decades compared to the 1960's and present. I think part of the discrepancy is definitely climate, but a big part also seems like a natural cycle for part of it. Let me know if you can teaseout the correlation coefficients for each part. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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