Central PA Summer 2023

[canderson]

Hey it’s raining 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Hey it’s raining 

Looks like you are about to get a good drenching because of course you are…..Harrisburg. 

[Newman]

A couple trees down across York city according to some SPC storm reports

[canderson]

30 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Looks like you are about to get a good drenching because of course you are…..Harrisburg. 

Not much - .05. I missed it almost entirely again for the 4th time today 

[pawatch]

63 degrees for this mornings low.
.CLIMATE...
With 13 days left in the month, 2023 ranks as the 8th wettest
July at Williamsport with total rainfall of 7.69 inches. This
total is likely to increase through month end with only 0.31"
needed to crack the top 5 wettest on record.

Top 10 wettest July at Williamsport
1.  2018 11.99"
2.  1992 9.65"
3.  1958 8.30"
4.  1928 8.02"
5.  1908 8.01"
6.  2004 7.99"
7.  1947 7.79"
8.  2023 7.69"
9.  2017 7.45"
10. 1956 7.17"

 

[Bubbler86]

37 minutes ago, pawatch said:

63 degrees for this mornings low.
.CLIMATE...
With 13 days left in the month, 2023 ranks as the 8th wettest
July at Williamsport with total rainfall of 7.69 inches. This
total is likely to increase through month end with only 0.31"
needed to crack the top 5 wettest on record.

Top 10 wettest July at Williamsport
1.  2018 11.99"
2.  1992 9.65"
3.  1958 8.30"
4.  1928 8.02"
5.  1908 8.01"
6.  2004 7.99"
7.  1947 7.79"
8.  2023 7.69"
9.  2017 7.45"
10. 1956 7.17"

 

According to multiple mesos and globals, some areas north of Harrisburg to the NY line could see 2-4" in the next 24 hours. 

[mahantango#1]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

According to multiple mesos and globals, some areas north of Harrisburg to the NY line could see 2-4" in the next 24 hours. 

Say it isn't so!

[Bubbler86]

 

5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Say it isn't so!

There are some others which have nothing in your area.  One had 4-6" just east of Harrisburg. A forecasting mess.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

There are some others which have nothing in your area.  One had 4-6" just east of Harrisburg. A forecasting mess.

That 4-6 would definitely cause problems.

[Bubbler86]

57 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

That 4-6 would definitely cause problems.

Those 2-4" progs North of Harrisburg would cause flooding with the amounts of rain they have already had. Think you will still be in a drought (D0) on the map this AM?  I think D1 for my area though it is really D2 or D3 within my small area.   I am over 10" behind for the year now.   2-3" behind for June and July alone. 

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Those 2-4" progs North of Harrisburg would cause flooding with the amounts of rain they have already had. Think you will still be in a drought (D0) on the map this AM?  I think D1 for my area though it is really D2 or D3 within my small area.   I am over 10" behind for the year now. 

Yes I noticed with the last rain we had when the creek came up it didn't go back down right away within a day as it usually does in the summer, with a summer downpour. It is still up a little. I know that the water table is getting replenished. So any heavy downpours will make the creek rise fairly quickly. When the creek gets to over 6.5ft. my garden will start taking on water.

[Itstrainingtime]

Total rainfall yesterday was .09" after the shower that rolled through just before midnight.

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those 2-4" progs North of Harrisburg would cause flooding with the amounts of rain they have already had. Think you will still be in a drought (D0) on the map this AM?  I think D1 for my area though it is really D2 or D3 within my small area.   I am over 10" behind for the year now.   2-3" behind for June and July alone. 

Really think you should be D2 at least but will they paint that for such a small area?

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Really think you should be D2 at least but will they paint that for such a small area?

I doubt it being on the line between D1 and D0 last time, but the area is bigger than 2020.   Most of Central MD especially to my South and Southeast are in the same boat.  Some of them were D2 last week. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

.13" of rain last evening.  Alright kids, help me out.  My wife and I are taking some friends out on the boat Friday morning (arriving ~10am).  I've been pouring over the guidance all week and I'm pretty secure in the fact that things will be cleared out by then, and tend to do so rather quickly when the disturbance sweeps through.  However, there is some guidance (primarily the NAM) that wants to keep some showers lingering around through the mid to late morning hours.  I think we'll be in for a mostly beautiful day, in what is a transition day to a beautiful weekend.  What say ye?

Also, has anyone else noticed that Monday keeps consistently showing up as a day with widespread storms on virtually all the modeling?

[Bubbler86]

I have this hanging in my place...confounds people when they look at it as it is hard to read a map with this orientation as well as minimizing many of the big LSV cities.   I find that focusing on the M/D line helps me with orientation a bit when looking at it.   I love old man winter blowing winds from the NE and South. 

 

[Bubbler86]

USGS pointing out that some farmers are going to lose their corn. 

Northeast Drought Summary

Heavy rains again soaked much of the Northeast Region last week. Very little dryness remains to the east of a line from the Chesapeake Bay to the east shore of Lake Ontario, with D1 confined to a few spots in south New Jersey and in part of the New York City metro. Heavy rains in the central Appalachians have also nearly eliminated dryness in West Virginia. But large dry areas persist from northern Virginia and Maryland northward through western sections of Pennsylvania and New York, with severe drought (D2) covering central Maryland and adjacent south-central Pennsylvania. According to USDA, 33 percent of pastures in Maine are in poor or very poor condition, as are 16 percent of Pennsylvania’s pastureland.

Full Summary

 

[Streak]

11 hours ago, Storm Clouds said:

I can confirm that was a legit storm that rolled through central York county. Honestly it was probably the best storm we’ve had all season here so far…only lasted like 5 minutes, but it packed a punch with heavy rain and probably a couple 30mph wind gusts. Recorded .71 in the gauge. 

Yes, my own rain gauge showed a hair over .50. Hopefully more to come next week. We still plan to be very frugal with water usage but the water pressure seemed a little better this morning than it has for the past couple months. 

[Bubbler86]

29 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.13" of rain last evening.  Alright kids, help me out.  My wife and I are taking some friends out on the boat Friday morning (arriving ~10am).  I've been pouring over the guidance all week and I'm pretty secure in the fact that things will be cleared out by then, and tend to do so rather quickly when the disturbance sweeps through.  However, there is some guidance (primarily the NAM) that wants to keep some showers lingering around through the mid to late morning hours.  I think we'll be in for a mostly beautiful day, in what is a transition day to a beautiful weekend.  What say ye?

Also, has anyone else noticed that Monday keeps consistently showing up as a day with widespread storms on virtually all the modeling?

With the ULL spinning to our north I say you are probably good but should keep the stink eye to your NE.  The HRRR. RRFS and WRF also develop a scattered line of storms that goes through or near Lanco around lunch.  

[Itstrainingtime]

44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.13" of rain last evening.  Alright kids, help me out.  My wife and I are taking some friends out on the boat Friday morning (arriving ~10am).  I've been pouring over the guidance all week and I'm pretty secure in the fact that things will be cleared out by then, and tend to do so rather quickly when the disturbance sweeps through.  However, there is some guidance (primarily the NAM) that wants to keep some showers lingering around through the mid to late morning hours.  I think we'll be in for a mostly beautiful day, in what is a transition day to a beautiful weekend.  What say ye?

Also, has anyone else noticed that Monday keeps consistently showing up as a day with widespread storms on virtually all the modeling?

Last thing I want to do is give you wrong advice about Friday. I do think the day is when we transition into a nicer pattern...MU's Elliott also mentioned a scenario that Bubbler shared regarding the NAM's depiction of one last line rolling through midday. If that doesn't materialize the day will end up dry.

SPC was touting Monday in yesterday's Day 4-8 outlook. They seemed concerned about a potential severe outbreak. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I doubt it being on the line between D1 and D0 last time, but the area is bigger than 2020.   Most of Central MD especially to my South and Southeast are in the same boat.  Some of them were D2 last week. 

I knew that south of you there was a big area of D2, I wasn't sure how they had fared over the past week. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last thing I want to do is give you wrong advice about Friday. I do think the day is when we transition into a nicer pattern...MU's Elliott also mentioned a scenario that Bubbler shared regarding the NAM's depiction of one last line rolling through midday. If that doesn't materialize the day will end up dry.

SPC was touting Monday in yesterday's Day 4-8 outlook. They seemed concerned about a potential severe outbreak. 

Wrong advice is welcomed haha!  But yeah, I have been seeing the potential for that midday line for a while now but even if it does pop much of the guidance has it firing east of the river and pulling away quickly.  Needless to say, I will be watching the 12z runs closely.

As an aside, it can actually be fun trying to outmaneuver storms while on the boat.  Not severe obviously but just run of the mill stuff.  When you have a weather nut at the helm with a high-def radar in-hand and about a 10 mile length of surface water to traverse, it's actually not all that hard at times to just outrun little cells to to the north or south.  Then laugh maniacally as you see others getting dumped on a couple miles away.  Hey, it's the little things ha.

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I knew that south of you there was a big area of D2, I wasn't sure how they had fared over the past week. 

Welcome to D0!

 

[ChescoWx]

Nice day today with high temps not too far from normal. Rain chances ramp up again toward tomorrow morning with some models showing another inch of rain for parts of the county. We should have a near perfect weekend with near normal temps for late July.

Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 48 (1966) / Rain 4.78" (1979)

[canderson]

Is this where I retell the story of me getting caught in a tornado around 1 a.m. while crappie fishing and the storm broke our lines (we were tied up under a bridge) and capsized our boat? And we had a dog with us? 

That SUCKED.

[Bubbler86]

Model trust....which model does every one check first as the one they trust the most say for mid-term weather or short-term?   I just went to look for the DP's on Sunday and I go to the GFS just out of habit.  If it was for Friday, I would pick the HRRR.  I like the Nam but mostly for stormy situations.   It is too cool with nice day temps.

So, for me, I go to the GFS midterm and HRR for under 24 hours.    Rarely check the Euro anymore.

 

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Is this where I retell the story of me getting caught in a tornado around 1 a.m. while crappie fishing and the storm broke our lines (we were tied up under a bridge) and capsized our boat? And we had a dog with us? 

That SUCKED.

Bahahahaha, I mean, not that it would have been funny to be in that.  But please do tell!  Don't think I've been privy to that one.

 

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Model trust....which model does every one check first as the one they trust the most say for mid-term weather or short-term?   I just went to look for the DP's on Sunday and I go to the GFS just out of habit.  If it was for Friday, I would pick the HRRR.  I like the Nam but mostly for stormy situations.   It is too cool with nice day temps.

So, for me, I go to the GFS midterm and HRR for under 24 hours.    Rarely check the Euro anymore.

 

 

 

All of them ha.  But primarily, for mid/long range I use GFS/Euro and for short term I glance at everything but go to HRRR and 3k NAM first.  HREF is great if you can find it and the new RRFS has had its share of wins and has me intrigued.  Have not been impressed with the FV3 but still glance at it.  Again, all of it.  I'm a junkie. 

[Newman]

Could be a wild late night tonight with a line of storms rolling through between 1-4am. SPC has expanded a slight risk into the area for tonight's threat with mention of all hazards. There's a potent shortwave moving through north of us and we'll have a strong low level jet to sustain the squall and advect moisture/warmth overnight. NWS State College also highlighting a likelihood of severe level storms overnight 

[Newman]

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Bahahahaha, I mean, not that it would have been funny to be in that.  But please do tell!  Don't think I've been privy to that one.

 

All of them ha.  But primarily, for mid/long range I use GFS/Euro and for short term I glance at everything but go to HRRR and 3k NAM first.  HREF is great if you can find it and the new RRFS has had its share of wins and has me intrigued.  Have not been impressed with the FV3 but still glance at it.  Again, all of it.  I'm a junkie. 

It's why wind scares me now - well one of the reasons. 

We saw the storm off in the distance and assumed staying tied up under the bridge was better than racing back 50 or whatever minutes to the dock in the middle of the night in a storm on a lake that has a ton of trees. 

Winds kicked up and the rubbing of the lines around the bridge posts snapped them and our boat got whipped around out into open water and then flipped. 

it was my parents, me and our little puppy - we were with friends and had planned to go back around 1 am but the fishing was so good we didn't leave. Than the storm. 

Since we were close to a bridge we could get to embankment. I can't remember how we were found - I was a teenager and that is not in my memory but this was before cell phones (mid 90s). I assume a driver saw us.