paweather Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Perfect! Each of those scenarios sounds really nice... Please...I am begging you...no wishing for Halloween snow this year. Don't jinx another winter! First to call this is the year of Halloween SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 - the formally vaunted European model actually did pretty well with precip this past weekend if I remember correctly? I have not gone back to check but do remember it was one of the initial few that suggested the FFW's were mostly over kill. It has not done that well other times I have looked at it including over stating rain a lot early summer. Unscientifically I feel like it has been a Spring and Summer for models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, paweather said: First to call this is the year of Halloween SNOW! Columbus day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I have not gone back to check but do remember it was one of the initial few that suggested the FFW's were mostly over kill. It has not done that well other times I have looked at it including over stating rain a lot early summer. Unscientifically I feel like it has been a Spring and Summer for models. I thought you might have posted a run where it showed less than a tenth of inch of rain for most of us - pretty much spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I thought you might have posted a run where it showed less than a tenth of inch of rain for most of us - pretty much spot on. Yep, it was a day or so before the event. A lot of models were bailing at that point. The FFW, though not hurting anyone, did surprise me. Easier to say now after it is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Late nooners...filtered sunshine and 80. Close to as smokey as it has been this summer. State of the grass below (not under shade). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Late nooners...filtered sunshine and 80. Close to as smokey as it has been this summer. State of the grass below (not under shade). Sad - that's what less than 3" of rain since May will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sad - that's what less than 3" of rain since May will do. Single digit mow count. It had started to grow after the rain 8 days ago but has sunk back down again. That notice we got from the water company tried to play off the "Do not water your grass" by saying if you water it the roots get weak. I am sure there is some science behind that, but the grass does not go dormant and just sit there like that. Unlike in the winter when it is frozen, the summer sun dries it out and eventually kills it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12Z 3K and HRRR favor the western and North Central LSV with the rain tonight. 12Z GFS goes Uber dry after Friday. The RGEM has quite a bit of LSV coverage this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Will be interesting to see how the last two weeks of the month play out. Very warm start to July. The current mean of 70.3F at Bradford would be good for second place (out of 66 years), behind only the incredibly scorching July of 2020. The current mean of 72.5F at DuBois would be good for 4th place (out of 59 years): NOTE: The late 1980s data is probably unreliable, since it was likely measured with an HO-83 thermometer, which has been shown to produce a warming bias of greater than 1 degree Celsius, especially in the summertime. So, in reality, all of the warmest months are probably from the 2010s and 2020s. Looking at some locations with longer "threaded" histories. Some of the earlier figures are probably too warm due to issues with equipment, exposure, and siting. But a similar story emerges. Due to the recent trends, I've included the corresponding ranking excluding post-2010 years, which I feel provides a better historical context for the heat. 10th warmest on record at Harrisburg, PA (out of 136 years) [prior to 2010, this would be ranked 4th warmest]: 9th warmest on record at Mount Pocono, PA (out of 114 years) [prior to 2010, this would be ranked 4th warmest]: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Will be interesting to see how the last two weeks of the month play out. Very warm start to July. The current mean of 70.3F at Bradford would be good for second place (out of 66 years), behind only the incredibly scorching July of 2020. The current mean of 72.5F at DuBois would be good for 4th place (out of 59 years): NOTE: The late 1980s data is probably unreliable, since it was likely measured with an HO-83 thermometer, which has been shown to produce a warming bias of greater than 1 degree Celsius, especially in the summertime. So, in reality, all of the warmest months are probably from the 2010s and 2020s. Looking at some locations with longer "threaded" histories. Some of the earlier figures are probably too warm due to issues with equipment, exposure, and siting. But a similar story emerges. Due to the recent trends, I've included the corresponding ranking excluding post-2010 years, which I feel provides a better historical context for the heat. 10th warmest on record at Harrisburg, PA (out of 136 years) [prior to 2010, this would be ranked 4th warmest]: 9th warmest on record at Mount Pocono, PA (out of 114 years) [prior to 2010, this would be ranked 4th warmest]: The nonscientific eye test for all locations shows 31 total dates of which 22 happened since 2000. Pretty easy to get the idea there. To make it worse, if you add just one year and go back to 1999 you have 24 out of 31 or 77% in a 25 year period. The top two only being 59 and 66 years seemingly dilutes it a bit but not really. Just take the bottom two....16 of the 20, or 80%, have happened in the last 25 years. 2023 TBD of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 I have been seeing a lot of discussion about July 1936 on Twitter, and the incredible heat of that month. Looking at the data from Pennsylvania, it appears to have been a very pleasant month by modern standards. Outside of a fairly extreme 8-day heat wave, it was quite cool away from the cities and their inflated temperature readings. This is one heck of a way to run the allegedly hottest month on record. Looking at MPO, we see a mean temperature of 66.0F, roughly 5 degrees cooler than 2023. Looking at the Brookville FAA Airport site in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania - which is not threaded with the current Jefferson County Airport [KDUJ], but would be the best source of comparison -- we find a mean temperature of 67.7F, is nearly 5 degrees cooler than 2023 to date at DUJ. Also an unbelievably, refreshing mean monthly low of 49.6F - something never seen today in Pennsylvania at low elevations (maybe even high?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 I'm appreciating the lower humidity today. Not nearly as swamp assy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I have been seeing a lot of discussion about July 1936 on Twitter, and the incredible heat of that month. Looking at the data from Pennsylvania, it appears to have been a very pleasant month by modern standards. Outside of a fairly extreme 8-day heat wave, it was quite cool away from the cities and their inflated temperature readings. This is one heck of a way to run the allegedly hottest month on record. Looking at MPO, we see a mean temperature of 66.0F, roughly 5 degrees cooler than 2023. Looking at the Brookville FAA Airport site in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania - which is not threaded with the current Jefferson County Airport [KDUJ], but would be the best source of comparison -- we find a mean temperature of 67.7F, is nearly 5 degrees cooler than 2023 to date at DUJ. Also an unbelievably, refreshing mean monthly low of 49.6F - something never seen today in Pennsylvania at low elevations (maybe even high?). When I picked the random MDT month to review, last week, 1988 stands out a lot more to me than something like a 1936. Not as much for averages which were held back a bit by a few nice days mixed in vs. a hot stretch. 14 of 15 days over 90 and 4 over 100. 1936 at MDT did have 4 days 100 and over but only a total of 9 days 90 and over for the entire month. 1988 had 16 days 90 and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I have been seeing a lot of discussion about July 1936 on Twitter, and the incredible heat of that month. Looking at the data from Pennsylvania, it appears to have been a very pleasant month by modern standards. Outside of a fairly extreme 8-day heat wave, it was quite cool away from the cities and their inflated temperature readings. This is one heck of a way to run the allegedly hottest month on record. Looking at MPO, we see a mean temperature of 66.0F, roughly 5 degrees cooler than 2023. Looking at the Brookville FAA Airport site in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania - which is not threaded with the current Jefferson County Airport [KDUJ], but would be the best source of comparison -- we find a mean temperature of 67.7F, is nearly 5 degrees cooler than 2023 to date at DUJ. Also an unbelievably, refreshing mean monthly low of 49.6F - something never seen today in Pennsylvania at low elevations (maybe even high?). I’m highly skeptical of the Brookville data. The 99/44 and even the 86/37 seem too good to be true. Look at Pittsburgh’s data for the same dates. There’s no way it was 11 degrees warmer in Brookville than Pittsburgh on 7/16, or 13 degrees warmer on 7/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I honestly thought your number would be higher...I was hoping you'd respond because I wasn't sure how high it would be. Low 80s is perfection, although I don't mind even the 110s out here. The usual lack of humidity helps. Right now, I'm waiting outside for my delivery store to open their door and even at 108, with the dry air and the breeze, it's not that bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: I'm appreciating the lower humidity today. Not nearly as swamp assy. Lower humidity? My dewpoint is 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Lower humidity? My dewpoint is 70 DP/radar combo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Lower humidity? My dewpoint is 70 Mine is 62 - but was in the 50s at lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, canderson said: Mine is 62 - but was in the 50s at lunch Wow - nothing close to that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Lower humidity? My dewpoint is 70 Looks like my lowest dew today at home was 66 and that was very brief. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wow - nothing close to that here. One of his neighbors must have left their fridge door open. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 17, 2023 Author Share Posted July 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wow - nothing close to that here. Maybe I need to restart my sensor - it can get buggy sometimes if not restarted. It doesn't feel that bad to me though - did some weeding and mow #12 at lunch and didn't get hot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Bad news for potatoes on the 18Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 hours ago, TimB said: I’m highly skeptical of the Brookville data. The 99/44 and even the 86/37 seem too good to be true. Look at Pittsburgh’s data for the same dates. There’s no way it was 11 degrees warmer in Brookville than Pittsburgh on 7/16, or 13 degrees warmer on 7/30. So I looked into this, and for whatever reason, the official numbers at Brookville have the high temperatures shifted forward one day versus the raw observation. So they actually reported a high of 88 and low of 44 on the 16th, and a high of 73 and low of 37 on the 30th, and so the actual observed high was exactly the same as observed at AGC on those dates. Lows were much lower, but I would argue it's the AGC low temperatures that are too high [perhaps due to the rooftop exposure in place at the time]? The lows of 37 and 39 to close the month might seem unbelievable, but I would point out that New Cumberland Lock and Dam in northern West Virginia, just west of Beaver County, Pennsylvania, had lows of 36 degrees on both of those dates. In any case, it's the official Pittsburgh numbers that are the outlier that month. I would suggest part of it is from the observations being at AGC at the time, and a big part the rooftop exposure of the equipment resulting in higher minima than would have been observed on the ground. Regardless, 75.0F at AGC is not that impressive. That's 0.4F less than the month to date there. And just since the ASOS was installed at AGC in 1998, this figure has been exceeded 10 times, excluding this year (which is still in progress). Assuming it stays above 75F this month, that will be 11 times in 25 years. New Castle 1N - a GHCN station - had a mean of 71.2F, 1.9F below the 1991-2020 average. Like the Brookville data, this data also has been time-shifted from the observations, so there are weird diurnal range discrepancies. Morgantown, W. Va. was 72.8F, 1.3F below the 1991-2020 average. The mean minimum temperature of 58.2F is fourth lowest out of 140 years of records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Bad news for potatoes on the 18Z HRRR Yea well can't do anything about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Welcome to Convection Radar Club. The first rule of Convection Radar Club is: you do not talk about rain until it is falling from the sky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Welcome to Convection Radar Club. The first rule of Convection Radar Club is: you do not talk about rain until it is falling from the sky. That is so true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Welcome to Convection Radar Club. The first rule of Convection Radar Club is: you do not talk about rain until it is falling from the sky.I need the buy you about a 4 oz pour of McAllen 18 after this god forsaken summerSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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