Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 It is disgusting out. That is all. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Shear values today are going to be way way higher than modeled. That with the absolute swamp ass of an air mass equals somebody around here is going to get a "surprise" walloping from a storm. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It is disgusting out. That is all. Carry on. 91/72 = disgusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Our first 90 is in the books...90 on the dot. Edit-Just opened the mail and we are under voluntary water restrictions. No after 10AM outdoor water use (car washes, watering, etc) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Loud thunder here but the rain is 2 miles north moving away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Our first 90 is in the books...90 on the dot. Edit-Just opened the mail and we are under voluntary water restrictions. No after 10AM outdoor water use (car washes, watering, etc)If you got 8" in one storm, would anything happen besides some flash flooding and people critical that somehow they are still under a drought but rainfall is "normal"Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 30 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If you got 8" in one storm, would anything happen besides some flash flooding and people critical that somehow they are still under a drought but rainfall is "normal" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 8" in one storm would help the creeks and ground water. Would not make a difference to the vegetation. 1" is the same as 8" to the green stuff. It rained about 1" here on Sunday and if I mowed right now it would be a dust bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 I found a NWS co-op station about a quarter mile from my house. Looks like 118 might be our high for the day as it's after 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 CTP just pulled the trigger and issued a Flood Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Take your pick. Both stations are equal distance from my house... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: Take your pick. Both stations are equal distance from my house... What I take from that is a refreshing dewpoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Earlier a few hrs ago they said the threat of heavy rain was east of us. Now this, what changed? Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 644 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-160645- /O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0004.230715T2244Z-230716T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Mount Union, Sunbury, Bloomsburg, Lewisburg, York, Huntingdon, Lancaster, Hershey, Chambersburg, McConnellsburg, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Mifflintown, Lebanon, Danville, Carlisle, Berwick, Newport, Gettysburg, Lewistown, Shamokin, and Pottsville 644 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following counties, Adams, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Perry, Schuylkill, Snyder, Union and York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact the watch area this evening. Hourly rainfall rates of as much as 2 to 3 inches will pose an isolated flash flood risk in any areas where repeat rainfall develops. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 In Pittsburgh and feel fringed hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Man, you look at that and read the just updated AFD from CTP and someone or something is going to bust hard... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Man, you look at that and read the just updated AFD from CTP and someone or something is going to bust hard... There is no model that I saw, except the Nam 12, that shows heavy rain west of the Susky and most not even east until you get far east near Philly. Rgem has heavy rain in Lanco. Even the Rap has jumped ship on excessive rain. Both the Rap and HRRR move that inital shield on radar north of the LSV. But it is convection so who knows. They could be spot on at the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There is no model that I saw, except the Nam 12, that shows heavy rain west of the Susky and most not even east until you get far east near Philly. Rgem has heavy rain in Lanco. Even the Rap has jumped ship on excessive rain. Both the Rap and HRRR move that inital shield on radar north of the LSV. But it is convection so who knows. They could be spot on at the NWS. Thanks for posting. I'm a little confused by CTP- they talk about 2-3" of rain in the flood watch text but my forecast is for far less. More in line with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 There is no model that I saw, except the Nam 12, that shows heavy rain west of the Susky and most not even east until you get far east near Philly. Rgem has heavy rain in Lanco. Even the Rap has jumped ship on excessive rain. Both the Rap and HRRR move that inital shield on radar north of the LSV. But it is convection so who knows. They could be spot on at the NWS. I think the issue is the error range on mesos recently with convection. It's been pretty big. If the ingredients are there, what do you do?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 This is one recent run of HRRR. It changed constantly Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, Jns2183 said: I think the issue is the error range on mesos recently with convection. It's been pretty big. If the ingredients are there, what do you do? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I think their AFD is a bit wishy washy which is fine...they say there is a chance due to the pwats but are also saying..."Eh, the flash flood values are a bit high". I do not blame them but still really question whether we get an area wide flooder. But once I saw the FFW I went right to the HRRR and it still did not look impressive. It is not just simple qpf values on the HRRR, the prog moves the greatest potential around the LSV. Good discussion and interesting to watch either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: This is one recent run of HRRR. It changed constantly Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk True, just nothing except the Nam 12 shows heavy rain west of the Susky (that I could find). (Edit, the FV3 looks similar to the Nam, did not check that before). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 GUYS I found a place that makes mead across from a Ukrainian church - and they play 30 year old WWF matches! Pittsburgh isn’t that bad aside from the insane hills 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 It is very dark to my west right now. I really need a rainer tonight....1/2" is perfectly fine. Paw Paw taking it on the chops but all that stuff would life west of me, going to need to development to the South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 FFW watches are almost like the opposite of WSW. No one cares if they are hoisted, but god damn, if there are no warnings before something hits people get mad. We can try to be all technical with when they should be presented, and there are standards within the NWS, but lest we forgot, they are issued for the benefit of the public at large; thus human psychology and nature absolutely should be as important driver as actual weather. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: FFW watches are almost like the opposite of WSW. No one cares if they are hoisted, but god damn, if there are no warnings before something hits people get mad. We can try to be all technical with when they should be presented, and there are standards within the NWS, but lest we forgot, they are issued for the benefit of the public at large; thus human psychology and nature absolutely should be as important driver as actual weather. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I put FF Watches on the same level as Tornado watches. Nothing is imminent but watch the sky. I think being night makes it something to consider as well re: driving into water that you cannot see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 GUYS I found a place that makes mead across from a Ukrainian church - and they play 30 year old WWF matches! Pittsburgh isn’t that bad aside from the insane hills I'm from Pittsburgh orginally. There's a reason so many movies are filmed. Amazing little ethnic enclaves with awesome local restaurant and bars. Plus the local music scene is top 10 nationwide. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 In defense of the HRRR, this is a pretty spot on depiction of the current radar so initializing is not an issue even if it ultimately is very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 730 updateSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, canderson said: GUYS I found a place that makes mead across from a Ukrainian church - and they play 30 year old WWF matches! Pittsburgh isn’t that bad aside from the insane hills I remember mead from stuff I read in college. What does it taste like? It is wine, isn't it? As I recall, the old beers were very low alcohol because people drank them a lot due to water so bad. Does mead pack any kind of punch? I can't believe I am talking about mead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I remember mead from stuff I read in college. What does it taste like? It is wine, isn't it? As I recall, the old beers were very low alcohol because people drank them a lot due to water so bad. Does mead pack any kind of punch? I can't believe I am talking about mead!I've made mead. It can certainly pack a bunch if you wanted it to. Also people back in the day drank a lot more than todaySent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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