Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 34 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: No worries mate. I’m actually happy with it. Cooled things off for most of the evening and was a nice peaceful rainfall. I see Harrisburg is being hit again by some popups. Those guys just can’t miss this year ha. It is a theme that runs well past this year. Congrats on two hits today! Lol. Drought over! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 Was at friend’s in Linglestown and they got dumped on but nary a drop at home in HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 62 this Am..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 This morning's AFD snippet... As we head into the weekend with unprecedented temperatures, highs in the 115-120 degree range and lows in the mid-80s to mid-90s, nearly all lower desert/valley locations will experience Major HeatRisk while most populated areas, including Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro, will experience Extreme HeatRisk. For many, the high temperatures this weekend will be the hottest ever experienced. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 48 minutes ago, Voyager said: This morning's AFD snippet... As we head into the weekend with unprecedented temperatures, highs in the 115-120 degree range and lows in the mid-80s to mid-90s, nearly all lower desert/valley locations will experience Major HeatRisk while most populated areas, including Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro, will experience Extreme HeatRisk. For many, the high temperatures this weekend will be the hottest ever experienced. "You got gas to drive to Furnace creek, right? "What, no I thought you got gas!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Sounds like it could be an active and noisy night. Hope there is a good lightning show tonight. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before 5am, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Patchy fog after 2am. Low around 71. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 558 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 PAZ004-036-056-057-059-063>066-161000- Warren-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 558 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible from late this afternoon through tonight. Heavy rain is expected from some of the thunderstorms and may lead to flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain are possible on Sunday. The rain may lead to flooding. Heavy rain is again possible later Monday and Monday night. SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... PWAT does reach 2" in the SE late today per latest HREF mean values. Heavy rain will, again today, depend on having repeated cells pass over the same area. Storm motions should be generally W-E or slightly N of E. FFG is lowest in the middle and upper Susq. They are gradually lowering with each day as we have rain streak across the area. Have considered a flash flood watch. Will continue to consider one, mainly for the SE and EC counties, where the latest model trends place the heaviest rain/storms this evening. Looks like there should be a fair amount of time for the dayshift to further diagnose/divine where it might be best to post one (if at all). As the evening continues, the storms will likely cluster over the SE close to the old boundary and along the gradient of 1.75-2" PWAT which will be working northward. Forcing swings by during the middle of the night, clearing out the west of any showers/storms there in the evening, and eventually pushing most of the the storms out of the Susq Valley and to the east of the CWA before sunrise. Will continue to mention heavy rain in the wx grids. SPC MRGL risk is drawn over most of the area, mainly for wind, but a small risk of hail and tornadoes is painted for the Alleghenies/NW as the shear will be better there. Newest (06Z) NAM delays exit of the storms to the east, and is more aggressive with rainfall on Sunday than the GFS. With the rainfall later today and tonight being heaviest in the E, and the bulk of rain expected to be in the E again on Sunday, the flooding risk will continue. It will likely be foggy again tonight, esp if clearing becomes complete in areas (W). Temps stay AOA normals thru the period. Sunday may be a few degs cooler than Sat and Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 A low of 68 here and a robust .07” of rain. I need to sneak a mow in later today before these potential gutter gushers move through. A lot of water to be wrung out from these skies for those who get (un)lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Latest HRRR has an eastern LSV winner run for late night tonight. Line forms near the Susky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Latest HRRR has an eastern LSV winner run for late night tonight. Line forms near the Susky. Is that all for tonight? NWS makes it sound like its all night till the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Is that all for tonight? NWS makes it sound like its all night till the wee hours of the morning. There are some suites that have very little rain tonight. Rgem looks like a bigger event where a front takes advantage of moisture laden air but here is the 3K through this time tomorrow. Most suites have 1/2" -3/4" maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There are some suites that have very little rain tonight. Rgem looks like a bigger event where a front takes advantage of moisture laden air but here is the 3K through this time tomorrow. Most suites have 1/2" -3/4" maxes. The half to three quarter i'll take. I just hope we don't get the hard downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: The half to three quarter i'll take. I just hope we don't get the hard downpours. Model wise, the Rgem is the only "major meso model" that shows excessive rain near you. It is convection though (even at night) so just using the models mostly for timing discussion. Each suite is pretty unique. Fv3 is a shutout for East LSV. The Fv3 is supposed to be America's new main Meso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Just popped up the Euro for the first time in ages....it is mostly dry through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Just popped up the Euro for the first time in ages....it is dry through Monday. What model are you placing your $1000.00 bet on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: What model are you placing your $1000.00 bet on? It is convection so none of them beyond some interesting model discussion. I think there are too many with questionable precip profiles to assume we have an area wide slam dunk tonight. Remember we had a Meso Analysis circle over us a few days ago (I think you posted actually) and only a small strip from Hershey to Myra were the ones that I remember seeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Flood Watch National Weather Service Binghamton NY 352 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-044-047-048-072-151600- /O.NEW.KBGM.FA.A.0007.230715T2200Z-230717T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Honesdale, Walton, Equinunk, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford, Monticello, Damascus, Scranton, Oneonta, and Delhi 352 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York, Delaware, Otsego and Sullivan. In northeast Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Wayne. * WHEN...From this evening through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Much of the area has become nearly saturated from recent heavy rainfall. The ground will be very sensitive to any heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is convection so none of them beyond some interesting model discussion. I think there are too many with questionable precip profiles to assume we have an area wide slam dunk tonight. Remember we had a Meso Analysis circle over us a few days ago (I think you posted actually) and only a small strip from Hershey to Myra were the ones that I remember seeing anything. Yes I think I posted it. At this point its a crap shoot until we see it on radar (if there is anything) later today or tonight. But its still interesting. Just hoping for a great lightning show after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Weather World on to something near the end of July? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: "You got gas to drive to Furnace creek, right? "What, no I thought you got gas!" I've felt 125 degrees before in Bullhead City, but that 135? Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 43 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Weather World on to something near the end of July? I’d like that Cool down next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: How much for MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Mow #13 is in the books for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 40 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: How much for MDT? Storms and rumors of storms. El Nina and La Nino warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Storms and rumors of storms. El Nina and La Nino warning. The trend is our friend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Today in Chester County weather history back in 1988 we hit the 100 degree mark for the first time since 1966. Since 1988 we have hit the 100 degree mark only 1 time - that was on August 2, 2002. We have reached the century mark a total of 41 times since 1894. In the 40 years since observations began at elevations above 640 feet (1983) we have experienced only 2 such days. The decade with the most 100 degree days was the 1st decade of the 1900's with 13 days over 100 degrees! There were no 100 degree days recorded in the 1920's / 1970's / 1990's/ 2010's or so far in the 2020's. Not only will we not see a 100 degree day this month...I don't see any chances for a 90 degree day across most of the county during the rest of July. This will continue our streak of no 90+ days since June 30, 2021. Rain chances ramp up by tomorrow AM with some models showing 1.5" to 2" of rain. Records for today: High 100 (1998) Low 50 (1895) / Rain 1.76" (1926) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 8:30am (early PA nooners) current temperature: 101 degrees. Can we get to 120 today? If we do, it'll only be the fourth day in Phoenix weather history that it would have done so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Late nooners in emmitsburg MD. 89 and considerable cloudiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 About to head to Pittsburgh - I think most of the our region east of Carlisle gets heavy and strong storms overnight. I’ll predict a .8” MDT total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Late nooners in emmitsburg MD. 89 and considerable cloudiness. Full sun here but the same 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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