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Central PA Summer 2023


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13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

So we'll have to wait for better model consensus till then.  

I would think there is a good chance of rain Thursday night.  Even if not heavy/it is just scattered.  We got 1" of rain Sunday and already have to water the plants and veggies (potted and in ground) so it will be welcome if we can get some.   Grass is more resilient and would be good until Thursday. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I would think there is a good chance of rain Thursday night.  Even if not heavy/scattered.  We got 1" of rain Sunday and already have to water the plants and veggies (potted and in ground) so it will be welcome if we can get some.   Grass is more resilient and would be good until Thursday. 

I am up to 4.37 on the Ambient and 4.67 on the Accurite for the month. Both gauges are accurate with light and moderate rain. But when it pours the Accurite totals are more. So I guess i';ll have to put out my standard gauge to compare them when it pours. The rain is welcome but I at least should have a few more days to dry out untill the next bout comes. Hopefully you'll get more later this week. I'll pass on the next rain chance.:D

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10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I am up to 4.37 on the Ambient and 4.67 on the Accurite for the month. Both gauges are accurate with light and moderate rain. But when it pours the Accurite totals are more. So I guess i';ll have to put out my standard gauge to compare them when it pours. The rain is welcome but I at least should have a few more days to dry out untill the next bout comes. Hopefully you'll get more later this week. I'll pass on the next rain chance.:D

I will take 1/2" every 2-3 days over 2" in a day and nothing for a week. 

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I will take 1/2" every 2-3 days over 2" in a day and nothing for a week. 
Sure seems like mother nature loves to screw with us with how she distributes rainfall in winter vs summer (i.e stratiform vs convection) vs what is actually best for gardens

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Just now, Jns2183 said:

Sure seems like mother nature loves to screw with us with how she distributes rainfall in winter vs summer (i.e stratiform vs convection) vs what is actually best for gardens

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Yea.  Timing of the day is important as well.  I think 1/2" of rain at 10 in the morning followed by baking July sun is less beneficial than 1/4" of rain at 8PM.   

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Yea.  Timing of the day is important as well.  I think 1/2" of rain at 10 in the morning followed by baking July sun is less beneficial than 1/4" of rain at 8PM.   
I'm dead serious when I say all those overcast/misty and smoke filled days in May/june saved a lot of grass and gardens here

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8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm dead serious when I say all those overcast/misty and smoke filled days in May/june saved a lot of grass and gardens here

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Definitely some smoke in the skies once again today. 

Definitely helped the grass.  If it were cloudy all the time, we would be fine with rain once or twice every two weeks.   A little smokey over here as well. 

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Definitely helped the grass.  If it were cloudy all the time, we would be fine with rain once or twice every two weeks.   A little smokey over here as well. 
If it was cloudy all the time the rest of the forum would be chasing us with a rope

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6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

https://blogs.millersville.edu/news/2023/06/27/gap-filling-weather-radar-installed/

It's installed. Will be operational by beginning of fall classes

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I will be curious to see how publicly available the data is made.  From reading an LNP article on it the other day, it wasn't clear to me if it's going to be primarily for university use or widely distributed to the public.  I also got the impression that companies like RadarScope won't have access to it.  Hope I'm wrong.  Can't imagine they wouldn't want it to be widely available given all the hoopla about it.

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I will be curious to see how publicly available the data is made.  From reading an LNP article on it the other day, it wasn't clear to me if it's going to be primarily for university use or widely distributed to the public.  I also got the impression that companies like RadarScope won't have access to it.  Hope I'm wrong.  Can't imagine they wouldn't want it to be widely available given all the hoopla about it.
Basically it's going to come down to if we have to pay to access it

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It looks like a couple slightly above normal temp days are on tap for the area over the next couple of days. However, 90 degree plus temps look to yet again miss most of Chester County. Later tomorrow the weather looks to get a bit unsettled again with a good chance of showers and t-storms by Thursday night and chances continue through much of the upcoming weekend.
Records for today: High 99 (1936) / Low 45 (1898) / Rain 2.09" (2009)
image.png.134b20ac5e2fd7f77c3e509ab9e38559.png
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12Z GFS and Nam 12 both are not all that thrilled about Thur night now.  GFS clips me as the precip is fading but Nam is a big nothing. 
image.thumb.png.d963824aa808e17c00dccd35259b7a64.png
 
The NAM delays shit hit to morning Friday. At some point timing matters for instability. Another point is I've gone to using ensembles for anything over 48 hours and only use HRRR or NAM3k for 3 maybe 6 hours at a time. Because the mesos between 6-48 have been that bad

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36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The NAM delays shit hit to morning Friday. At some point timing matters for instability. Another point is I've gone to using ensembles for anything over 48 hours and only use HRRR or NAM3k for 3 maybe 6 hours at a time. Because the mesos between 6-48 have been that bad

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I think the ensembles were just as bad this past winter.   It was just more voices with bad info.   If I had a dollar for every time I was told that bad news on the Op's did not mean anything because the ensembles said so......Not to say models should not be used but it has been a bruising journey the last 6-12 months. 

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