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Central PA Summer 2023


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29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Up 15
York springs 0.68"
Dillsburg 1.16"
Rossmoyne 2.38"
Camp Hill 2.23"

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As you have done before, it is important to look at it over a longer-term view.   Much of the area around Harrisburg does not have that large of a yearly deficit now but some of the more southern stations could get 1" a week and still be near double digit deficits yearly at the end of 4 weeks.   With my near 1" today that gives me 2.8" in the last ~4 weeks meaning I am about 1" further in the hole now than I was on June 12th.  

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As you have done before, it is important to look at it over a longer-term view.   Much of the area around Harrisburg does not have that large of a yearly deficit now but some of the more southern stations could get 1" a week and still be near double digit deficits yearly at the end of 4 weeks.   With my near 1" today that gives me 2.3" in the last ~4 weeks meaning I am about 1 1/2" further in the hole now than I was on June 12th.  
Truthfully you in the south need to hit the convection lottery or we are going to soon have a 10" difference (40%) in just 40 miles. Which is why I asked what's the shortest difference ever between a D2+ and no drought

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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Truthfully you in the south need to hit the convection lottery or we are going to soon have a 10" difference (40%) in just 40 miles. Which is why I asked what's the shortest difference ever between a D2+ and no drought

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I have a contact at the USGS and internally they rate small areas differently than what you see on the weekly map re: my area is actually D2 right now, but they cannot have chicken pox like variances on the maps. I am surprised they have that small blotch of D1 in between the D2 LSV areas as it is now.  So, I am sure they have D2 to no drought internally over very short distances, but it has been rare to never that I have seen it in PA on the weeklies. 

 

 At one point in 2020 I was 11" below normal for a four-month period while Harrisburg was renting Kayaks on Front Street.   I did a Photoshop of Canderson riding the rapids in Harrisburg.  That Spring and Summer I had a total ~2" of rain for most of April, May, June and July.   I do not keep records like many here but I think I had no events over 1/4" over that approx 120 day span.   So, we had the D2 50 miles from no drought scenario. 

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10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm half sure someone is going to show some map from Kansas that has 20miles between no drought and d4, and I'll have no clue how it's possible but fully understand how farmers would think they are cursed.

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Here is a piping hot cup of Indiana for you.   Two areas where D2 abnd bno drought are a county or two apart.  Also, a D3 to no drought over a couple counties in Missouri. 

 

image.thumb.png.11d18a5ff3dc437661cf4ea7ed240606.png

 

 

 

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I have a contact at the USGS and internally they rate small areas differently than what you see on the weekly map re: my area is actually D2 right now, but they cannot have chicken pox like variances on the maps. I am surprised they have that small blotch of D1 in between the D2 LSV areas as it is now.  So, I am sure they have D2 to no drought internally over very short distances, but it has been rare to never that I have seen it in PA on the weeklies. 
 
 At one point in 2020 I was 11" below normal for a four-month period while Harrisburg was renting Kayaks on Front Street.   I did a Photoshop of Canderson riding the rapids in Harrisburg.  That Spring and Summer I had a total ~2" of rain for most of April, May, June and July.   I do not keep records like many here but I think I had no events over 1/4" over that approx 120 day span.   So, we had the D2 50 miles from no drought scenario. 
I was very curious of what kind of consistent weather co-op footprint your valley has. Is this wide variance just random or if there is a record of this in the summer going back 50+ years. I can see topographicly how the ridges either side of you can screw with convection creating a rain shadow, but your comment about being above KMDT in winter threw me for a loop. I know miller b screw zones are statistically not far to your west so it left me wondering what type of systems producing what type of precipitation from what angle do you excel at?

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Here is a piping hot cup of Indiana for you.   Two areas where D2 abnd bno drought are a county or two apart.  Also, a D3 to no drought over a couple counties in Missouri. 
 
image.thumb.png.11d18a5ff3dc437661cf4ea7ed240606.png
 
 
 
I figured with how conectivly driven their precipitation is over an extended length of time. I wish there was a method to determine the rate and variance of our convective driven precipitation vs stratiform that can be applied back in time to see changes and trends.

Isn't our favorite meteorologist that graduated from millersville, took a job at Midland NWS, and informed us a month or so ago he was moving back to area and working for WPC? He would have all the skills and data at his fingertips to solve this riddle if it can be solved.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Everyone got goods right? No one mixed out much? I mean some got way cray amounts but everyone got at least 1”? 

Not me up here in Williamsport. Just checked and before noon Montoursville Airport is down for .45 and for afternoon .08. But I knew we didn't get that much this morning and I checked two Williamsport weather stations on Wunderground: .11 and .16 earlier this afternoon before my nap. 

So about .5 for Montoursville and .25 for us five miles away, assuming we also got the .08. 

Whatever else we get isn't going to make much difference. Lots of days have rain in 10 day forecast, two about .5 so farmers have something to look forward to.

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