Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm at 2.12" and .67", respectively. Hoping for rain minus severe. Funny how close we are this month....both monthly and "wet period". We had to resume watering this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Funny how close we are this month....both monthly and "wet period". We had to resume watering this AM. Yes sir...meanwhile, a detailed update from MU moments ago: (1/3) A vigorous, upper-level disturbance over the Great Lakes region and potent, surface cold front will combine to trigger showers and scattered severe thunderstorms across northern MD and central/southeastern PA between ~2-10 PM today.. (2/3) The warm, humid & highly unstable air mass ahead of the front will support locally damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail, isolated tornadoes & flooding of low-lying/poor-drainage areas. Partial sunshine is already fueling the instability, & dewpoints are near 70°F.. (3/3) Tree, powerline & roof damage are likely in the hardest-hit locations, & large hail could damage roofs & vehicles. A Flood Watch is in effect for eastern PA. If a #SEVERETHUNDERSTORMWARNING or #TORNADOWARNING is issued, seek shelter in an interior room/basement immediately! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes sir...meanwhile, a detailed update from MU moments ago: (1/3) A vigorous, upper-level disturbance over the Great Lakes region and potent, surface cold front will combine to trigger showers and scattered severe thunderstorms across northern MD and central/southeastern PA between ~2-10 PM today.. (2/3) The warm, humid & highly unstable air mass ahead of the front will support locally damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail, isolated tornadoes & flooding of low-lying/poor-drainage areas. Partial sunshine is already fueling the instability, & dewpoints are near 70°F.. (3/3) Tree, powerline & roof damage are likely in the hardest-hit locations, & large hail could damage roofs & vehicles. A Flood Watch is in effect for eastern PA. If a #SEVERETHUNDERSTORMWARNING or #TORNADOWARNING is issued, seek shelter in an interior room/basement immediately! Yea, the severe nuts can keep that. Give me a soaking downpour for 15 min and I count that as a big win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, the severe nuts can keep that. Give me a soaking downpour for 15 min and I count that as a big win. yep, hope it stays south of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 With the Atlanta area experiencing what they did yesterday with a 20% chance of storms forecasted and what Houston experienced last week with 10% chance, I'm going to bet we get our best rains when they are not forecasted Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: With the Atlanta area experiencing what they did yesterday with a 20% chance of storms forecasted and what Houston experienced last week with 10% chance, I'm going to bet we get our best rains when they are not forecasted Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Something that is a common occurrence with rain...but snow not so much. I think of Jan 25, 2000 but much rarer we get an area wide snowstorm that is not forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 Sun just broke through here in HBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Bust calls have commenced from our southern neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bust calls have commenced from our southern neighbors. Losing the HRRR hurts and the other meso's back tracked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Something that is a common occurrence with rain...but snow not so much. I think of Jan 25, 2000 but much rarer we get an area wide snowstorm that is not forecasted. Two totally different modes of precipitation. We still are horrible at convection compared to all else. Look at past week or any hurricane forecastSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Losing the HRRR hurts and the other meso's back tracked. Storm just popped. Let's see what comes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Jns2183 said: Two totally different modes of precipitation. We still are horrible at convection compared to all else. Look at past week or any hurricane forecast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk That is a good thought but even non convection rain events surprise more than snow. But yea, we are terrible at anything convection related (not so great at wind forecasting either.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Storm just popped. Let's see what comes Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I am not throwing in the hat vs. mentioning why people are yelling bust. All model talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Also, the broken line (it congeals for Lanco and East) now being shown on the 3K does not come through until mid-evening. At 6Z it keyed on energy earlier in the day but has backed it out to what it was showing yesterday. So, that is 6-7 hours away and cannot call bust on that one yet :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 It's actually a really nice day up here. I wasn't expecting much to begin with and the weather girl on our local CBS substantiated such, but I wasn't expecting a nice morning, either. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Also, the broken line (it congeals for Lanco and East) now being shown on the 3K does not come through until mid-evening. At 6Z it keyed on energy earlier in the day but has backed it out to what it was showing yesterday. So, that is 6-7 hours away and cannot call bust on that one yet :-) I was thinking about that when I was reading MU's thoughts - originally it seemed like the "prime time" for us was this afternoon, but he extended the active weather until 10pm this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 It’s gross here. 84/70 at 12:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s gross here. 84/70 at 12:15. Ditto on both here...and the sun is being filtered more by the high clouds. Not sure we make 90 if the cloud deck stays present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 The more sun we get in this atmosphere the more likely we get a decent line. Just the outflow from a few storms will cause a chain reaction I suspect Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Got lightning by Mechanicsburg and Williams Grove Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 That cell grew from below 10k to over 34k in about 18 minSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 I hear thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I hear thunder. Another Harrisburg rain appears imminent albeit it not exactly a large cell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I hear thunder. Special Weather Statement just went up for that cell - hey, another Harrisburg jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Special Weather Statement just went up for that cell - hey, another Harrisburg jackpot. Other boards yelling bust, HRRR showing no rain, not near enough to stop the Harrisburg/near West Shore rain train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 They expanded the enhanced risk further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: They expanded the enhanced risk further west. Sure did! Got most of the LSV in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: They expanded the enhanced risk further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 That was a major expansion of enhanced. This storm is feeding currently and growing exponentially Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I hear thunder.That was @sauss06 with a beer fart.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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