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Central PA Summer 2023


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18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I have been completely screwed here all day, fringed in every way imaginable on all sides with every cell or band.  Serves me right for staying positive haha.  Glad to see others are making out well though. 

You are just missing a nice blob of rain to your east. I'm in East Pete and it's a deluge.

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It's super humid, misting, with low visibility and low ceiling.

Looked at WPC 7 day rain forecast. Ranges from 1"-1.25" down by Bubbler ramping up to 2" for Mechanicsburg, Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster and ramping up further as you go northeast with Pottsville looking at 3"+

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1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

It's super humid, misting, with low visibility and low ceiling.

Looked at WPC 7 day rain forecast. Ranges from 1"-1.25" down by Bubbler ramping up to 2" for Mechanicsburg, Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster and ramping up further as you go northeast with Pottsville looking at 3"+

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How much for Marysville…. & Philly?!

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48 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Marysville 2", Philadelphia 1.25", king of Prussia 2", Allentown 3", Poconos 4"+

State College 1.5", Clearfield 1", Williamsport 2"

Johnstown, Altoona, Pittsburgh 0.50"

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I probably post more WPC maps than anyone in here, but they have really struggled this week. Earlier in the week their 5 day map ending 7am Sunday had me between 3-5". With a day to go I'm sitting at .66" and there are quite a few with less than me.

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I probably post more WPC maps than anyone in here, but they have really struggled this week. Earlier in the week their 5 day map ending 7am Sunday had me between 3-5". With a day to go I'm sitting at .66" and there are quite a few with less than me.
True, the thing is earlier in the week most models were showing a strong upper low in southwestern pa at this time pumping our area with 4 standard Deviation for this time of year easterly low level jet. That idea fell apart hard 24-36 hours ago on globals but mesos were still unsure and a mess. Frankly models the past month with this very unique pattern have been a bit of a hot mess nationwide but in a manner such that they nail stuff perfectly for awhile then majorly shit the bed for a bit. You saw some issues with the severe/flooding threat in gulf coast, and you saw all short term models completely whiff on storms even effecting Houston last night let alone 90mph winds, while still nailing the severe storms further west. Don't really know what you can even do. It's like nailing 90% of the nationwide forecast while whiffing bad on 10%, just that the area you whiff on is randomly generated each day

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I believe Rex blocks have a long detailed and studied history of causing fits for models. Throw in that we've had for the last few years patterns that seem to get "stuck" for much longer time periods than climo says, upper lows being notoriously fickle, and driving convection as main precipitation mode and you get models that in long term default more and more on climo when pattern is unknown, thus leading to this situation. They did nail the cloudy "rainy weather for days part". I think them drawing a big circle over the northeast and Mid-Atlantic with a caption saying "cloudy, dreary, wet, rainfall between .50" and 6" next 3 days, we will let you know which camp you are in as convection fires each day" wouldn't go over to well.

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6 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

True, the thing is earlier in the week most models were showing a strong upper low in southwestern pa at this time pumping our area with 4 standard Deviation for this time of year easterly low level jet. That idea fell apart hard 24-36 hours ago on globals but mesos were still unsure and a mess. Frankly models the past month with this very unique pattern have been a bit of a hot mess nationwide but in a manner such that they nail stuff perfectly for awhile then majorly shit the bed for a bit. You saw some issues with the severe/flooding threat in gulf coast, and you saw all short term models completely whiff on storms even effecting Houston last night let alone 90mph winds, while still nailing the severe storms further west. Don't really know what you can even do. It's like nailing 90% of the nationwide forecast while whiffing bad on 10%, just that the area you whiff on is randomly generated each day

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The following of the models makes the hobby fun for some...if they were always right it would be less exciting IMO.  Most met's would not be needed either.   Every friend I can think of knows how to read the GFS and specifically the precip panels. 

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7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I probably post more WPC maps than anyone in here, but they have really struggled this week. Earlier in the week their 5 day map ending 7am Sunday had me between 3-5". With a day to go I'm sitting at .66" and there are quite a few with less than me.

Still just .6 here so on the same boat as you.  That is .6 over a 5-day period which means I lost ground to the drought as to ground water this week as I should have had .66...who would have thunk after all the gaudy forecats and earlier model love for big rains?   The news is better for grass as the lack of sun has limited top level surface drying despite the limited rain compared to what was forecasted. 

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10 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Marysville 2", Philadelphia 1.25", king of Prussia 2", Allentown 3", Poconos 4"+

State College 1.5", Clearfield 1", Williamsport 2"

Johnstown, Altoona, Pittsburgh 0.50"

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Lol, Thanks… my post was was just joking around.

It was in reference to the old weather board days when a Winter storm was approaching, some poster would always ask, “How much for Philly!”

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10 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Marysville 2", Philadelphia 1.25", king of Prussia 2", Allentown 3", Poconos 4"+

State College 1.5", Clearfield 1", Williamsport 2"

Johnstown, Altoona, Pittsburgh 0.50"

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Showing me only having 0.94” for the month.

Radar is clear and it’s raining here....go figure.

yesterday only picked up 0.03” Not sure what I got overnight  

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Today
A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 4am. Areas of fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Monday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. High near 85. Southeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. 
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:
Today
A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 4am. Areas of fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. 
Monday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. High near 85. Southeast wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. 
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. 
Tuesday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 80. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 

 

This is the CTP forecast near me…

Lots of chances this week.

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