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Central PA Summer 2023


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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Compare this to Canadian model. I'm not looking for an ark. Just 0.50". It seems we will have widespread convection everyday for the next 6 or 7. I'm sure some are bummed at that but that's how we can cut this drought deficit in half8435bd7b484f19960ab388a0a7994259.jpg

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I am under the brightest of yellows on that radar snippet and it is not raining at all. In fact, the sun has reemerged through the cloud cover. 

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4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Compare this to Canadian model. I'm not looking for an ark. Just 0.50". It seems we will have widespread convection everyday for the next 6 or 7. I'm sure some are bummed at that but that's how we can cut this drought deficit in half8435bd7b484f19960ab388a0a7994259.jpg

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Yea, the rgem was dead wrong in not showing rain in Southern PA.  I would not bet any money on the .5" today though either.  Lots of models show less and the nowcasting does not look great IMO.  The HRRR shows about 1/4" for most of the LSV @ 12Z tomorrow (from now to then.) 

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So with all the weird weather going on I wanted to remind everyone about that NASA study back in August about the effects Hunga Tonga's eruption would have. It added an extra 10% of the entirety of the earths water vapor into the stratosphere. And like with most volcanic eruptions there's always a lag period of 1-2 years before you start noticing effects. The NASA study stated that there would be warming of global temperatures for 10 years as the water vapor disappears and it would also alter the global climate pattern in various ways that we don't yet know. It's easy to say that El Nino is the current driving force with all the weird weather going on but I don't think it's kicked into full gear yet and can't explain everything. There's been some huge changes globally starting since last winter. It's just weird that nobody has been bringing this up at all. Remember when Pinatubo erupted in 1991 and 1993-1994 had some extreme weather like Storm of the Century and the coldest temps ever recorded in PA? Obviously that was volcanic ash and not water vapor like Tonga's so different effects occurred due to that. The thing that's interesting about Tunga is we've never had a volcano eject water vapor like that in our records so it's uncharted territory for the types of effects it can have globally.

Sorry for the rambling but it's interesting to take into consideration. I'm super big into tropical weather and I'm trying to wrap my head around the almost unprecedented african wave train occurring 2 months ahead of schedule. There's a low amount of Saharan dust and the African Monsoon is way more potent with the warmest Atlantic SST's ever seen.

Oh and another thing too with a potential record Super El Nino coming along with all that water vapor from Hunga Tonga also increasing global temps we're going to get a 1-2 punch HARD with how hot everything is going to get.

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Yea, the rgem was dead wrong in not showing rain in Southern PA.  I would not bet any money on the .5" today though either.  Lots of models show less and the nowcasting does not look great IMO.  The HRRR shows about 1/4" for most of the LSV @ 12Z tomorrow (from now to then.) 
If I can get above 0.60" by tomorrow 11:59pm I'll be happy

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So with all the weird weather going on I wanted to remind everyone about that NASA study back in August about the effects Hunga Tonga's eruption would have. It added an extra 10% of the entirety of the earths water vapor into the stratosphere. And like with most volcanic eruptions there's always a lag period of 1-2 years before you start noticing effects. The NASA study stated that there would be warming of global temperatures for 10 years as the water vapor disappears and it would also alter the global climate pattern in various ways that we don't yet know. It's easy to say that El Nino is the current driving force with all the weird weather going on but I don't think it's kicked into full gear yet and can't explain everything. There's been some huge changes globally starting since last winter. It's just weird that nobody has been bringing this up at all. Remember when Pinatubo erupted in 1991 and 1993-1994 had some extreme weather like Storm of the Century and the coldest temps ever recorded in PA? Obviously that was volcanic ash and not water vapor like Tonga's so different effects occurred due to that. The thing that's interesting about Tunga is we've never had a volcano eject water vapor like that in our records so it's uncharted territory for the types of effects it can have globally.
Sorry for the rambling but it's interesting to take into consideration. I'm super big into tropical weather and I'm trying to wrap my head around the almost unprecedented african wave train occurring 2 months ahead of schedule. There's a low amount of Saharan dust and the African Monsoon is way more potent with the warmest Atlantic SST's ever seen.
Oh and another thing too with a potential record Super El Nino coming along with all that water vapor from Hunga Tonga also increasing global temps we're going to get a 1-2 punch HARD with how hot everything is going to get.
I agree. Issue is we have never had an eruption like this at this magnitude in a long long time. It will be amazing for studies, but to think any models can come close to predicting the effect is ludicrous. I worry all this will get pushed under the envelope of global warming and kill the good science that can come from this event.

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You'll be seeing the fast work on Shapiro's future presidential campaign tour (along with his next gubernatorial campaign). 
President Shapiro builds bridges.

The other guy burns them.

Pay me now for the campaign slogan.

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