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Central PA Summer 2023


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1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Might depend on backdoor front currently located up by Erie into New York. We need to keep that dry air and suppression away

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From MU - the aforementioned front has come through already (at least Lanco) 

(1/2) A backdoor cold front moved through the Lower Susquehanna Valley overnight. Behind the front, moist, easterly flow off the Atlantic has caused skies to turn mostly cloudy. The easterly flow and cloudier conditions will persist over the next three days..

(2/2) As a result, high temps will struggle to exceed the upper 70s this afternoon and mid 70s tomorrow. Easterly wind gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon and 25-30 mph Wednesday will make it feel even cooler outside. Beneficial rain comes Wednesday night - Thursday.

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12Z HRRR starts the spread of rain into the LSV early evening tomorrow...in a sort of middle ground between Wed and Thur.   By 10-11 most of the LSV in a rain shield. 
"Rain shield" is such a beautiful word. I just realized I have a very good possibility of having 15 days of precipitation in June, yet still being below average, maybe significantly below for the month. That has to be rare feat in Pennsylvania in June.

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Just now, Jns2183 said:

"Rain shield" is such a beautiful word. I just realized I have a very good possibility of having 15 days of precipitation in June, yet still being below average, maybe significantly below for the month. That has to be rare feat in Pennsylvania in June.

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Too early to count on HRRR qpf maps but the totals are indeed quite light though mid-day Thursday. 

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A few breaks of sun today but overall we are entering a pretty cloudy and wet period that looks to continue right through the weekend. Rain looks to start by later tomorrow night. This has a good chance of putting a nice dent in our rain deficit so far this year....but it is not great news for those taking an early summer vacation.
Records for today: High 98 (1923) / Low 38 (1926) / Rain 1.36" (1913)
image.png.b94de47a583ddad165a5ef0577452e5e.png
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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

you ain't kidding. When my family has a party, nobody gives a time. People show up when they want and may or may not leave the same day. Sometimes a 4th of July party turns into the 3rd, 5th, 6th etc. The older I get, takes longer to recover

 

Yep.  Recovery time is a real thing.  It's amazing how as you get older even just being on your feet all day and doing basic tasks, especially when combined with alcohol intake ha, is enough to make you sore for a few days.  

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42 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep.  Recovery time is a real thing.  It's amazing how as you get older even just being on your feet all day and doing basic tasks, especially when combined with alcohol intake ha, is enough to make you sore for a few days.  

Just wait another 15-20 years and compare notes. :)  

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The Rgem through mid day Friday is still not exactly screaming flood.  The MA Screw zone would cause some howling.   GFS slowed down the precip a bit for tomorrow...later afternoon for entering the LSV. 
 
image.thumb.png.d851a306b47550f2187537391a801761.png
Oh look. More nothing out this way.

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51 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

State route 203, just mammoth mountain todayde442c2a9594a746f5505659d0500ff0.jpg

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That would be a fun job.  I was surprised to read today that Mt Washington received over 8” of snow this month ( not comparing the two regions but 8” seemed a lot for an east coast area)

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I just saw this on Twitter about El Nino and thought people would be interested: 

"Wow!

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has had both the most extreme and most accurate forecasts of the developing El Niño. But this forecast, just released, is so extreme it's hard to believe I'm seeing it.

3.0°C by October. 

3.2°C by November."

Chart at link 

https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1671213699875622914?s=20

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