Central PA Summer 2023

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, pawatch said:

33.65” for the year which has us ahead of normal, which is about 28”.

The total is kind of a little deceiving. A few storms we got dumped on 3-4” which kind isn’t a normal rainfall. 

Been mowing on the average about every 4 days.

56 for the low this morning.

Tale of 2 different states....North 2/3 vs. South 1/3.    Meet up in Gettysburg to hash this out?  

[Summit Snow]

22 minutes ago, pawatch said:

33.65” for the year which has us ahead of normal, which is about 28”.

The total is kind of a little deceiving. A few storms we got dumped on 3-4” which kind isn’t a normal rainfall. 

Been mowing on the average about every 4 days.

56 for the low this morning.

51 for the low. 54 currently. A few hot days next week and then summers over up here. Climo always wins. 70s and 40s in my future.

[Bubbler86]

6Z GFS starts a wetter pattern 6-7 days from now...not wet, just wetter.   Ends the Heat Wave on Thur next week. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 57 here and an absolutely splendid few days on tap.  I haven't mowed here in two weeks and have no imminent plans to do so.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I've mowed like 5 times. I also don't keep my yard looking like a billiards table but still, 27 mows? That's seven years for me.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Your growing season is 2 months.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS starts a wetter pattern 6-7 days from now...not wet, just wetter.   Ends the Heat Wave on Thur next week. 

To add on to the evolving situation, the highest 18Z temp next week on the Euro is now 91 at MDT.   Low 80's next Sat at 18Z. 

[Jns2183]

Your growing season is 2 months.

We are going to need some canals dug LA style for water from his area to ours soon.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

To add on to the evolving situation, the highest 18Z temp next week on the Euro is now 91 at MDT.   Low 80's next Sat at 18Z. 

Would make sense. We do September heat well in these parts, and with the low level drought conditions the ground can heat up quickly. The sun doesn't have to work off too much soil moisture.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would make sense. We do September heat well in these parts, and with the low level drought conditions the ground can heat up quickly. The sun doesn't have to work off too much soil moisture.

In this case it was a good step down for those that do not want heat.  Euro knocked 4-7 degrees off its highs from yesterday (on the hottest days.).  But yea it is super dry mostly Harrisburg and South.  I just posted yesterday that HGR is under 16" for the year which is ludicrous. 

[sauss06]

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Congratulations. You will likely win the 2023 Central PA Great Mowing Derby. I mowed for the 27th time one week ago today and will not again for at least another 10-14 days if then. Grass is dead.

i have been mowing twice a week for the last 4 weeks. It slowed down, i'll mow tomorrow  then see what happens. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In this case it was a good step down for those that do not want heat.  Euro knocked 4-7 degrees off its highs from yesterday (on the hottest days.).  But yea it is super dry mostly Harrisburg and South.  I just posted yesterday that HGR is under 16" for the year which is ludicrous. 

It's become pretty clear to me that whatever was done to the Euro over the past year or two has caused it to develop a wet, hot bias beyond HR84. That being said, it seems like 88-94 degree highs are a distinct possibility. The sun angle and length of day certainly is decreasing, but we still have enough juice to get hot this time of year. In fact, the Millersville University climate data shows some records highs in the first third of September are near 100 degrees. (https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/normals/September.html)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's become pretty clear to me that whatever was done to the Euro over the past year or two has caused it to develop a wet, hot bias beyond HR84. That being said, it seems like 88-94 degree highs are a distinct possibility. The sun angle and length of day certainly is decreasing, but we still have enough juice to get hot this time of year. In fact, the Millersville University climate data shows some records highs in the first third of September are near 100 degrees. (https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/normals/September.html)

Just adding some numbers here:  MDT has 13 days in September with a record max of at least 95; another four are 94; and, the first day where the record max falls below 90 is September 28.

[Itstrainingtime]

There were a lot of forecasts in late spring for a very hot July and August. In late June and early July the forecast shifted to a hot August. As August wore on the forecast shifted yet again, this time to a hot September. Now, there are kinks in that forecast already showing up.

It would be prudent to file this away in our minds if and when models start picking up on wintry weather in a few months. Don't count on anything until it's actually happening.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Just adding some numbers here:  MDT has 13 days in September with a record max of at least 95; another four are 94; and, the first day where the record max falls below 90 is September 28.

As of yesterday, MU was predicting that at least 2 records would fall next week. He even went on to predict the hottest temp at MU next week would be 97.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

How about this for one of the most impressive and sneaky heat events of all-time for our area.......1941 owns the daily max record for four consecutive days in October from the 4th through the 7th, with values of 88, 97, 93, and 97.  Wow.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

As of yesterday, MU was predicting that at least 2 records would fall next week. He even went on to predict the hottest temp at MU next week would be 97.

I agree with that sentiment, and definitely think the soft record of 93 on Labor Day falls.  Although, nothing is guaranteed.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How about this for one of the most impressive and sneaky heat events of all-time for our area.......1941 owns the daily max record for four consecutive days in October from the 4th through the 7th, with values of 88, 97, 93, and 97.  Wow.

16.9" of snowfall followed that winter. (More numbers for 'ya)

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i have been mowing twice a week for the last 4 weeks. It slowed down, i'll mow tomorrow  then see what happens. 

Exactly - 27 mows isn't that many once you hit the twice a week mark. I was doing that pretty regularly until the past couple of weeks.

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In this case it was a good step down for those that do not want heat.  Euro knocked 4-7 degrees off its highs from yesterday (on the hottest days.).  But yea it is super dry mostly Harrisburg and South.  I just posted yesterday that HGR is under 16" for the year which is ludicrous. 

I matched HGR's yearly total in a couple of days from TS Lee!

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's become pretty clear to me that whatever was done to the Euro over the past year or two has caused it to develop a wet, hot bias beyond HR84. That being said, it seems like 88-94 degree highs are a distinct possibility. The sun angle and length of day certainly is decreasing, but we still have enough juice to get hot this time of year. In fact, the Millersville University climate data shows some records highs in the first third of September are near 100 degrees. (https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/normals/September.html)

Yea, I am on board with it being hot next week but the Euro has indeed been extreme on both sides you mentioned too often this year.    Canderson and CXY probably see over 94 next week. 

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There were a lot of forecasts in late spring for a very hot July and August. In late June and early July the forecast shifted to a hot August. As August wore on the forecast shifted yet again, this time to a hot September. Now, there are kinks in that forecast already showing up.

It would be prudent to file this away in our minds if and when models start picking up on wintry weather in a few months. Don't count on anything until it's actually happening.

This is why I have been steadily watching the runs over the last few days....the GFS was always on an island with its extreme temps and the Euro was partially supporting but not so anymore.   And the assumption that the second full week of Sept would be hot was always something that was at best 50/50 to me....this does remind me of how we see extreme cold events in the winter and discuss effects a week or two out only to see them minor out as the event gets closer. 

[Bubbler86]

Windows open at 11AM on the last day of Met summer,  67 degrees. 

[TheClimateChanger]

The monthly minimum temperature for August at DuBois - Jefferson County Regional Airport was 51F, which ties 1980 for warmest minimum temperature. Records date to 1962.

Additionally, it was the 7th warmest monthly low temperature for any month. All six warmer minima occurred in July. Of note, this past July's minimum temperature of 53F was the second highest of record, behind 54F from 2020.

[TheClimateChanger]

At Bradford Regional Airport, the monthly minimum of 47F was just one shy of the warmest of record for the month of August behind 1980's low of 48F. Records date to 1957.

It was also the fourth warmest minimum for any month. Also of note, July 2023's minimum of 49F tied 2020 for the warmest of record.

[TheClimateChanger]

At Bradford, the temperature used to drop to at or below freezing about once every five or six years in the month of August.

It has not dropped below 40F since 2014.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

At Bradford Regional Airport, the monthly minimum of 47F was just one shy of the warmest of record for the month of August behind 1980's low of 48F. Records date to 1957.

It was also the fourth warmest minimum for any month. Also of note, July 2023's minimum of 49F tied 2020 for the warmest of record.

We had 2 posters in the LSV reach the 40's this month with one being the NWS's favorite weather person in Adams county (Cashtown).  I reached 50 two times here on the M/D line @ 800-900 feet.  

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We had 2 posters in the LSV reach the 40's this month with one being the NWS's favorite weather person in Adams county (Cashtown).  I reached 50 two times here on the M/D line @ 800-900 feet.  

I don't know what this matters. The only first-order stations to reach below 50F were Bradford (47F) and Mount Pocono (44F). The minimum was exactly 50 at Johnstown-Cambria County and Altoona. These stations have been in the same location for decades. Sheltered valley locations can get quite a bit colder than mountain locations.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/29/2023 at 9:53 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

For a little weather history, on this date in 1982, the region was in the throes of an impressive late August cold snap. The official low temperature was 39F at PIT. However, typically colder locations saw freezing conditions. Low temperatures included 26F at Bradford; 28F at Slippery Rock, 29F at Washington; 32F at New Castle; 32F at Youngstown, Ohio; and 34F at DuBois.

Bradford

Slippery Rock

Washington, PA

New Castle

Youngstown, Ohio

DuBois

 

 

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know what this matters. The only first-order stations to reach below 50F were Bradford (47F) and Mount Pocono (44F). The minimum was exactly 50 at Johnstown-Cambria County and Altoona. These stations have been in the same location for decades. Sheltered valley locations can get quite a bit colder than mountain locations.

As I noted here, it was at or below freezing throughout western Pennsylvania outside of the heat island areas in August 1982. It was even 38F in suburban Washington, D.C. at Dulles International Airport. What was the low temperature in Cashtown in August 1982? Are you saying the ASOS temperatures are incorrect or unreliable? And, if so, why would they just start being wrong in recent years?

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know what this matters. The only first-order stations to reach below 50F were Bradford (47F) and Mount Pocono (44F). The minimum was exactly 50 at Johnstown-Cambria County and Altoona. These stations have been in the same location for decades. Sheltered valley locations can get quite a bit colder than mountain locations.

It matters because it points toward just one piece of the puzzle in the overall big picture of warming for our area.    Saying Dubois never made it below 51 when areas of far southern PA did, begs to question what the Dubois number means.  Cashtown's Rig is probably up to or above the level of some first-order stations around the state and he is very much not a valley location as least in terms of LSV elevations.     With that said, his 40's reading was a specific event but with any mention of situations that are the "warmest ever" some weight has to be given to other areas within the state that did not face the same level of record. 2023 has been one of the driest summers ever in my area but most posters here did not face the same extreme situation so I cannot state that PA is drying out.   I am right there with you that our state/country is warmer now than it has ever been during modern times, but this summer is not a good example of it IMO as it is just low temps leading the way this year.    High temp wise, this was one of the cooler summers in recent summers so that has to be added to any convo. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

As I noted here, it was at or below freezing throughout western Pennsylvania outside of the heat island areas in August 1982. It was even 38F in suburban Washington, D.C. at Dulles International Airport. What was the low temperature in Cashtown in August 1982? Are you saying the ASOS temperatures are incorrect or unreliable? And, if so, why would they just start being wrong in recent years?

I am saying that not everyone had the extreme warmth of those two stations.