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Central PA Summer 2023


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51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's record heat month delayed but maybe not denied?

It probably should be noted that the CMC is nowhere near as hot as the GFS and the Euro is a tweener between the two.   They both show a Heat Wave per se but no suggested 100's.  18Z Mid 90's on the Euro for the hotest days where the GFS had upper 90's and 100's.  

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WGAL-Highest temp next week is 92. 
I think KMDT ends up with 8-11 90 degree plus days in September including 5-7 straight days of them. Current year consecutive 90 degree streak is 4 days. We hit 90 or above 11 days in July and 1 in August.

KCXY will bake worse

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

I think KMDT ends up with 8-11 90 degree plus days in September including 5-7 straight days of them. Current year consecutive 90 degree streak is 4 days. We hit 90 or above 11 days in July and 1 in August.

KCXY will bake worse

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Calhoun said next week is a snoozer...much ado about nothing.  He really stuck his neck out. 

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Idalia at 972mb and is Category 2. Rapid intensification is underway.

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If I'm in Tallahassee, FL I'm getting really nervous right now with model runs along with nhc track being on eastern extreme of them yet seemingly coming west each update

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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I mean 90-92 is nothing. I'm just going to laugh if kmdt gets 7 straight days of it, compared to our July heat waves

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GFS has much of the LSV over or near 100 5 days next week.   That would be pretty big news....still not buying it though as the GFS is also the model that had the LSV in the mid 110's several weeks ago. 

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So like is it supposed to rain tonight lol? There are flood watches north of the valley but radar looks like shit. The only batch of rain is weakening…
The trend all summer in the LSV is it to go to nothing as we get closer. Which sucks this time because we probably won't even sniff rain for 10-14 days after tonight. Some people have had barely a drop in the previous 14 days as well. This is going to rival Mays lack of rain.

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If I'm in Tallahassee, FL I'm getting really nervous right now with model runs along with nhc track being on eastern extreme of them yet seemingly coming west each update

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I do think a slight wobble to the right will happen, but it's looking like Alligator Point will get the slamming of a lifetime. Tallahassee can go, for all I care. This is what they get for exploring leaving the ACC.

And for being fucking backwards.

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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The trend all summer in the LSV is it to go to nothing as we get closer. Which sucks this time because we probably won't even sniff rain for 10-14 days after tonight. Some people have had barely a drop in the previous 14 days as well. This is going to rival Mays lack of rain.

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Our luck…this pattern will continue right through winter! Lol

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Looking at radar, I’ll be shocked if we see a drop of rain tonight.  I did have a trace this morning! That is 2 traces in two and half weeks!!! 
How much rain have you had last 2 weeks?

Doubt we get anything next 10 days at least

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It has been raining with thunder and lightening in Williamsport for a few hours now. Lights flickered briefly and TV switched off but cable box  stayed on. The Weather Channel was constantly sounding off over flood warning & some other things too for about two hours but now I turned to another channel and i am relaxing again without any toots. Yes it is annoying to have local weather interfere with my plans to watch hurricane coverage. 

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Low of 71 and zero rain overnight. Now, there were a couple tiny showers that popped over me as I was leaving for work this morning but no more than a couple hundredths. Not totally shocked based on what some of the models were showing yesterday but given what my NWS forecast said, and the bleak look over the next couple of weeks, this was extremely disappointing. 

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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

0.36" of rain last two weeks August 16th to present.

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~.25 here since the 14th.    The front that failed us last night is a double whammy in not allowing the tropical moisture up here.  We may get to 15" below normal here if something does not change soon.   12-13" right now.   

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Just now, canderson said:

.01” overnight.  .02” last two weeks. It’s damn dry. 

I frankly have never seen the globals this dry 10-14 days out.  Idalia and the heat dome are sticking it to us on progs.   Usually there is one with a chance but there appears to be absolutely no qpf on the Euro, CMC, ICON and GFS.  

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