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Central PA Summer 2023


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18 minutes ago, canderson said:

That’s ambitious. There is no instability so I don’t see strong winds (over 40) mixing down. 

Im not seeing anything really that shows particularly heavy wind other than some cells that look to come through in the overnight hours but maybe this is what they're basing the rain on

image.thumb.png.fd574257bb1ca73e820e242022508c06.png

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Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

CTP sounds confident for the Harrisburg area tonight.

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27 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Im not seeing anything really that shows particularly heavy wind other than some cells that look to come through in the overnight hours but maybe this is what they're basing the rain on

image.thumb.png.fd574257bb1ca73e820e242022508c06.png

I am sure the wind comments were based on weather during storms.   They actually had damaging winds listed as a moderate possibility which is high for them. 

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They actually mention tornados. 

 

___________________

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday evening as a storm system moves over southern Pennsylvania. First a warm front lifts from south to north allowing for incredibly high levels of moisture to pool ahead of developing showers and thunderstorms to our southwest as we head past sunset.

As the front lifts to our north these scattered showers and thunderstorms may increase in strength and number closer to sunset and into the early overnight hours. The biggest concerns are storms that produce strong damaging wind gusts greater than 60 miles per hour. There may storms that produce very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Because of the advancing warm front and western motion of the thunderstorms that could create enough "spin" in the atmosphere to get these storms to rotate and a brief, spin-up tornado could form.

 

https://www.wgal.com/article/impact-scattered-strong-to-severe-storms-possible-overnight/44812277#

 

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

They actually mention tornados. 

 

___________________

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday evening as a storm system moves over southern Pennsylvania. First a warm front lifts from south to north allowing for incredibly high levels of moisture to pool ahead of developing showers and thunderstorms to our southwest as we head past sunset.

As the front lifts to our north these scattered showers and thunderstorms may increase in strength and number closer to sunset and into the early overnight hours. The biggest concerns are storms that produce strong damaging wind gusts greater than 60 miles per hour. There may storms that produce very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Because of the advancing warm front and western motion of the thunderstorms that could create enough "spin" in the atmosphere to get these storms to rotate and a brief, spin-up tornado could form.

 

https://www.wgal.com/article/impact-scattered-strong-to-severe-storms-possible-overnight/44812277#

 

Did S&S or whatever those fools were called take over? 

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Funny to read this while watching end of Twister, the ultimate weather geek movie. Either someone has had a bad day or an anti-weather geek managed to get hired at NWS: 

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As the rain moves away, there won`t be much of a break before showers move back through as the tail end of the storms systemd Drags a short wave across the lower lakes on Tuesday. All of this nonsense moves out for Wednesday with a nice day in store.

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looks like Lanco did not do a lot last night but the HRRR and 3K both have a wave ride the front this afternoon to put them in the game. 

That might be the biggest understatement of the year.

In the past 5 days, 2 separate systems were forecast to drop 1.5 - 2.5" of rain between them.

My grand total from both was .04"

I got nada last night.

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28 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Grand total of .02” here. Yawn. 

some mesos showed my area getting split in the qpf distribution yesterday, and that was a correct map.  akron got a couple drops yesterday evening, and NWS showing no rain overnight (although the ground was moist when leaving for office).  looks like many did well though.

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35 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Grand total of .02” here. Yawn. 

 

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That might be the biggest understatement of the year.

In the past 5 days, 2 separate systems were forecast to drop 1.5 - 2.5" of rain between them.

My grand total from both was .04"

I got nada last night.

I should clarify my post:

I did receive .02" early yesterday evening. That was in addition to the .02" that I got from the last big rain event late last week. I did not receive anything overnight last night. 

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I should clarify my post:

I did receive .02" early yesterday evening. That was in addition to the .02" that I got from the last big rain event late last week. I did not receive anything overnight last night. 

Oh, so you got .04".  I hope USGS took note of that!  LOL.   Parts of PA now have less the entire year than some posters here have had in ~ 2 or 2.5 months. 

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On 8/13/2023 at 7:11 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

I'd love to know where these top coldest summers are here in Cumberland because I want to sleep with my windows open at night in the summer which I used to be able to do as a kid but can't anymore because it's just way too hot lmao

You need to come on over to the soaring "peaks" of the Welsh Mountain anticline here in NW Chester County to enjoy those chilling nights of yesteryear!!!

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