Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Surprised that the sun is out here at work. MDT is touting a fresh, hot .01 for the AM so far. LOL. Definitely delayed compared to yesterday's progs. Just started dripping here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT is touting a fresh, hot .01 for the AM so far. LOL. Definitely delayed compared to yesterday's progs. Just started dripping here. CTP's forecast for here from yesterday indicated rain would fall mainly after 11am, and that looks spot on now. That was my forecast and not what models were showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: CTP's forecast for here from yesterday indicated rain would fall mainly after 11am, and that looks spot on now. That was my forecast and not what models were showing. Let's just hope we get it! 1/4" would be fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Let's just hope we get it! 1/4" would be fine with me. MU Weather Center @MUweather Showers & some steadier rain will continue to overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley through 10 AM. The morning & evening commutes aren’t looking too bad, though! Most of the rain should occur between 10 AM - 3 PM before tapering off. Many areas will receive around half an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 19 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Been a long time since I went to Taco Bell...mainly because the next day was Taco hell... Just don't use a job johnnie after eating Taco Bell. The results can be catastrophic... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU Weather Center @MUweather Showers & some steadier rain will continue to overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley through 10 AM. The morning & evening commutes aren’t looking too bad, though! Most of the rain should occur between 10 AM - 3 PM before tapering off. Many areas will receive around half an inch. That stretch of precip from Handyman back to Confluence would give us the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That stretch of precip from Handyman back to Confluence would give us the goods. Looks like things are a little more pleasant up on the Mount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 As for this coming Monday, perhaps the timing of the front will help mitigate the severe threat somewhat: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging is forecast to remain in place over the southern Plains and Southeast States through the weekend and into the middle of next week. A belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow is expected north of this upper ridging from the northern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A shortwave trough is forecast to drop southeastward into the northern/central Plains on D4/Sunday before continuing eastward across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, spreading into the central Plains on D4/Sunday and across much of the OH Valley on D5/Monday. This strong mid-level flow is still expected to support severe thunderstorms as the shortwave trough and associated surface low and cold front interact with moist and unstable airmass across the Mid MO and Mid MS Valleys on D4/Sunday. Mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen on D5/Monday as the shortwave matures and develops a closed circulation. The severe thunderstorm risk will persist eastward into the OH Valley on D5/Monday amid this strengthen upper flow. Best overlap between this strong flow and airmass destabilization is current expected to occur from southern OH into KY and WV. Depending on the overall evolution of this shortwave, and its attendant surface low and cold front, some severe risk may continue into D6/Tuesday as the strong mid-level flow associated with the shortwave expands into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, current expectation is for the front to be offshore early D6/Tuesday morning. The belt of enhanced, broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier of the CONUS will likely persist into D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday. There is at least some potential for another shortwave trough to progress through the northern Plains and into the Mid/Upper MS Valley but inconsistency within the guidance leads to low forecast confidence. ..Mosier.. 08/10/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 The room smells of a snowstorm falling apart but still hoping not. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 10, 2023 Author Share Posted August 10, 2023 Sun's trying to break out. Going to guess I get less than .05" today, if I get anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 We are up to .03 now :-). Moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 10, 2023 Author Share Posted August 10, 2023 Hey it's raining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Hey it's raining Looks you are getting close to rain + for a short bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Several cells coming up into southern Lanco from MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Radar is very uninspiring...after feeling pretty good at getting at least a half inch (of rain, guys...chill) last evening, I'm now hoping against hope for a tenth of an inch. Of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Several cells coming up into southern Lanco from MD. Watching that area, going to miss me to my east I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Watching that area, going to miss me to my east I fear. Yea, unless it expands unbeknownst to us right now. I should have said Southern York and Lanco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 10, 2023 Author Share Posted August 10, 2023 Well that was terrible. .02”. No rain under any tree or bush or plant or hair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Stopped here...at about .1" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Stopped here...at about .1" for the day. .09 here. The carpet and tile guys might be on the something. NWS took a big hit on their forecast, unless something happens later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: .09 here. The carpet and tile guys might be on the something. NWS took a big hit on their forecast, unless something happens later. That NWS forecast was based on yesterday's models which were very wrong unfortunately. Even this AM they were still showing a decent hit (meso's.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 GFS keeps wanting to fry us 8 days out. This was the day that it initially progged in the 110's. Highs in the low 80's the day before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Only 0.14” in bucket so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 22 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Only 0.14” in bucket so far. . Consider yourself fortunate - 0.03" at home and it looks like that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Well... If it was January, it would be like a 5-10" snowstorm forecast 12 hours out that ended up being a dusting to an inch or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well... If it was January, it would be like a 5-10" snowstorm forecast 12 hours out that ended up being a dusting to an inch or so. Yea, I was thinking of that as well. Meso's drop the ball again. Hate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Up to .13 #reportingscraps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 10, 2023 Author Share Posted August 10, 2023 It barely rained (it is dry out now basically) but hey it’s 74 so that’s not bad! Saturday looks toasty. Next rain chance looks Monday evening into Tuesday. I don’t see much severe storm potential with timing and what looks like minimal shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Just a hundredth or two here. Everything split around me all day, not that it would have amounted to much if it hadn't. Wildly disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Sorry if someone else already talked about this. I just saw this at Twitter and knew many year will be thrilled to hear about this upgrade. "The Department of Commerce and NOAA expanded the capacity of the nation’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) by 20% this week. The increased computing power and storage will help improve forecast model guidance for years to come and allow for other weather prediction advances. “Our investment in high-performance computing will pay off with better U.S. weather modeling,” said Michael C. Morgan, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. “Forecast model upgrades made possible by this increased computing capacity will bring improved and timely forecasts and warnings that better protect life and property.” https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-completes-upgrade-to-weather-and-climate-supercomputer-system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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