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Central PA Summer 2023


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48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like we go through another strong storm with trailing frontal passage scenario around the Monday timeframe, and that could bring yet another bout of severe weather...

Yeah I’ve been keeping a keen eye on that time frame. Hey @Bubbler86, some storms about to hit you or are they gonna slide by to the north? 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah I’ve been keeping a keen eye on that time frame. Hey @Bubbler86, some storms about to hit you or are they gonna slide by to the north? 

The closest cell actually went south of us in a surprise move.   All good, hope it to be pouring by the time I get up tomorrow. 

 

Edit, the storm reached back and watered us to the tune of .02. 

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27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The closest cell actually went south of us in a surprise move.   All good, hope it to be pouring by the time I get up tomorrow. 

 

Edit, the storm reached back and watered us to the tune of .02. 

Mini bonus appetizer before tomorrow.

CTP has upped expected amounts it looks like...calling for a general .5" - 1". Hopefully we can keep an every few/several days of rain pace. 

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CTP confirms high-end EF1 in York Co....

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
223 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...NWS Damage Survey for 08/07/2023 Tornado Event...

.Fulton School Rd Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    107 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.43 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   50 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             08/07/2023
Start Time:             05:26 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 SE Felton / York County / PA
Start Lat/Lon:          39.8328 / -76.5459

End Date:               08/07/2023
End Time:               05:28 PM EDT
End Location:           2 SE Felton / York County / PA
End Lat/Lon:            39.8383 / -76.5423

Survey Summary:
A brief narrow tornado touched down in York County PA, within
East Hopewell Township. The tornado began on the edge of a corn
field north of Century Farms Road and caused damage to two fields
before it snapped and uprooted a couple dozen trees. The tornado
lifted just north of Fulton School Road.
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Just saw 11:00 Channel 16 weather. Guy said newest models showing far less rain. His newest rain map showed almost nothing for South East and South Central PA. We in Williamsport got about the highest with .37.  He pointed out that prior future radar was lit up like a Christmas tree with lots of colors. No more. Now just greens, some very pale. 

Sorry. Who knows though, maybe things will change overnight.

 

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Carpet and tile guys: Today’s rainfall has not been handled particularly well by model guidance. The timing has been all over the place as well as the amount. It appears as of this morning that much of today’s rainfall will come during the first half of today. Expect a dreary and damp start to this Thursday with rain and embedded thunder moving to the north of an area of low pressure. The warm front stays to our south, so while it will be humid, it won’t be that warm today. Highs will be in the mid-70s. Rainfall amounts are tricky to forecast but right around 0.25″ seems fair for most. The rain should exit our eastern counties by mid-afternoon and late-day clearing is expected. Tonight will be mostly clear and comfy with lows in the mid-60s.

NWS:Rain and thunderstorms before 3pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. A big discrepancy... still.

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