Central PA Summer 2023

[Bubbler86]

Busy but 18Z models are on and off rain Sun-Tue.  Sun starting later. 

[Bubbler86]

US Women's Soccer:  Tough way to lose....miss 3 out of 4 penalty kicks.   Instant replay shocker. 

[pawatch]

The storm that come thru Friday done quite a bit of damage to some houses, “trees into houses”  And dumped an inch of rain.

Showing a good bit of rain. Let’s see if it materializes.

 

[Bubbler86]

GFS starts rain in the central MSV and LSV/west of Harrisburg or Williamsport between 4-6.  Meso's between 7-9.   

[mahantango#1]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS starts rain in the central MSV and LSV/west of Harrisburg or Williamsport between 4-6.  Meso's between 7-9.   

NWS says some 3+ amounts are  possible 

SPC currently places the southwest half of PA in a MRGL risk of
severe weather this evening. However, the bigger threat may be
locally excessive rain across southeast PA. An anomalous
southerly low level jet linked to a mid level shortwave lifting
across the Eastern Grt Lks is progged to advect pwats of around
2 inches into southern PA this evening, overrunning the
advancing warm front and setting the stage for thunderstorms
with torrential downpours and the potential of locally heavy
rainfall. Large scale forcing ahead of the mid level shortwave,
combined with anomalous pwats, supports widespread POPs in the
80-100pct range this evening. However, the threat of locally
excessive rainfall appears focused over the southeast counties,
where the 00Z HREF suggests localized amounts of 3+ inches are
possible between 00Z-08Z.

[Bubbler86]

41 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

NWS says some 3+ amounts are  possible 

SPC currently places the southwest half of PA in a MRGL risk of
severe weather this evening. However, the bigger threat may be
locally excessive rain across southeast PA. An anomalous
southerly low level jet linked to a mid level shortwave lifting
across the Eastern Grt Lks is progged to advect pwats of around
2 inches into southern PA this evening, overrunning the
advancing warm front and setting the stage for thunderstorms
with torrential downpours and the potential of locally heavy
rainfall. Large scale forcing ahead of the mid level shortwave,
combined with anomalous pwats, supports widespread POPs in the
80-100pct range this evening. However, the threat of locally
excessive rainfall appears focused over the southeast counties,
where the 00Z HREF suggests localized amounts of 3+ inches are
possible between 00Z-08Z.

Would not surprise me to see FFW's tomorrow as well if the models are right.  

[canderson]

Day 2 SPC map has all off is us slight and the southwest area in enhanced 

[canderson]

Shear and CAPE #s tomorrow are very good. Might not even need prolonged afternoon sun to fire supercells. 
 

[ChescoWx]

A seasonably warm day on tap today to close out the weekend before wet weather moves in tonight through much of Tuesday. Some spots could see up to an inch or 2 of rain. Wednesday looks like the best day of the week before more unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the upcoming work week.

Records for today: High 104 (1918) / Low 46 (1957) /Rain 2.17" (1938)

[ChescoWx]

33 minutes ago, canderson said:

Shear and CAPE #s tomorrow are very good. Might not even need prolonged afternoon sun to fire supercells. 
 

Let's hope not!!

[Bubbler86]

Today may break it but MDT has not had a normal or AN day in Aug as of yet.  Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day of BN temps at MDT (going back to July) and they stand at -2.6 for the month so far.     MDT has now had one 8-day and two 7-day BN stretch's during Met summer.  Who would have thought it. 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Sneaky run towards 90 today - 86 here at 12:15.

[LVblizzard]

First PA chase of the year for me tomorrow. I’m thinking York is a good starting point.

[ChescoWx]

So how cool has the summer months of June and July been across Chester County PA? At East Nantmeal this is the 16th chilliest summer so far out of 130 years of data. At Glenmoore it is the 33rd coolest summer to date with 67 years of records and finally at KMQS Coatesville Airport it is the 3rd chilliest to date with only 16 years of records back to 2008. As you can see in the graph below the average temperature trend is clearly for cooler summers than in our past here in Chester County.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

First PA chase of the year for me tomorrow. I’m thinking York is a good starting point.

I’d go toward Hagerstown but yea York isn’t a bad spot to base. 

[Newman]

Some big time storms tomorrow. SPC expanded the 5% tor risk north and put up a 45%(!) wind probs risk over DC and far southern LSV. I think somewhere just south of the PA border would be ideal. The big question is if morning cloud cover inhibits afternoon sunshine. NWS and SPC discussion highlighting the likelihood of a bow echo and MCV forming hence the wind threat

[Bubbler86]

88 here.  Pretty warm in the sun.  Norms are now down to 86 so an AN day finally. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Some big time storms tomorrow. SPC expanded the 5% tor risk north and put up a 45%(!) wind probs risk over DC and far southern LSV. I think somewhere just south of the PA border would be ideal. The big question is if morning cloud cover inhibits afternoon sunshine. NWS and SPC discussion highlighting the likelihood of a bow echo and MCV forming hence the wind threat

Atmosphere will be so primed Sun won’t even mater really. A major MCS will set up - just a question of how far north. 

[Bubbler86]

Rain entering the Western LSV.

[Bubbler86]

Just a T here.  

[Bubbler86]

The line is falling apart fast. 

[canderson]

SPC all in on severe wind threat tomorrow. 45% (for 65+ knot winds( in southern tier, 30% for most everyone else. 
 

Have to iirc go back to June 2013 for the last time we saw these high chances of catastrophic winds. 

[canderson]

Just remembered we have no radar so tomorrow afternoon is going to be rough to know just how severe our storms will be.  

[Bubbler86]

A good bit of the LSV getting hammer jacked. 

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A good bit of the LSV getting hammer jacked. 

Just had a brief (less than 5 minute) downpour. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

A good bit of the LSV getting hammer jacked. 

It’s just now raining. Very very light - probably will get less than .05”. 

Let’s hope tomorrow is an equally big bust. 

[canderson]

CTP for Monday finally barks. Buckle up. 

“Model soundings indicate early low clouds should give way to brightening skies Monday, as the region breaks into the warm sector ahead of low pressure tracking across the lower Grt Lks. Heating of the moist/unstable airmass, combined with strong shear ahead of an upstream trough, will set the stage for severe weather during the PM hours.

The strongest mid level flow and best chance of severe weather appears focused over the southern tier counties. However, deep layer shear of 40kts+, combined with MLCAPE in the 1000-20000 J/kg range, will support a risk of all severe hazards over a good portion of Central PA. The latest SPC Outlook paints an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across Central Pennsylvania and a Slight Risk for the rest of the area.

Severe wind probabilities are some of the highest we get this time of year in the Lower Susquehanna Valley down into the Chesapeake Bay region. Tornadoes will also be possible with favorable 0-1km SRH values of 150 m2/s2 and STP of 1+. A mix of semi- discrete storms and some clusters will develop in the afternoon and then could congeal into a bowing MCS into the evening, especially across the south.

Flash flooding will maximize late Monday afternoon and evening as storm motions slow down and training becomes more likely. An active afternoon and evening appears increasingly likely across the mid- Atlantic with damaging winds”

[pawatch]

74 degrees at 6:00am picked up 0.60” overnight. But at the airport they picked up 1.2” of rain.

Doesn’t sound like a great day coming up.

[Bubbler86]

8 hours ago, canderson said:

It’s just now raining. Very very light - probably will get less than .05”. 

Let’s hope tomorrow is an equally big bust. 

Had two spotters get around 1/2" (between York and Harrisburg and in E-Town) and several 1/4" type reports.  Quick but heavy.   A sultry 67 here this AM. 

[Coop_Mason]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Had two spotters get around 1/2" (between York and Harrisburg and in E-Town) and several 1/4" type reports.  Quick but heavy.   A sultry 67 here this AM. 

Dover course had .43.  I had .20 last night.