canderson Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 CTP not even mentioning the threat of severe weather in its discussion for Monday is crazy imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP not even mentioning the threat of severe weather in its discussion for Monday is crazy imo It's the element of surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: It's the element of surprise Jan 2000......2023 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: It's the element of surprise If a tornado happens where you have no radar coverage, is it even a tornado? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Please tell me that it’s raining in Rouzerville? The radar looks good… maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lordy. Lordy is is actually raining. After 5 weeks it is finally raining. Sorry, rookie move by me… I didn’t go back 1 page to see this post! Congrats!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Sorry, rookie move by me… I didn’t go back 1 page to see this post! Congrats!!!! LOL, we are nearing 1" which doubles the last 4-5 weeks. Such a relief. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, we are nearing 1" which doubles the last 4-5 weeks. Such a relief. Congratulations!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Congratulations!!! Thanks, after 1-2 hours a day of watering the last 3 or so weeks, I am happy to get a break. My water bill was ridiculous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 The 3K is living large tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 MU talkin' Tornadoes for Monday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU talkin' Tornadoes for Monday. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No thanks. Got that right. I don't even like severe weather threat days. Makes me very uneasy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU talkin' Tornadoes for Monday. Glad someone is. A major threat - extremely rare for august. I still think extensive extreme wind is the biggest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Glad someone is. A major threat - extremely rare for august. I still think extensive extreme wind is the biggest threat. Issues are timing of the front and any debris from Sunday's threat. Hopefully at least one prohibits severe storm development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Issues are timing of the front and any debris from Sunday's threat. Hopefully at least one prohibits severe storm development. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Sterling has a great write up for Monday. CTP has nada. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday continues to be shaping up to be a potential impactful weather day with increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms in our forecast area. A strong mid-level trough will eject from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley by Monday. The trough is expected to strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted during the day on Monday. In response, surface low pressure will develop over Southern Michigan and track into Southern Ontario during the day. Models differ on the idea of a prefrontal shortwave ahead of the trough, which may lead to early convection on Monday out ahead of the main trough. This has led to uncertainty regarding the amount of destabilization. Out ahead of the system, the air mass is expected to become very moist as a result of strengthening southerly winds. Most of the guidance shows precipitable water values near or exceeding 2” east of the Blue Ridge with values over 1.75 west of the Blue Ridge. This increasing moisture advection may lead to low-level clouds and precipitation which may also hinder destabilization during the day, resulting in further uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty, with the trough becoming negatively tilted, mid-level flow is expected to increase across the area with most guidance showing bulk shear values from 30-40 knots. East of the Blue Ridge, there is a stronger signal for increased low-level flow, with soundings showing 0-3 km shear on the order of 20-30 knots which bears watching for potential low-level rotation within some storms. Given the strong forcing and the 30-40 Knots of bulk shear, any sunshine in the afternoon may provide ample instability on the order of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to fuel severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes possible. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches and uncertainty decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 4:45AMer's. 61 and sitting on .8" of gold. It shut down quickly after I said approaching 1" so not really approached. That gives us 1.3" in the last 5 weeks and about 4 1/2" over the last 65 days. Summer deficit at around 4 1/2" and year to date around 11". Statewide YTD mean areal smoothed over a bit by rain in N Franklin but still a substantial number over 7. LSV still in a decent hole. If this ULL can come close enough to us Sun-Tue it may cut into this greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 9 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: It's the element of surprise NWS should get their Sunday pants on. Sunday afternoon softball is on alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: NWS should get their Sunday pants on. Sunday afternoon softball is on alert. Pops up to 40% for Sunday. Good call. Fairfield course ended up with 1.43”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Just now, Coop_Mason said: Pops up to 40% for Sunday. Good call. Fairfield course ended up with 1.43”. FORE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: NWS should get their Sunday pants on. Sunday afternoon softball is on alert. My NWS forecast has not budged for Sunday. They're pretty steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 4:45AMer's. 61 and sitting on .8" of gold. It shut down quickly after I said approaching 1" so not really approached. That gives us 1.3" in the last 5 weeks and about 4 1/2" over the last 70 days. Summer deficit at around 4 1/2" and year to date around 11". Statewide YTD mean areal smoothed over a bit by rain in N Franklin but still a substantial number over 7. LSV still in a decent hole. If this ULL can come close enough to us Sun-Tue it may cut into this greatly. Where I'm at I'm in pretty good shape. But the creek is starting to get low again (but not as low as its been) but thats typical for the summer season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Where I'm at I'm in pretty good shape. But the creek is starting to get low again (but not as low as its been) but thats typical for the summer season Most models suggest a FFW will be needed somewhere in the next two days. Rgem shows 1-2" before dark tomorrow along the M/D line....GFS kicks the Pillow/Tamaqua split in the splits to come up with this by later Monday. GFS shows 1/2-1" over you before dark tomorrow but that is a convection bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 How chilly has it been? Well 19 of the last 22 days have featured below average temperatures here in Western Chester County. This weekend we should see temps averaging close to normal. Shower chances increase Sunday night through early Tuesday but most days except Monday this week should feature plenty of sunshine. Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 45 (1951) / Rain 1.41" (1987) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Nice summer day today. Going to enjoy working outside before rain hopefully comes tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 SPC has all of us under a SLGT for Monday; however, in their morning text they acknowledged that an upgrade to a more severe category may be warranted over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 And...skiing at Mammoth Mountain for the historic 2023 season concludes tomorrow. Opening day for the new season will be in just 95 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 I’m DC and it’s rocking a 73% humidity so even at 85 my sweat is sweating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 I don't know if it means anything, but this morning and still continuing this afternoon. There are a lot of ants moving their eggs out of a flowerbed that sits in a lower location to a new location that is about 5ft. Higher about 70ft. away from the original location. So I Googled this. It says they could be moving to avoid heavy rain. I never noticed this before. So I checked my NWS forecast. It says by Tuesday eve I could see 3in. Of rain by then. So maybe the ants are expecting more than that. I guess we'll see what happens till then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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