Anduril Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Anyone else notice SPC has most of PA under a Day 5 outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Early nooners...another BN day appears possible with it only being at 77 under very hazy and smokey skies. MDT sitting at 80. The HRRR gets the convection cell lottery started between 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 It’s awfully dark out. And 82 at 1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Oh, right, our radar is down. Could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Some small cells forming on the western edge of the LSV. The lottery is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 Update: It is no longer dark. The sun is shining - well as shining as it can get in this heavy smoke haze we got going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Partly sunny/mostly cloudy and 80 degrees. Pretty good SW breeze flowing through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Partly sunny/mostly cloudy and 60 degrees. Pretty good SW breeze flowing through today. only 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: only 60? Whoa! Thanks Jon - hit the 6 instead of the 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Whoa! Thanks Jon - hit the 6 instead of the 8. you had me wondering for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: you had me wondering for sure. Good thing MJS did not catch that first! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, sauss06 said: you had me wondering for sure. That's what I get for typing while looking at my damn thermostat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 The great valley took out our storms again....heads up Harrisburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 MU Weather Center #July2023 turned out to be seasonably wet, hot & humid at @millersvilleu. Temps, in aggregate, averaged 3.27F above normal, making it the 9th-warmest July on record (since 1914). Precip ended up “near normal,” but many parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley had a rainfall surplus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The great valley took out our storms again....heads up Harrisburg? Storms that are occurring are pretty small and not moving very much. Heads up...where's it raining currently? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Storms that are occurring are pretty small and not moving very much. Heads up...where's it raining currently? LOL They are showing the same pattern as all summer, but of course past results are not a guarantee of future results, in blowing up as they approach the central LSV. That one just west of Carlise is a potential to be warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU Weather Center #July2023 turned out to be seasonably wet, hot & humid at @millersvilleu. Temps, in aggregate, averaged 3.27F above normal, making it the 9th-warmest July on record (since 1914). Precip ended up “near normal,” but many parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley had a rainfall surplus. Not sure what his aggregate number is but the mean temp at MDT was 78.5 making it number 15 and 3.7 degrees behind number one 2020. Maybe someone can explain what the aggregate means....several stations taken together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not sure what his aggregate number is but the mean temp at MDT was 78.5 making it number 15 and 3.7 degrees behind number one 2020. Maybe someone can explain what the aggregate means....several stations taken together? Yeah, I haven't a clue - I was just a messenger of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah, I haven't a clue - I was just a messenger of information. No doubt, that over 3 number caught my attention and thought I would ask since MDT finished 1.2 AN. I assumed he meant MU's number but cannot believe they are 2 degrees higher than MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No doubt, that over 3 number caught my attention and thought I would ask since MDT finished 1.2 AN. I assumed he meant MU's number but cannot believe they are 2 degrees higher than MDT. Here's the monthly temp records data: I forgot just how incredibly warm this past January was! https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/t-anomaly.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Here's the monthly temp records data: I forgot just how incredibly warm this past January was! https://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/t-anomaly.htm You need to hit up MU and ask what aggregate means in this context. LOL. Over 1" in Newville being reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You need to hit up MU and ask what aggregate means in this context. LOL. Over 1" in Newville being reported. I don't want to start aggravating over aggregates. LOL It's a PA 233 special! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 It’s damn windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: No doubt, that over 3 number caught my attention and thought I would ask since MDT finished 1.2 AN. I assumed he meant MU's number but cannot believe they are 2 degrees higher than MDT. MU compares against the entire period of record, whereas MDT’s departure is derived from comparing against only the most recent 30 year climate normal period; hence, MU’s departures almost always come in significantly higher than MDT’s. In other news, we were out on the boat today and while we didn’t really notice the smoke, the winds sure made for some choppy water. Still a great day, because any day on the water is a great day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: MU compares against the entire period of record, whereas MDT’s departure is derived from comparing against only the most recent 30 year climate normal period; hence, MU’s departures almost always come in significantly higher than MDT’s. In other news, we were out on the boat today and while we didn’t really notice the smoke, the winds sure made for some choppy water. Still a great day, because any day on the water is a great day. You had said that before but to have a 2 point difference is not something I can accept as being proper mathematical statistical analysis for compare purposes. So, going away from the 30 vs. 100 plus year averages, the true numbers show July 2023 was warm and top 15 but not top 10 at mdt. I feel like it was a breeze compared to recent summer's. Glad you had a good day on the water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: MU compares against the entire period of record, whereas MDT’s departure is derived from comparing against only the most recent 30 year climate normal period; hence, MU’s departures almost always come in significantly higher than MDT’s. In other news, we were out on the boat today and while we didn’t really notice the smoke, the winds sure made for some choppy water. Still a great day, because any day on the water is a great day. Thanks for the reminder, you did mention this before. Sorry that I did not recall it. It was quite windy today...it might even be windier now than it was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 Since I've called Lancaster home since 1965, a couple of things stick out from the data that I posted: The winters of 1977-78 and 1993-94 are the 2 winters that I remember most as being bitterly cold. January 1977 featured a ridiculous negative departure of nearly 12 degrees, but the following winter was wall to wall cold. January and March were both more than 4 degrees below normal while February was over 9 degrees below normal. I remember watching the Baltimore news stations back then and people were driving on the Chesapeake. Hard to imagine that today. And then the January through March stretch of 1994 - I know many in this thread remember that...my neighborhood roads were 2 very deep ruts of tire tracks surrounded by a huge glacier of ice on either side, and it just did not melt. I have marked down that I had snow cover for 73 days that winter...think about that. The winter of 77-78 featured a huge February blizzard with little snow otherwise...just day after day of bitter, dry air. The 1994 winter was filled with tons of snow and ice events. On the flip side, 2010 was unrelenting heat. In fact, temps were WAY above normal every month from March all the way through September followed by a more modestly above normal October. That summer seemed like it would never end and in fact it did not end soon enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 Major wind event threat materializing for Monday I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: Major wind event threat materializing for Monday I think. As @Anduril posted earlier, pretty "impressive" that SPC has a 15% for day #5. They think something's up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: As @Anduril posted earlier, pretty "impressive" that SPC has a 15% for day #5. They think something's up... It’ll be a timing issue for actual storms but wind seems like the biggest threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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