cheese007 Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 ENH risk for parts of the Ark/La/Tex mainly a hail/wind risk but a 5% tor was just added for parts of NTX including part of DFW SPC AC 101631 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 06/10/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1847Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 https://radar.weather.gov/station/KFWS/standard Its happening S and W of DFW. The Metroplex itself looks to miss the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 10, 2023 Author Share Posted June 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: https://radar.weather.gov/station/KFWS/standard Its happening S and W of DFW. The Metroplex itself looks to miss the storms. Story of the season. Hillsboro/Corsicana/Waco triangle gets slammed while DFW stays nice and calm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Story of the season. Hillsboro/Corsicana/Waco triangle gets slammed while DFW stays nice and calm The Mansfield - DeSoto area always seems to get the goods (probably benefitting from a bit of an orographic boost via. Cedar Hill). But otherwise, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Well, we finally got a little engine that could doing the best it can to break through the stable layer along the Denton/Cooke County line... EDIT: Annnd she's dead... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 56 minutes ago, Powerball said: Well, we finally got a little engine that could doing the best it can to break through the stable layer along the Denton/Cooke County line... EDIT: Annnd she's dead... She got a new breath of wind, and actually has a little bit of *OOMPH!!!* with it now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 55 mph in Texas in mid-June is not common. Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC035-217-251-110100- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0324.230611T0001Z-230611T0100Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 701 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Johnson County in north central Texas... Eastern Bosque County in central Texas... Hill County in central Texas... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 700 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Cleburne State Park, or 15 miles southwest of Cleburne, moving east at 55 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Some actual severe storm reports. You could call this a decently organized slight/enhanced sort of day. For once in the last several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Lol Tues/Wed look done at this point, ULL over the Great Lakes is crushing/suppressing anything that tries to eject those two days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 On 6/10/2023 at 5:50 PM, Powerball said: The Mansfield - DeSoto area always seems to get the goods (probably benefitting from a bit of an orographic boost via. Cedar Hill). But otherwise, yeah... And look at who's getting slammed yet again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 There was 3" hail where GRLevel3 said 3" hail north of Fort Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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