Global Average Temperature 2023

[chubbs]

15 hours ago, bdgwx said:

And here is the evolution of my predictions for the annual mean GISTEMP value as posted in this thread.

06/08: 1.05 ± 0.09

06/16: 1.06 ± 0.08

07/13: 1.062 ± 0.07

07/19: 1.060 ± 0.07

08/14: 1.075 ± 0.06 

08/25: 1.083 ± 0.05 

09/05: 1.099 ± 0.05 

The steadily increasing trend in your model indicates you may be right about the current model forecast underestimating the mean. Not surprising that the model has erred low. We've never had a year separate from the others in summer like this one, so hard to forecast this year from past behavior. If the current separation vs existing records holds through the rest of the year, then your model will be low. We'll see.

 

[Nickysixes]

Average temps are warmer nowadays because there are THOUSANDS  more reporting stations than years ago. They don't like to talk about that though and figure the average Joe can't comprehend such

[bdgwx]

Another month and another record in ERSST.

[chubbs]

 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Another month and another record in ERSST.

A large portion of the Atlantic Basin had their warmest ERSST August SSTs on record helping to boost the global SST record even higher.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

August was the 9th warmest on record nationwide, with meteorological summer coming in 15th place. While the final ranking is not terribly impressive, it's important to note that only three summers of the 20th century were warmer than this summer nationally (1934, 1936 & 1988).

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Digging a little deeper into the contiguous U.S. data, Louisiana had its hottest summer on record. Texas and Florida both had their 2nd hottest summers on record. The hottest summer on record in Texas was 2011 and the hottest summer on record in Florida was 1998. New Mexico had its third hottest summer on record, behind only 2011 and 2020. Only 5 states were cooler than the 20th century mean (Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee).

 

[bdgwx]

Berkeley Earth recorded the warmest August on record by a wide margin. It is also the highest anomaly for any month in their dataset.

https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/

 

[bdgwx]

GISS reported 1.24 C for August.

 

[csnavywx]

13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

GISS reported 1.24 C for August.

 

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

[bluewave]

Getting closer to our first +1.5 year.

 

 

 

[chubbs]

6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

Yes, CFS anomalies holding near high for year past 5 days. Only brief periods in Feb 2016 and feb 2020 were higher than 2023 spikes. Late winter is typically when the highest anomalies occur. The late winter spikes this year are going to come off a much higher base.

[bdgwx]

9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/7/2023 at 6:24 PM, Nickysixes said:

Average temps are warmer nowadays because there are THOUSANDS  more reporting stations than years ago. They don't like to talk about that though and figure the average Joe can't comprehend such

How exactly does a denser number of reporting stations make it warmer? 

It's odd that any Joe would "comprehend" more reporting stations as causing higher readings, when that statement does zero refutation to the idea that more reporting stations could also make colder - if/when and fairly going by that same [faux] logic.

[csnavywx]

8 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Gonna be wild if we end up breaking Feb '16 with a *September* reading, considering the current Sep. record is about 0.30 below that level.

[drstuess]

How exactly does a denser number of reporting stations make it warmer? 
It's odd that any Joe would "comprehend" more reporting stations as causing higher readings, when that statement does zero refutation to the idea that more reporting stations could also make colder - if/when and fairly going by that same [faux] logic.

No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum. /s

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[csnavywx]

On 9/15/2023 at 8:34 PM, drstuess said:

No, they just take the cumulative value across the stations. Everyone knows average = sum.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.

[drstuess]

So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.

I was being sarcastic regarding post, hence the "average=sum". Adding /s si you don't lump me in with the poster I was quoting.

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[csnavywx]

39 minutes ago, drstuess said:

I was being sarcastic regarding post, hence the "average=sum". Adding /s si you don't lump me in with the poster I was quoting.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 

Doh! Poe's Law strikes again!

[bluewave]

On 9/15/2023 at 10:12 AM, bdgwx said:

I also monitor the daily JRA55 values. So far the implied value for GISTEMP coming from JRA is 1.36 C which is close to the record of 1.37 C set in 2016/02. JRA correlates with GISTEMP at R^2 = 0.87 so it is a pretty good predictor. As I've said before it is getting harder and harder to dismiss the accelerated warming hypothesis.

Pretty impressive warming this year as each month shows no signs of letting up yet. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive warming this year as each month shows no signs of letting up yet. 
 

 

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-china-global-merged-surface-temperature.html

[bdgwx]

2023 is going to OBLITERATE the previous September record. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

2023 is going to OBLITERATE the previous September record. 

 

Prediction …

we breach the 1.5+ for the first time 

[bdgwx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Prediction …

we breach the 1.5+ for the first time 

This bout of warming has been so extreme that I think even high end warming supporters (like Hansen) have to be scratching their heads at this point.

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, bdgwx said:

This bout of warming has been so extreme that I think even high end warming supporters (like Hansen) have to be scratching their heads at this point.

September has a good shot at breaking the GISS anomaly record of 1.37 set in Feb 2016.  Sept 2015 was "only" 0.85 on GISS. Most of the nino warming was still to come at this point of the 2015/16 cycle.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, bdgwx said:

This bout of warming has been so extreme that I think even high end warming supporters (like Hansen) have to be scratching their heads at this point.

It's like a really good quarterback in Football ..doesn't through the ball to where the receiver is, he/she throws the ball to where the receiver is going to be - out in space and time.

We are not throwing the predictions to the right projection of where the curve is going to be - possibly because the acceleration itself is in a state of delta.  +d(dCC)   Something is adding -

Some of that is the immediate (likely...) correction whence La Nina circulation mode ceased - think 'elasticity'  ...  But there's something more, because in general ... climate change -related manifestations have been routinely occurring earlier than modeling now spanning the last decade or more,

During this present terms, it interesting that the warming wasn't just air, but air and sea, and everywhere, all at once.   Like, the Labrador head water warmth explosion this summer...soaring to some +12 amid the Maritime of Canada was tied to the ONI ?   Same with NW Pacific.  The Califorina current along the west coast... The ambient planar SSTs of all oceanic basins, gaining .. etc etc.  

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like a really good quarterback in Football ..doesn't through the ball to where the receiver is, he/she throws the ball to where the receiver is going to be - out in space and time.

We are not throwing the predictions to the right projection of where the curve is going to be - possibly because the acceleration itself is in a state of delta.  +d(dCC)   Something is adding -

Some of that is the immediate (likely...) correction whence La Nina circulation mode ceased - think 'elasticity'  ...  But there's something more, because in general ... climate change -related manifestations have been routinely occurring earlier than modeling now spanning the last decade or more,

During this present terms, it interesting that the warming wasn't just air, but air and sea, and everywhere, all at once.   Like, the Labrador head water warmth explosion this summer...soaring to some +12 amid the Maritime of Canada was tied to the ONI ?   Same with NW Pacific.  The Califorina current along the west coast... The ambient planar SSTs of all oceanic basins, gaining .. etc etc.  

 

 

Faster than expected, that's been the theme for some time. I'm not surprised given the history of past climate changes on earth. The models are probably underestimating some of the synergistic feedbacks of climate warming.

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Faster than expected, that's been the theme for some time. I'm not surprised given the history of past climate changes on earth. The models are probably underestimating some of the synergistic feedbacks of climate warming.

Bingo!    I've been writing about synergy in the system among these climate threads for several years now ... Mostly in deference to heat waves mechanics, but this is applicable at all scales and dimensions really.  It's interesting, but it's likely an arithmetic sum( synergies of smaller systems )/n-terms = might look a lot like that secondary acceleration.   

Synergy is tough to predict though.  It's really based upon the 2ndary interactions of the result set - so is entirely emergent.   Like, A, B, C, ...F, G, H all are results of the linear mechanics, but then A, or B, or C ...etc, may constructively interfere with any of those others, to produce a new result set, A', B', C' ...   which may interact again ...to produce A'', B'', C'' ... and on and so on.

I mean you know this... just sayn'.  The synergistic maximum is when all those "imaginary" possibilities no longer actualize to then constructively interfere again.  

[SnoSki14]

19 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Faster than expected, that's been the theme for some time. I'm not surprised given the history of past climate changes on earth. The models are probably underestimating some of the synergistic feedbacks of climate warming.

Not to sound alarmist but at this point voting for certain political parties really is a choice between life & death for many. 

That being said even the anti-climate deniers aren't doing nearly enough to address the ongoing climate change acceleration. 

[TheClimateChanger]