Global Average Temperature 2023

[TheClimateChanger]

It's funny to me how so-called climate skeptics can reject the incredible wealth of scientific evidence supporting the anthropogenic global warming theory, yet latch onto whatever sort of new, random theory someone puts out to explain recent warming. All of that healthy skepticism flies right out the window when there's something you can point to other than human-induced carbon pollution. 

[Typhoon Tip]

22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Hottest month on record in New England as a whole, and yet we have posters from New England on here calling it the year without a summer. Go figure.

Incredibly, 4 of the top 10 hottest Julys on record in New England have occurred within the last six years, and both of the top 2 within the last four years. By comparison, only 3 of the top 10 hottest Julys date back to the 111-year period from 1895 and 2005.

 

 

OH, it's not in dispute.

It's a factoid of fascination issue - that we're doing in low temperatures.

Which ... indirectly, ( if holds water, pun absolutely intended to irritate muah hahaha) ...is tantamount to really saying we're smashing DP records.  

Certainly nocturnal clouds play a role, too. 

[qg_omega]

58 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The idea that volcanos can have a significant impact on temperature has already been pre-bunked by Ryan's climate denying friend and minister of truth, Anthony Watts. See here, here, and here, for examples.

But on a more serious note, that's a bunch of baloney about Hunga Tonga. Billions of years of earth's history and there's no evidence for a "volcanic summer" until 2022. You do realize something like 70% of the globe is water. How many undersea volcanoes have erupted over the millennia? 

The sulfur aerosol claims are nonsense too. Nobody pedaling that theory has yet proven or shown that aerosol concentration is currently lower than it had been. How in the world can reduced aerosols be the cause of the recent warming if aerosol concentrations are unchanged? If somebody can offer proof that aerosol concentrations are significantly lower than they had been, then I would be willing to entertain the theory. All the data I've looked at from NASA and NOAA suggests recent aerosol concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere have actually been quite elevated from all the wildfire smoke. So if anything aerosols are contributing to some degree of cooling.

The bottom line is Professor Mann is 100% correct. It's not aerosols, it's not Hunga Tonga, and it's certainly not unicorns or fairy dust. It's carbon pollution, just like Professor Mann and other climatologists have been predicting for many decades.

This is all misinformation

[bdgwx]

On 8/9/2023 at 11:24 AM, qg_omega said:

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1689291627825651712?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Nobody is suppressing discussion. Already there are 4 publications that I'm aware of that discuss the contribution from Hunga Tonga. This list is likely to grow.

Jucker et al. 2023

Jenkins et al. 2023

Zhang et al. 2022

Zhu et al. 2022

Sellitto et al. 2022

2 of these say the surface temperature will go down, 1 says it will go up slightly, and 1 is more of a regional impact study that doesn't make a statement about the global effect. None of them show significant global warming.

Andrew Dressler posted commentary regarding this topic today. It is worth a read.

Hunga Tonga may be contributing some to the recent warming. In fact, I've mentioned a couple times that we should not be so quick to dismiss its contribution. But to insinuate that it is the primary contributing factor to the recent warming is inconsistent with the consilience of evidence.

BTW...Ryan Maue is on my long list of contrarians that promulgate misinformation regarding the climate. He got added when he and David Legates overstepped their positions and conspired to publish the contrarian Climate Change Flyers on a website run by Willie Soon with the Presidential Seal in a move that was at best unethical and at worst illegal under US Code 18 § 1017.

[bdgwx]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's funny to me how so-called climate skeptics can reject the incredible wealth of scientific evidence supporting the anthropogenic global warming theory, yet latch onto whatever sort of new, random theory someone puts out to explain recent warming. All of that healthy skepticism flies right out the window when there's something you can point to other than human-induced carbon pollution. 

It is especially perplexing to hear people claim that a mere 150 Mt of H2O can be responsible for significant warming, but those same people are incredulous about 2,500,000 Mt of CO2 having any effect at all.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Nobody is suppressing discussion. Already there are 4 publications that I'm aware that discuss the contribution from Hunga Tonga. This list is likely to grow.

Jucker et al. 2023

Jenkins et al. 2023

Zhang et al. 2022

Zhu et al. 2022

2 of these say the surface temperature will go down, 1 says it will go up slightly, and 1 is more of a regional effect study. None of them show significant warming.

Andrew Dressler posted commentary regarding this topic today. It is worth a read.

Hunga Tonga may be contributing some to the recent warming. In fact, I've mentioned a couple times that we should not be so quick to dismiss its contribution. But to insinuate that it is the primary contributing factor to the warming is inconsistent with the consilience of evidence.

BTW...Ryan Maue is on my long list of contrarians that promulgate misinformation regarding the climate. He got added when he and David Legates overstepped their positions and conspired to publish the contrarian Climate Change Flyers on a website run by Willie Soon with the Presidential Seal in a move that was at best unethical and at worst illegal under US Code 18 § 1017.

 According to your first link, the probability for a multi-year El Niño may be enhanced while the volcano still has influence, especially during 2025-9. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a comes rather close to a typical El Niño (mild NW and cool SE). Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern:

 

"The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef), and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies consistent with an El Nino-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection

 

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

According to your first link, the probability for a multi-year El Niño may be enhanced while the volcano still has influence, especially during 2025-9. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a comes rather close to a typical El Niño (mild NW and cool SE). Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern:

Yep. That definitely caught my attention. Check out figure 10a as well. 

[chubbs]

The 12-month average energy imbalance is roughly twice as large now vs the last big nino in 2015. Not surprising that we are seeing a larger enso response this year. Per my post above the east-based pattern is also favorable for warming. Enso is by far the biggest change this year vs last. One way to think about it. The atmosphere wants to be warmer but the ocean is holding it back. If the ocean cooling relaxes, the atmosphere can warm quite a bit before loosing too much to space.

[TheClimateChanger]

New all-time record dropped in Valencia, Spain, where the proverbial mercury climbed to 46.8C - beating the prior record by a whopping 3.4C. It was so hot that most commenters on Twitter/X are suggesting the reading had to have been erroneous or taken on the ground. The Spanish national weather service had to put out a statement confirming the validity of the reading, amid all of the doubters.

 

 

[bdgwx]

Martin Jucker of the Jucker et al. 2023 regional impact study of Hunga Tonga posted on twitter yesterday. Their global result...0.04 C of warming with a range of -0.05 to +0.11 C (1σ). That is 4 out of 4 studies that show 0.1 C or less warming. He does say his MiMA simulation which adjusts the SST shows 0.08 C of warming.

He does, however, reiterate that the biggest effects regionally will be in the northern hemisphere during the winter.

 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Martin Jucker of the Jucker et al. 2023 regional impact study of Hunga Tonga posted on twitter yesterday. Their global result...0.04 C of warming with a range of -0.05 to +0.11 C (1σ). That is 4 out of 4 studies that show 0.1 C or less warming. He does say his MiMA simulation which adjusts the SST shows 0.08 C of warming.

He does, however, reiterate that the biggest effects regionally will be in the northern hemisphere during the winter.

 

Indeed. During winter, that study suggests a cooling effect from the volcano in places like Australia, Scandinavia, Korea, and the SE US especially years 3-7. Some of this is likely due to a favoring of El Niño and much of the cooling appears to correlate with increased clouds/precip if I recall correctly.

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Martin Jucker of the Jucker et al. 2023 regional impact study of Hunga Tonga posted on twitter yesterday. Their global result...0.04 C of warming with a range of -0.05 to +0.11 C (1σ). That is 4 out of 4 studies that show 0.1 C or less warming. He does say his MiMA simulation which adjusts the SST shows 0.08 C of warming.

He does, however, reiterate that the biggest effects regionally will be in the northern hemisphere during the winter.

 

Yep, that's the kicker. The secondary knock-on effects in this case might end up being greater than a simplistic radiative forcing calculation would suggest. And the regional signal for an ensemble is surprisingly large. Large enough that it's a consideration when putting together seasonal forecasts for the next few years. Might -- for instance -- nudge the typical Nino winter/spring pattern of a BoA low further west a bit, blow out snow cover early and chain to more Greenland ridging in the summer. That scenario would certainly match a warmer Arctic and regionally cooler mid-lats and wouldn't shock me if a number of the ensemble members are sniffing out just such a teleconnection.

Also, ooof for West Coast rainfall and snowpack if that's correct.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yep, that's the kicker. The secondary knock-on effects in this case might end up being greater than a simplistic radiative forcing calculation would suggest. And the regional signal for an ensemble is surprisingly large. Large enough that it's a consideration when putting together seasonal forecasts for the next few years. Might -- for instance -- nudge the typical Nino winter/spring pattern of a BoA low further west a bit, blow out snow cover early and chain to more Greenland ridging in the summer. That scenario would certainly match a warmer Arctic and regionally cooler mid-lats and wouldn't shock me if a number of the ensemble members are sniffing out just such a teleconnection.

Also, ooof for West Coast rainfall and snowpack if that's correct.

Obsevationally ...seems these scenarios are emerging already - perhaps their coherency improves in future seasons and years, but already there's 'tendencies'

I also have a hypothesis that there is a unique feed-back ( constructive interference) circumstance between western N/A 'heat genesis domain' and your descriptions above.  The CC signal is tending to transfix a R-wave structures ... perhaps in no small part due to the processes that you're speculating. That domes the west, then within ...particularly high/favorable surface kinetic generation eventually integrates heights and adds back to the super-synoptic signal.  

It would nicely explain why modeling was consummately showing extended range ridge eruptions over eastern mid latitudes, only to have them decay moving extended ranges into the mid range ... and it did this - as far as I can tell - every time, since late Spring. It’s as tho the physics don’t or slip emergence of these synergistic results farther out in time - which probably makes sense considering.  Here we are, attempting to raise heights again ... we'll see -

so this is kind of twofold - I’m talking about both climate change related matter… But also how perhaps is effecting guidance performance over the N/A continent. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 8/10/2023 at 1:15 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

New all-time record dropped in Valencia, Spain, where the proverbial mercury climbed to 46.8C - beating the prior record by a whopping 3.4C. It was so hot that most commenters on Twitter/X are suggesting the reading had to have been erroneous or taken on the ground. The Spanish national weather service had to put out a statement confirming the validity of the reading, amid all of the doubters.

 

 

In other climate news besides the extreme heat in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa, deadly fires have broken out on Maui in recent days.

The State of Florida is off to an incredibly scorching start to the month of August, about a third of the way through the month. Florida is coming off of its hottest July on record, and things have only heated up further this month. Most places have far exceeded standing records for hottest first 10 days of August.

Here's a look at the 5 hottest periods on record at several locations in the State:

Miami, FL (1896-present)

Orlando, FL (1892-present)

Key West (1872-present)

Marathon (1950-present)

Fort Myers (1892-present)

Daytona Beach (1923-present)

Tampa (1890-present)

Tallahassee (1893-present)

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

In other climate news besides the extreme heat in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa, deadly fires have broken out on Maui in recent days.

 Please elaborate on the connection of CC and the terrible Maui fires. I'm asking because I posted a detailed write-up about the causes in the relevant tropical thread (with NWS sources cited) and didn't realize CC was assumed to be a contributing factor:

 

[chubbs]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Please elaborate on the connection of CC and the terrible Maui fires. I'm asking because I posted a detailed write-up about the causes in the relevant tropical thread (with NWS sources cited) and didn't realize CC was assumed to be a contributing factor:

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Please elaborate on the connection of CC and the terrible Maui fires. I'm asking because I posted a detailed write-up about the causes in the relevant tropical thread (with NWS sources cited) and didn't realize CC was assumed to be a contributing factor:

 

Might be relevant: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/22/jcli-d-15-0006.1.xml

Paper's a bit dated now but conclusion still holds. Stronger drying from subsidence probably not helping.

And whaddya know:

Now, I'm sure there was some component of drying from mass deposition from the TC (as Andy points out in the comments), but it was very dry regardless. 

Most publications will probably cite the stuff we hear all the time (increased SSTs, etc), but being as SSTs are regionally cooler than normal, that wasn't much of a factor here. Gonna say the downsloping helping mix down super dry air aloft was it.

[chubbs]

On 8/11/2023 at 2:52 PM, GaWx said:

 Please elaborate on the connection of CC and the terrible Maui fires. I'm asking because I posted a detailed write-up about the causes in the relevant tropical thread (with NWS sources cited) and didn't realize CC was assumed to be a contributing factor:

 

A paragraph from Dr. Daniel Swain's blog (at end after discussion of upcoming weather on W coast):

As much as it might surprise some folks, the Hawaiian islands are no stranger to fire. Nearly all ignitions today are caused by human activities (though most are accidental). Wildfire risk is rising, especially on the dry sides of the islands (which, in some cases, receive an annual average precipitation similar to that of Los Angeles), due to a combination of unmanaged invasive grasses building up huge fuel loads on abandoned plantations and climate change–which is likely increasing the duration and severity of droughts on the lee sides of the islands and the intensity of wet-dry cycling of precipitation (which favors extra vegetation growth, and then rapid drying of that extra growth during high risk periods). Here, too, as in so many other places, subdivisions have been built and expanded that increasingly extend into high fire risk zones. In fact, in County of Maui planning documents, nearly all of Lahaina was characterized as being at high to extreme wildfire risk.

https://weatherwest.com/archives/29215

One other thought: We often hear  "CO2 is plant food", i.e. increased CO2 increases plant growth when conditions allow. This would also increase fire risk in areas like Hawaii with wet/dry season cycling.

[bdgwx]

GISS published the July update for GISTEMP. It came in at 1.18 C.

Here are the changes on this update cycle.

Jan: 0.86 => 0.87

Feb: 0.97 => 0.98

Mar: 1.20 => 1.20

Apr: 1.00 => 1.00

May: 0.93 => 0.93

Jun: 1.07 => 1.08

Here is my updated analysis.

Jan: 0.87 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.99)

Feb: 0.98 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.90)

Mar: 1.20 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.86)

Apr: 1.00 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.71)

May: 0.93 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.46)

Jun: 1.08 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.11)

Jul: 1.18 ± 0.02 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.14)

Aug: 1.12 ± 0.16 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.46)

Sep: 1.10 ± 0.21 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.84)

Oct: 1.13 ± 0.22 C (3m lagged ENSO +1.00)

Nov: 1.15 ± 0.23 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.19)

Dec: 1.15± 0.24 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.32)

Jan - Jul average: 1.03 C

Aug - Dec predicted average: 1.13 C

2023 Average: 1.075 ± 0.06 

Probability of >= 1.02 is 97% (new record)

Probability of >= 1.03 is 95%

Probability of <= 1.01 is 3%

Probability of between 1.02 and 1.04 is 13%

Probability of between 1.05 and 1.07 is 34%

Probability of between 1.08 and 1.10 is 35%

Probability of >= 1.11 is 15% 

[bdgwx]

Berkeley Earth is saying that it is almost certain (99% chance) that 2023 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record.

They have a lot of good information in their July update.

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2023-temperature-update/

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

This is a fascinating article. This would validate some of my predictions.

Here's what I told WeatherRusty about 12 years ago in a PM:

Quote

Hey Rusty. I just wanted to reply to your comment about 3C of warming by 2060 not being possible. [REDACTED PERSONAL INFORMATION] I've been around these forums since [REDACTED], trying to raise awareness of climate change. Back then, nobody would listen. It was all a hoax to the other posters. Funny thing is the predictions are coming true left and right & even faster than I thought.

Anyways, to get back to your comment, I don't believe we have enough information to definitively state the exact sensitivity of the climate. Unlike the deniers, I don't think this is a good thing. Rather, the uncertainties should be cause for concern. The mainstream view is alarming enough. Imagine if it's even worse than thought. Current temperature records disclose only about 1-1.5F warming in the U.S. I think this is low, not high, even with the adjustments made by NCDC to the USHCN data. The deniers are correct that siting and urban heat contamination can affect the temperature, but the reality is these problems are not new & were a much bigger problem in the early days. I'm currently working on a blog to highlight the physical changes that have occurred in Ohio & the midwest. The changes are not consistent with a 1F warming. Some species of trees are leafing out 2-4 weeks earlier than they did 100+ years ago. Something I don't think most are aware is that frosts used to occur in July nearly every year in inland parts of northeast Ohio prior to 1900. I mean this is just bizarre... imagine a frost in Ohio in July nowadays. I don't even recall seeing frosts in northern MN, northern WI, the UP of MI, or northern New England in July anytime soon. Heck, frosts are probably rarer in June & August today, than they were in July back then. Extreme winter minima are also rapidly warming, and it's certainly unrelated to urban warming in deurbanized parts of the Rust Belt. In the 60s to 80s, most winters dropped to between -10 and -20. It could almost be counted on as a guarantee. The average for those decades was -10.3F in my area. In the 1990s, the average rose to -3.2F (and this included a -22F in 1994). Over the past 15 years, the average annual low has been just -1.1F! Nearly half of the years have failed to drop below zero, unheard of 30+ years ago! The Plant Hardiness Map update last year claims this area went from zone 5B (-10 to -15) to zone 6A (-5 to -10). In reality, the last 15 years show it's zone 6B (0 to -5) and on the verge of becoming zone 7A (+5 to 0). Already, closer to the lake, it is seldom dropping below zero. Lake Erie is actually warming faster than the surrounding land because the ice season is MUCH shorter than it used to be. In 1936, the supposedly super hot year, ice didn't melt from the east end until the end of May! There was a bitter cold January, February, and April that year to offset the scorching July & August heat wave & drought. The average number of days with ice cover has decreased by more than one per year since the 1960s! This is why the lake temperatures are breaking records almost every summer now.

I posted some of this data here, and I will be uploading it to my blog. The point is there are a lot of feedbacks, even on a local and regional level that will AMPLIFY the warming. Once the Great Lakes no longer get ice cover, for instance, and stay mild year round, it will greatly change the climate of the region! The Great Lakes already moderate the climate, with open waters year round that effect will be amplified. I have a theory that the earth's climate is like a ball on a seesaw with a catch basin on both sides. Once it starts tipping, there's nothing to stop it until it reaches a new state. I'm talking non-linear effects with temperature changes on the order of degrees in a matter of decades. The geologic record shows the earth's climate has been in constant flux. The present changes are not unusual or even particularly noteworthy, except for the fact that the changes are being driven by manmade carbon emissions. There have been times in the past where the arctic and antarctic have been subtropical. So when I suggest 3C of warming by 2060, it is very realistic. The IPCC projects up to 6C of warming by 2100. On that path, we would easily have experienced 3C of warming by 2060.

My point is the climate is changing, and it's doing so faster than most realize. Ironically, some of the deniers have proved to be dumber than plants and insects. These "lowly" life forms have already detected the changing climate and these are evident in changing behaviors. I've pretty much come to terms with the fact that the climate is going to keep changing and there's nothing we can do to stop it. There will definitely be some positives... IPCC projects increased crop yield up to 3C of warming. It will open up more arable land, etc.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

What is incredible to me is just 12 years ago, even hardcore believers in climate change couldn’t fathom the possibility of 3C of warming by 2060. Now, here we are in 2023, and already exceeding 1.5C of warming. Scientists are saying we will likely breach 2C during the 2030s. It doesn’t seem so far fetched now, does it? And these new findings about the methane really supports my analogy of earth’s climate as a seesaw.

[chubbs]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What is incredible to me is just 12 years ago, even hardcore believers in climate change couldn’t fathom the possibility of 3C of warming by 2060. Now, here we are in 2023, and already exceeding 1.5C of warming. Scientists are saying we will likely breach 2C during the 2030s. It doesn’t seem so far fetched now, does it? And these new findings about the methane really supports my analogy of earth’s climate as a seesaw.

I don't see evidence of any big temperature non-linearity. Temperatures are rising faster because man-made forcing has increased at a faster rate. The forcing increase is due to reduced sulfur emissions mainly while CO2 emissions remain elevated. There are also some natural effects that are lining up this decade for warming: the volcano, warming in E Pac,  and per chart below a solar cycle which is stronger than the last. If we get CO2 emissions under control the rate of temperature increase will drop. With fossil fuels losing competitive advantage, holding under 2C is feasible, but we need to make climate change a higher priority.

[GaWx]

On 8/13/2023 at 6:44 AM, chubbs said:

A paragraph from Dr. Daniel Swain's blog (at end after discussion of upcoming weather on W coast):

As much as it might surprise some folks, the Hawaiian islands are no stranger to fire. Nearly all ignitions today are caused by human activities (though most are accidental). Wildfire risk is rising, especially on the dry sides of the islands (which, in some cases, receive an annual average precipitation similar to that of Los Angeles), due to a combination of unmanaged invasive grasses building up huge fuel loads on abandoned plantations and climate change–which is likely increasing the duration and severity of droughts on the lee sides of the islands and the intensity of wet-dry cycling of precipitation (which favors extra vegetation growth, and then rapid drying of that extra growth during high risk periods). Here, too, as in so many other places, subdivisions have been built and expanded that increasingly extend into high fire risk zones. In fact, in County of Maui planning documents, nearly all of Lahaina was characterized as being at high to extreme wildfire risk.

https://weatherwest.com/archives/29215

One other thought: We often hear  "CO2 is plant food", i.e. increased CO2 increases plant growth when conditions allow. This would also increase fire risk in areas like Hawaii with wet/dry season cycling.

What do you mean by "wet/dry season cycling" and how does that relate to increased CO2? Thank you in advance.

[TheClimateChanger]

New paper from preeminent American climate scientist James Hansen suggests we breach 1.5C of globally averaged warming by next year. Thoughts?

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

[TheClimateChanger]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

New paper from preeminent American climate scientist James Hansen suggests we breach 1.5C of globally averaged warming by next year. Thoughts?

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf

It’s also worth pointing out that the IPCC already suggests we were at 1.5C of warming relative to 1850, even in 2015. So by that metric, we would likely be approaching 2C of total warming already.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/