Global Average Temperature 2023

[bdgwx]

My expectation for GISTEMP for the month of July is now 1.23 ± 0.13 C. That is a gap up on the record from 0.94 C of 0.29 C. And that is with a 3-month lagged ONI of only 0.16. That is astonishing!

 

[bdgwx]

The May CERES data just came out. The 12m running average EEI is +1.97 W/m2. The 36m running average is +1.44 W/m2. Yikes!

Credit goes to Prof Eliot Jacobson for the graph.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Logarithmic. I contest that there are just more extremes. 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

"This is particularly unusual for a summer month. Historically we’ve had a lot more temperature variability in winter months and set new record anomalies in December, January, or February. Seeing this large a record in July is stunning."

Yeah he's right. It's always "easier" - for lack of better word - to move an anomaly up in winter, than it is to move an anomaly up in summer.

This might be counter intuitive for some, but it's simply an artifact of thermodynamics and heat budgeting, combined.  In the winter, when the average high in SNE nadirs around 32 F ...  you can find a synoptic way to 72... or even higher. Such as was the case in a few Febs and Mar in the last 10 years.  30 to even 45 or more deg higher than the average in those scenarios. But, an average high of 82 max seasonal average in July is not going find a synoptic means at Boston to put up a 122. Not without the shining two concurrent suns ... so to speak ...  

A similar reason to why the ballast of NE U.S. warming in this hockey-stick CC curve over recent decades has been observed in the winter-time nocturnal lows. 

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"This is particularly unusual for a summer month. Historically we’ve had a lot more temperature variability in winter months and set new record anomalies in December, January, or February. Seeing this large a record in July is stunning."

Yeah he's right. It's always "easier" - for lack of better word - to move an anomaly up in winter, than it is to move an anomaly up in summer.

This might be counter intuitive for some, but it's simply an artifact of thermodynamics and heat budgeting, combined.  In the winter, when the average high in SNE nadirs around 32 F ...  you can find a synoptic way to 72... or even higher. Such as was the case in a few Febs and Mar in the last 10 years.  30 to even 45 or more deg higher than the average in those scenarios. But, an average high of 82 max seasonal average in July is not going find a synoptic means at Boston to put up a 122. Not without the shining two concurrent suns ... so to speak ...  

A similar reason to why the ballast of NE U.S. warming in this hockey-stick CC curve over recent decades has been observed in the winter-time nocturnal lows. 

I think everyone thought I was crazy when I predicted we would breach 3C of warming by 2060 back around 2009 or so. Now, it's looking like 2C by 2030s. I wonder if this still sounds alarmist to these people.

And to be quite frank, these numbers are almost certainly underdone. If they extended the datasets back to the 18th century, I bet they'd find another quarter to half degree of warming in addition to the official numbers. It's clear from the records available that it was even colder prior to 1850.

[bdgwx]

That 36m running average EEI of +1.44 W/m2 from CERES is extremely high. Even assuming a modest climate sensitivity of 0.5 C per W/m2 that is 0.7 C of warming that is already queued up. I'm cautious about whether 2 C by the 2030s is possible, but I'm certainly not going to eliminate the possibility. Afterall, had you asked me 3 years ago if the EEI would be above 1 W/m2 in 2023 I would have said no way. Hansen et al. 2022 certainly seem to think it is possible. There are some big names on that paper including Loeb who runs the CERES project.

Side note...I wonder if we haven't underestimated the Hunga-Tonga effect?

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, bdgwx said:

That 36m running average EEI of +1.44 W/m2 from CERES is extremely high. Even assuming a modest climate sensitivity of 0.5 C per W/m2 that is 0.7 C of warming that is already queued up. I'm cautious about whether 2 C by the 2030s is possible, but I'm certainly not going to eliminate the possibility. Afterall, had you asked me 3 years ago if the EEI would be above 1 W/m2 in 2023 I would have said no way. Hansen et al. 2022 certainly seem to think it is possible. There are some big names on that paper including Loeb who runs the CERES project.

Side note...I wonder if we haven't underestimated the Hunga-Tonga effect?

Doubtful. I have been looking into this stuff for decades, and have never seen a "volcanic summer" type effect ever noted in the scientific literature. Is there a single known or posited case of a submarine volcano having a substantial warming effect? I don't doubt the possibility of a small effect, but a large one? To be clear, I'm aware there are instances of warming attributed to the greenhouse gases emitted from large eruptions or a series of eruptions (flood basalt) but such warming occurs over a substantial period of time. In the immediate aftermath of these eruptions, there would be periods of volcanic winter.

[bdgwx]

And this is with a 4m lagged ONI of only -0.1. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

And this is with a 4m lagged ONI of only -0.1. 

Very impressive. From Dr. Spencer:

[bluewave]

This was the first +1.5C July. Looks like we are ahead of the pace required to have the first full year of +1.5C by 2033.

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the first +1.5C July. Looks like we are ahead of the pace required to have the first full year of +1.5C by 2033.

To think there are still quacks like Joe Bastardi downplaying this is beyond reason 

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[bdgwx]

ERSST came in at a record +0.47 relative to 1991-2020 for July 2023.

 

[chubbs]

There are many factors contributing to the warming spike this year. An additional one is the east-based pattern of this nino. Below is a slide from a recent talk by climate scientist Tim Andrews. Warming in the east Pacific produces stronger positive feedbacks than warming in the west Pacific. We've had an unusually large temperature swing this year in the far EPac, even for a nino onset year.

Below is the bottom-line from the talk. Some of increased warming anticipated below has already occurred courtesy of the 2015+2023 ninos.

https://github.com/timothyandrews/cfmip2023/blob/main/Andrews_CFMIP_Jul2023.pdf

[bluewave]

The record warmth this July increases the odds that 2023 will finish as the warmest year on record.

 

 

[bdgwx]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record warmth this July increases the odds that 2023 will finish as the warmest year on record.

 

 

It's buried pretty deep in Dr. Hausfather's article, but he now gives 2023 a 98% chance of a new record. I'll provide updates later but my model is now at 96%.

[bdgwx]

On 7/31/2023 at 10:35 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Doubtful. I have been looking into this stuff for decades, and have never seen a "volcanic summer" type effect ever noted in the scientific literature. Is there a single known or posited case of a submarine volcano having a substantial warming effect? I don't doubt the possibility of a small effect, but a large one? To be clear, I'm aware there are instances of warming attributed to the greenhouse gases emitted from large eruptions or a series of eruptions (flood basalt) but such warming occurs over a substantial period of time. In the immediate aftermath of these eruptions, there would be periods of volcanic winter.

I hear what you're saying. And I'm skeptical of significant warming claims myself. Afterall the UWIR must pass through 12,000,000 MtH2O before it encounters the extra 150 MtH2O that Hunga Tonga put up there.

However, the extra H2O is expected to deplete O3 making the ozone hole larger. And that is exactly what observations are showing. Since O3 does more to block incoming shortwave radiation than outgoing longwave radiation in the stratosphere we should expect a slightly larger bump up in the planetary energy imbalance than if we had only considered the H2O effect itself. 

Of course I don't think either effect is all that large and would almost certainly max out at no more than a few 0.01 of a degree C bump in the global average temperature. It certainly doesn't explain the recent bout of warming we've seen this year.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

July 2023 was the 11th hottest July on record in the United States. Maine, Florida, Arizona, and New Mexico all experienced their hottest July on record, with an additional 8 states seeing a top five warmest month. Only 5 states - all in the upper midwest - were significantly below the average.

The only non-21st century years with hotter Julys than this nationally were 1936, 1934, 1901, 1931, and 1980 [the latter two by less than one tenth of a degree]. So while we may not have been quite as hot as other parts of the globe, it certainly wasn't a mild month by any stretch of the imagination in the U.S.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

July 2023 was the 11th hottest July on record in the United States. Maine, Florida, Arizona, and New Mexico all experienced their hottest July on record, with an additional 8 states seeing a top five warmest month. Only 5 states - all in the upper midwest - were significantly below the average.

The only non-21st century years with hotter Julys than this nationally were 1936, 1934, 1901, 1931, and 1980 [the latter two by less than one tenth of a degree]. So while we may not have been quite as hot as other parts of the globe, it certainly wasn't a mild month by any stretch of the imagination in the U.S.

Arizona and New Mexico demolished their records for hottest month by more than 1.5°. That's enormous on a statewide basis.

[Typhoon Tip]

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be.  

I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows. 

[roardog]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be.  

I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows. 

I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something. 

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be.  

I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows. 

Yes it was the high nightly lows that drove July warmth in the northeast. Nights warming faster than days is a  greenhouse gas signal.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

I was going to say, how did Maine have the hottest July on record? I wasn’t paying that close attention to that area but it couldn’t have been that hot in Maine with the pattern we had in July. Maine must have had record high dewpoints for the month or something. 

It was the highest July average dewpoints on record for New England keeping the low temperatures at record high levels.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	62.4	0
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	82.4	0
2	1952	82.0	0
3	1959	81.4	0
4	2023	80.6	0
-	2019	80.6	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	71.5	0
2	2018	70.9	0
3	2020	69.9	0
4	1970	69.6	0
5	1952	69.5	0

[qg_omega]

On 8/5/2023 at 9:03 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

 

It’s very clearly sulfur reduction + 40 trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere.  To just ignore those is extremely wrong

[TheClimateChanger]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be.  

I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows. 

Hottest month on record in New England as a whole, and yet we have posters from New England on here calling it the year without a summer. Go figure.

Incredibly, 4 of the top 10 hottest Julys on record in New England have occurred within the last six years, and both of the top 2 within the last four years. By comparison, only 3 of the top 10 hottest Julys date back to the 111-year period from 1895 and 2005.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Looking solely at minima, this year was the highest on record by a full degree. That's a substantial deviation when you are considering a whole region. The mean regional minima was 61.4F this year - an astounding 6.1F above the 20th century mean! Prior to 2013, there had never been a July with a mean minimum in excess of 60F.

[roardog]

I’m guessing the very warm Atlantic waters are helping New England in recent years too. 

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It’s very clearly sulfur reduction + 40 trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere.  To just ignore those is extremely wrong

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1689291627825651712?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1689291627825651712?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

The idea that volcanos can have a significant impact on temperature has already been pre-bunked by Ryan's climate denying friend and minister of truth, Anthony Watts. See here, here, and here, for examples.

But on a more serious note, that's a bunch of baloney about Hunga Tonga. Billions of years of earth's history and there's no evidence for a "volcanic summer" until 2022. You do realize something like 70% of the globe is water. How many undersea volcanoes have erupted over the millennia? 

The sulfur aerosol claims are nonsense too. Nobody pedaling that theory has yet proven or shown that aerosol concentration is currently lower than it had been. How in the world can reduced aerosols be the cause of the recent warming if aerosol concentrations are unchanged? If somebody can offer proof that aerosol concentrations are significantly lower than they had been, then I would be willing to entertain the theory. All the data I've looked at from NASA and NOAA suggests recent aerosol concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere have actually been quite elevated from all the wildfire smoke. So if anything aerosols are contributing to some degree of cooling.

The bottom line is Professor Mann is 100% correct. It's not aerosols, it's not Hunga Tonga, and it's certainly not unicorns or fairy dust. It's carbon pollution, just like Professor Mann and other climatologists have been predicting for many decades.