Global Average Temperature 2023

[chubbs]

8 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Good thing is that we're going to be able to test this prediction pretty soon. Agree that this year was like a coiled spring from a global temp standpoint. Key will be to see where that spring manages to jump to.

Yes that's the $64 question. Here is a longer view of the daily CFS re-analysis anomalies. There is an annual cycle with smaller anomalies in the summer. This year's summer anomaly spikes are unusual, sending the blue 91-day mean well above previous summers. Like you say, the next few months are key in evaluating where stand. Hopefully the rise this summer has borrowed from the rise typically seen in the fall of developing nino. We'll see.

[bdgwx]

For those interested...the CERES net TOA flux (EEI) is much easier to download than I originally thought. Go to the following link. Make sure TOA Fluxes is ticked with Net Flux and All Sky ticked as well. Make sure Monthly and Global are ticked as well. Click Visualize Data. When the plot appears click on the graph and you'll see a Save Data as ASCII File button. Click that and you've got data that can be easily loaded into Excel, R, or whatever. Make sure you do a 12m moving average or 13m centered average to remove the annual cycle. The 12m average ending in April 2023 is 1.81 W/m2...the highest observed.

https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFTOA42Selection.jsp

[chubbs]

12 hours ago, bdgwx said:

For those interested...the CERES net TOA flux (EEI) is much easier to download than I originally thought. Go to the following link. Make sure TOA Fluxes is ticked with Net Flux and All Sky ticked as well. Make sure Monthly and Global are ticked as well. Click Visualize Data. When the plot appears click on the graph and you'll see a Save Data as ASCII File button. Click that and you've got data that can be easily loaded into Excel, R, or whatever. Make sure you do a 12m moving average or 13m centered average to remove the annual cycle. The 12m average ending in April 2023 is 1.81 W/m2...the highest observed.

https://ceres-tool.larc.nasa.gov/ord-tool/jsp/EBAFTOA42Selection.jsp

Concerning, seems to be increasing faster than I would have expected based on ocean heat content or net man-made forcing info.

Hopefully we will get an update of the paper below which found reasonable agreement between Ceres to ocean heat content (Planetary Heat Uptake) through 2019. In any case we are due for a short-term reversal of recent spike. Will be interesting to see what the summer data says given the run of record temperatures.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047

[GaWx]

On 7/13/2023 at 5:34 PM, GaWx said:

 Thank you. Based on this graph, I'm estimating that ERA5 peaked at 17.08-17.09C, which is close to what I expected based on the CFSR peak of 17.23C (July 6th) since ERA5 is often 0.1 to 0.15 cooler than CFSR.

"According to provisional analysis based on reanalysis data from Japan named JRA-3Q, the average global temperature on 7 July was 17.24 degrees Celsius. This is 0.3°C above the previous record of 16.94 °C on 16 August 2016 – a strong El Niño year. "

"The Japanese reanalysis data was made available to WMO and is not yet confirmed. But it is consistent with preliminary data from the Copernicus ECMWF ERA5 dataset."

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/preliminary-data-shows-hottest-week-record-unprecedented-sea-surface-temperatures-and

 So, in summary, we have for the peaks on July 6-7 of 2023 as follows:

-ERA5: ~17.08-17.09 (considered most reliable) or ~0.28-0.29 warmer than 8/13/2016 peak of 16.80

-JRA-3Q: 17.24 or 0.30 warmer than 8/16/2016 peak of 16.94 

-CFSR: 17.23 or 0.31 warmer than 8/13-14/2016 peak of 16.92

*8/6/23 edit for ERA5: The following link states that ERA5 peaked at 17.08C on 7/6/23:

https://www.weatherandradar.com/weather-news/latest

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm really curious to know how this theoretical 160 deg F has been determined ...

CNN -

"Southern Iran registered a heat index value — the apparent “feels like” temperature to the human body — of 152 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday. Heat indexes of 160 are widely considered the upper threshold of what humans can endure."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/global-heat-wave-weather-temperatures-07-18-23/index.html

Because you can slow smoke-roast at full bird turkey at 160 F ... 

[HailMan06]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm really curious to know how this theoretical 160 deg F has been determined ...

CNN -

"Southern Iran registered a heat index value — the apparent “feels like” temperature to the human body — of 152 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday. Heat indexes of 160 are widely considered the upper threshold of what humans can endure."

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/global-heat-wave-weather-temperatures-07-18-23/index.html

Because you can slow smoke-roast at full bird turkey at 160 F ... 

Maybe around 35C wet bulb temperature?

[GaWx]

 After falling from the record global high 17.23C on July 6th back down to 16.94 on July 14th, CFSR has rewarmed to 17.17 on July 18th. It will be interesting to see whether it rises above 17.23 within the next couple of weeks as normals don't start dropping for another 2 weeks or so. Does anyone have a prediction?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After falling from the record global high 17.23C on July 6th back down to 16.94 on July 14th, CFSR has rewarmed to 17.17 on July 18th. It will be interesting to see whether it rises above 17.23 within the next couple of weeks as normals don't start dropping for another 2 weeks or so. Does anyone have a prediction?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is? 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

This was probably explained somewhere in this thread but is this based off of observations around the world? Multiple times of day averaged? Is it similar to what CDAS is? 

• CFS/CFSR is a numerical climate/weather modeling framework that ingests surface, radiosonde, and satellite observations to estimate the state of the atmosphere at hourly time resolution onward from 1 January 1979. The horizontal gridcell resolution is 0.5°x0.5° (~ 55km at 45°N). The daily means are calculated from eight 3-hourly CFS timeslices beginning at 0000 UTC. The chart and maps update each day at about 0500 UTC with CFS estimates for the preceding day. Temperature anomalies are in reference to 1979–2000 climatology for each specific day of the year.

 

[roardog]

I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’ve been looking at CDAS and it looks like the southern hemisphere is on fire toward Antarctica. That area is probably a large portion of the extreme global warmth right now. Obviously the sea ice down there is very low too. 

You're correct about early this month per this from the CFSR site: "It is important to note that much of the elevated global mean temperature signal was associated with weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere that brought warmer-than-usual air over portions of the Antarctic."

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You're correct per this from the CFSR site: "It is important to note that much of the elevated global mean temperature signal was associated with weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere that brought warmer-than-usual air over portions of the Antarctic."

 However, looking at the NH itself on the CFSR, it is now holding its own as it is actually significantly hotter than it was on July 6th. On that day it was 21.93, which was well under the then record CFSR high of 22.18 set on 8/9/2022. But that 22.18 was subsequently exceeded on 7/16/2023, when the NH hit 22.21. Moreover, it has since risen to 22.42 as of 7/18/2023, nearly 0.5 above 12 days prior!

 In the meantime, the SH has fallen markedly from the 7/6/2023's 12.62 down to 12.00 as of 7/18/2023. So, the global warmth is in mid July of 2023 more NH than SH driven vs the more SH driven record warmth of early July of 2023.

[bdgwx]

GFS is forecasting a further decline in the SH over the next 7 days. GFS 7-day forecasts are usually good for ±0.2 C uncertainty.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like that missed the early July passage 

[bdgwx]

Here is my updated analysis which includes the July IRI ENSO ensemble forecast.

Jan: 0.86 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.99)

Feb: 0.97 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.90)

Mar: 1.20 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.86)

Apr: 1.00 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.71)

May: 0.93 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.46)

Jun: 1.07 ± 0.02 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.11)

Jul: 1.16 ± 0.14 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.14)

Aug: 1.04 ± 0.22 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.46)

Sep: 1.08 ± 0.23 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.81)

Oct: 1.13 ± 0.24 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.00)

Nov: 1.15 ± 0.25 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.19)

Dec: 1.16 ± 0.26 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.32)

Jan - Jun average: 1.01 C

Jul - Dec average (predicted): 1.12 C

2023 Average: 1.060 ± 0.07 with 80% chance of >= 1.03 (new record) and 65% chance >= 1.05.

[chubbs]

15 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Here is my updated analysis which includes the July IRI ENSO ensemble forecast.

Jan: 0.86 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.99)

Feb: 0.97 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.90)

Mar: 1.20 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.86)

Apr: 1.00 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.71)

May: 0.93 ± 0.01 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.46)

Jun: 1.07 ± 0.02 C (3m lagged ENSO -0.11)

Jul: 1.16 ± 0.14 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.14)

Aug: 1.04 ± 0.22 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.46)

Sep: 1.08 ± 0.23 C (3m lagged ENSO +0.81)

Oct: 1.13 ± 0.24 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.00)

Nov: 1.15 ± 0.25 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.19)

Dec: 1.16 ± 0.26 C (predicted 3m lagged ENSO +1.32)

Jan - Jun average: 1.01 C

Jul - Dec average (predicted): 1.12 C

2023 Average: 1.060 ± 0.07 with 80% chance of >= 1.03 (new record) and 65% chance >= 1.05.

Thanks for your model predictions. I wouldn't be surprised if temps end up even higher. SST continues to move further into record territory and may separate further from the pack if nino conditions continue to build.

[chubbs]

Preliminary re-analysis estimates for July

[bdgwx]

Here is the evolution of my expectation for GISTEMP for the month of July.

6/08: 1.02 ± 0.23 C

6/16: 1.03 ± 0.22 C 

7/13: 1.11 ± 0.16 C

7/19: 1.16 ± 0.14 C

7/24: 1.20 ± 0.13 C

The previous record for July is 0.94 C set in 2019. It is looking very likely that 2023 is going to shatter that record.

[chubbs]

Per this blog, this summer's global temperatures aren't surprising. Would be interesting to see where they stack-up vs cmip5.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/are-temperatures-this-summer-hotter

[Typhoon Tip]

Synergistic events seemed to have been an underestimated phenomenon in the projections made over the decades.   

 

[chubbs]

This chart updates re-analysis estimates for July and adds era5

[chubbs]

The last point is the July average to date. Continuing to get an unusually large SST rise in this nino.

[A-L-E-K]

lol

[csnavywx]

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

The last point is the July average to date. Continuing to get an unusually large SST rise in this nino.

The gap-up coming for July is pretty surreal, esp. considering that ENSO effects are usually still seasonally muted at this point (image courtesy of moyhu): 

[A-L-E-K]

can't believe the burn fossil fuels with wanton abandon strat hasn't worked

welp

[csnavywx]

Actually, looking at GISS records vs moyhu's current temp change from June to July, the gap up for July annual could be similar or even slightly larger than the distance between (current) 1st place and 10th. Remarkable.

[TheClimateChanger]

24 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Actually, looking at GISS records vs moyhu's current temp change from June to July, the gap up for July annual could be similar or even slightly larger than the distance between (current) 1st place and 10th. Remarkable.

Looking at a chart like that, you have to expect some profit taking here at the top. If not, it could be off to the moon.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It very unusual to see such a big jump above the 2nd warmest month during the Northern Hemisphere summer.

 

I'm curious over the nocturnal temperature vs the diurnal maximums in that ownership - globally.  Obviously, over the polar circles that may not be as easy to ascertain, but below 70N/S

We here in New England have noted over the last 10 to 15 years that we haven't seen the extraordinary afternoon oddities. But our lows have been routinely higher and in fact, much of our own contribution to the global warming dial can be shown there.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We here in New England have noted over the last 10 to 15 years that we haven't seen the extraordinary afternoon oddities. But our lows have been routinely higher and in fact, much of our own contribution to the global warming dial can be shown there.

The magnitude of the historic warm minimums this month in Caribou are a good example of that.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.5	4
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	82.4	0
2	1952	82.0	0
3	2023	81.5	4
4	1959	81.4	0
5	2019	80.6	0

[TheClimateChanger]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm curious over the nocturnal temperature vs the diurnal maximums in that ownership - globally.  Obviously, over the polar circles that may not be as easy to ascertain, but below 70N/S

We here in New England have noted over the last 10 to 15 years that we haven't seen the extraordinary afternoon oddities. But our lows have been routinely higher and in fact, much of our own contribution to the global warming dial can be shown there.

There have been incredible afternoon oddities across New England. They've just become normalized. Apparently, unless it's 100 degrees, it's not that hot. Look at BTV - top five highest mean maximum all since 2012, with 2012 being nearly 1.5 degrees higher than the prior record.

Burlington, VT

Similar pattern in Boston, despite being located right on the Harbor - which you would think would be cooler. You know the ol' "cooler by the water" meme?

Boston, MA

This is incredible, extraordinary stuff. There's no other way to characterize this. In any other era, a stretch like this would be headline news every single day. Only our advanced technology is preventing mass crop failures, famine and starvation. In the old days, they would be counting the bodies after heat like today. They called them "prostrations." No doubt our cooling technology has saved countless lives.