Global Average Temperature 2023

[csnavywx]

Mann has been relentlessly hounded by deniers and skeptics for decades at this point. I think that has caused him to be quite conservative and fall back only to the *most* defensible positions. Can't say I blame him.

Doesn't make a great mindset for going out on a limb and making difficult predictions though. I don't know if we're gonna get the Mann of the '90s back. Th one who was willing to take some risk, that is.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:37 PM, csnavywx said:

Oh yes, there's nothing stopping it on a *regional* level, but that's because looking at it regionally essentially means treating it as an open system. Once you go global, it switches to closed. China, EU and US are all in a pretty stiff manufacturing recession (all PMIs are down every month over the last year). China's particularly because they frontran years of industrial production with their real estate bubble, so some reversion to the mean is to be expected. EU because of the war (and their primary energy consumption is down 4.4% y/o/y): 

 

The net however, is probably still going to end up positive (+0.1-0.9%), despite all of the renewable capacity installs and the recessions/stagnation -- and that's because growth shifted elsewhere, in this case India. (+8.5% yoy emissions with 7.8% yoy growth). And there's plenty more where that came from this decade. In addition, we still have growth phases to go through in the rest of the SE Maritime Continent (Vietnam, Indonesia, etc) and most importantly Africa, whose growth rate is just now starting to take off. Pop will double there by mid-century to >2.5B. All of this explosive growth will require some emissions. How much exactly is still up to us, but we will need to press twice as hard as we think we need to to really get this under control before climate damage begins to inflict big losses and strong inflationary pressure.

A wave of baseload installs (standardization and mass production) via nuclear plants could do it. I've oft thought about a program to issue the currency directly to do it (no loans/bonds) and then use some of the proceeds from the plants to retire the currency afterwards. That would cut financing costs out of the equation and standardization would greatly reduce up-front costs. Since it's a gov't project, you wouldn't need to worry about the profit motive nearly so much. And 30-40 extra years of tech improvements would improve safety greatly.

Applying that plan to Africa, much in the same way we do with health, could jumpstart and frontrun emissions increases there too.

Anyways, I'm rambling. I think we greatly underestimate how difficult this is going to be beyond the low-hanging fruit stage, especially if it's the profit motive doing all of the driving. Because despite renewable costs being low, they're also pretty friggin unprofitable under a high inflation/high interest rate regime with massive oversupply. Oil and gas extraction are still massively profitable. A quick check of those markets (and the stocks behind them) shows that in spades the past couple of years, with most solar/wind stocks suffering large drawdowns from their peaks and oil companies are still doing just fine raking in money.

There’s a lot here.

I’m not sure what the circuitry is between climate and inflation .. but, re big losses?

that’s going to happening regardless.

The global industrial population is so large that if 90% adopted green renewable there’d be enough population left still operating in non-compliance to push over thresholds. This recent temperature spiked phenomenon…? This should really actually be a wake up call. It seems to be, but I don’t think people really realize what that means in terms of where this thing could be even 20 years from now. 

Anyway … good luck getting even half of 90% before it’s too late…

(I’m not being heavy-handed at you per se lol I’m just sayin’)

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There’s a lot here.

I’m not sure what the circuitry is between climate and inflation .. but, re big losses?

that’s going to happening regardless.

The global industrial population is so large that if 90% adopted green renewable there’d be enough population left still operating in non-compliance to push over thresholds. This recent temperature spiked phenomenon…? This should really actually be a wake up call. It seems to be, but I don’t think people really realize what that means in terms of where this thing could be even 20 years from now. 

Anyway … good luck getting even half of 90% before it’s too late…

(I’m not being heavy-handed at you per se lol I’m just sayin’)

Yeah, inflation caused by degradation of existing civilizational networks. That increasing damage manifests first as slowing economic growth and slowly climbing global inflation as more of the PCE deflator is used up making up for damage. Nominal GDP might indeed stay high but real GDP gradually declines as net production is undercut.

Ortiz-Bobea et. al. as an example for total factor productivity on agriculture. Most of the slowed growth is in the tropics, but will make its way out to mid-latitudes between now and mid-century: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2007/2007.10415.pdf

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, inflation caused by degradation of existing civilizational networks. That increasing damage manifests first as slowing economic growth and slowly climbing global inflation as more of the PCE deflator is used up making up for damage. Nominal GDP might indeed stay high but real GDP gradually declines as net production is undercut.

Ortiz-Bobea et. al. as an example for total factor productivity on agriculture. Most of the slowed growth is in the tropics, but will make its way out to mid-latitudes between now and mid-century: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2007/2007.10415.pdf

Forgive me, economics isn't my bag.

I get the stressed domestic production - due to CC.  Intuitive enough.   

I guess I was thinking along the lines of, 'the value of the dollar drops while printing more money' as inflation - which really is more of a secondary response ( and really bad approach) to dwindling resources.

I can see how as GDP stressing gets worse, prices go up - that's academic. I think it's what happens as reactionary policies that is the problem.  Ex, the Germans were hung out to dry and left pretty destitute prior to WWII. Political identity was in crisis. GDP didn't really exist. Inflation there resulted, which led to the bad idea of printing more money. There's a lot of geopolitical/geodesic math between that and Hitler's decision to annex Poland ..etc ... but in principle, their society was left in a flight or fight pathway by a destitution both economically, then triggered further by that political identity crisis after WWI. Evil loves that vulnerability.  Ex II, Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan (their "Vietnam").  The U.S. abandoned their supplies to the region when that happen - bop ahead 10 or 20 years and in waltzes the Taliban.  I mean humans do this ...  but I'm digressing.

What I'm getting at is you can see the seeds of global conflict. Interesting.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw -

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-three-day-exceptional-china-linked-human-induced.html

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Forgive me, economics isn't my bag.

I get the stressed domestic production - due to CC.  Intuitive enough.   

I guess I was thinking along the lines of, 'the value of the dollar drops while printing more money' as inflation - which really is more of a secondary response ( and really bad approach) to dwindling resources.

I can see how as GDP stressing gets worse, prices go up - that's academic. I think it's what happens as reactionary policies that is the problem.  Ex, the Germans were hung out to dry and left pretty destitute prior to WWII. Political identity was in crisis. GDP didn't really exist. Inflation there resulted, which led to the bad idea of printing more money. There's a lot of geopolitical/geodesic math between that and Hitler's decision to annex Poland ..etc ... but in principle, their society was left in a flight or fight pathway by a destitution both economically, then triggered further by that political identity crisis after WWI. Evil loves that vulnerability.  Ex II, Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan (their "Vietnam").  The U.S. abandoned their supplies to the region when that happen - bop ahead 10 or 20 years and in waltzes the Taliban.  I mean humans do this ...  but I'm digressing.

What I'm getting at is you can see the seeds of global conflict. Interesting.

Absolutely. Geopolitical risk is probably one of the biggest unhedged risks.

Ironically, the dollar tends to benefit from stress elsewhere. It tends to be weaker countries and currencies that blow up first.

I say global inflation because it's not likely to pop up equally everywhere. That in itself will likely feed back onto geopolitical risk.

[chubbs]

Below is an interesting blog article on how natural variability is impacting this years global temperatures. Bottom-line: this year's nino packs an unusually large punch due to sudden flip from nina to nino and warming across all enso regions. Nice job by a retired engineer.

https://dmn613.wordpress.com/2023/11/20/more-details-on-sep-oct/

[bdgwx]

Here is an article summarizing the Hansen vs Mann debate.

https://theconversation.com/the-disagreement-between-two-climate-scientists-that-will-decide-our-future-217759

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-current-carbon-dioxide-million-years.html

480 ppm is the C02 in the atmosphere of earth at present time, a density not occurring since 14-16 million years ago, a time when "there was no ice on Greenland" 

...you know, it occurs to me while reading this, there is, at present, ice on Greenland.  Here's the catch.  Prior to the 1700's, there was 280 ppm.  In straight terminology, C02 concentration of the atmosphere have essentially doubled since the Industrial Revolution - in geological scale and comparison, that is virtually instantaneous.  300 years compared to an entire epoch? 

Greenland ice.  This last summer's odd global temperature spike.  It may just be that we are terraforming this world, faster than the physical manifestation have had time to catch up.  Compensating larger forces cap rise, and then it surges..etc. We may see the temperature spike more commonly?  Or even, perhaps one cataclysmic afternoon a portion of the land-locked ice cap in fact does what it has been hypothesized: up and slides off into the Atlantic. 

That's a different kind of tsunamis.  That water level wouldn't flow back seaward.  That is the new sea.  I've read that Greenland has enough ice, on land, to raise the global sea level an average of 22 feet.  It wouldn't take the entire 22 feet to cause catastrophic real time affects. 

[chubbs]

On 12/9/2023 at 8:06 AM, bdgwx said:

Here is an article summarizing the Hansen vs Mann debate.

https://theconversation.com/the-disagreement-between-two-climate-scientists-that-will-decide-our-future-217759

Don't agree with views ascribed to either in the article. I don't think Hanson's latest paper is definitive vs all the other ECS literature. While warming has been accelerating recently, most of that can be attributed to increased forcing, due to reductions in aerosols. Also not ready to buy off on geoengineering, until more research is conducted.  However I also don't think net zero is sufficient as Mann advocates. Net zero allows society to put off tough decisions, while we fill the carbon bathtub at a rapid rate. I doubt we will be able and/or willing to remove carbon at scale to make the "net" a reality or to cure "overshoot". Instead think we need to focus more on near-term emission reductions. Also need to develop the policy to support the development of viable non-carbon options for sectors that are lacking good solutions.

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-wildfires-sea-ice-warmest-summer.html

[chubbs]

El Nino comparison chart from Makiko Sato's twitter. The enso regions are warming slower than the rest of the world, so our el ninos aren't what they used to be.

[lookingnorth]

It looks like December 2023 had the fourth greatest positive temperature anomaly of any month in the UAH dataset, with the three hotter months being this past September-November.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

[bdgwx]

7 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

It looks like December 2023 had the fourth greatest positive temperature anomaly of any month in the UAH dataset, with the three hotter months being this past September-November.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

There is a possibility the peak hasn't even been achieved yet. Typically UAH TLT lags ENSO by 3-6 months. If this El Nino behaves like past ones then we would not expect the atmospheric response to peak until at least February 2024.

[bluewave]

2023 came in at 1.48C on ERA5 and 1.43C on JR-55. It will probably take them a while to figure out why this year came in some much warmer than original expectations.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 1/4/2024 at 10:04 PM, lookingnorth said:

It looks like December 2023 had the fourth greatest positive temperature anomaly of any month in the UAH dataset, with the three hotter months being this past September-November.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

Yeah ... See!  it's getting cooler   

[LibertyBell]

On 12/6/2023 at 3:45 PM, csnavywx said:

Mann has been relentlessly hounded by deniers and skeptics for decades at this point. I think that has caused him to be quite conservative and fall back only to the *most* defensible positions. Can't say I blame him.

Doesn't make a great mindset for going out on a limb and making difficult predictions though. I don't know if we're gonna get the Mann of the '90s back. Th one who was willing to take some risk, that is.

It's time to go after the deniers and skeptics and start suing them.  If they are the reason we are seeing so much inaction, it's time for them to be the ones to pay for all the climate disasters we're having.

If it gets them to shut up-- GREAT.  But we can't just allow them to say and do whatever they want.  They need to be silenced.  And before anyone says anything, I don't give a sh1t about the first amendment any more than I do about the second.  Survival is at stake here.

 

[chubbs]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

2023 came in at 1.48C on ERA5 and 1.43C on JR-55. It will probably take them a while to figure out why this year came in some much warmer than original expectations.

 

 

Neither come out and say it, but one source of error in the predictions at the beginning of 2023 was the rapid shift to strong el nino. Will make following this year more interesting. If the predictions for 2024 are good then we can probably give el nino or natural variability most of the blame since the other factors are still in play (Hunga-Tonga, shipping and other aerosols, high climate sensitivity).

[chubbs]

2024 in unchartered SST territory out of the gate.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, chubbs said:

Neither come out and say it, but one source of error in the predictions at the beginning of 2023 was the rapid shift to strong el nino. Will make following this year more interesting. If the predictions for 2024 are good then we can probably give el nino or natural variability most of the blame since the other factors are still in play (Hunga-Tonga, shipping and other aerosols, high climate sensitivity).

The global temperature spike occurred earlier than usual with this El Niño for some reason. The big annual temperature jump usually occurs following the fall and winter like in 2016 and 1998. This one began in 2023 instead of 2024. Perhaps it was related to how long the La Niña lasted. None of our other El Niños near this magnitude had such a strong 3 year La Niña and -PDO before them. 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The global temperature spike occurred earlier than usual with this El Niño for some reason. The big annual temperature jump usually occurs following the fall and winter like in 2016 and 1998. This one began in 2023 instead of 2024. Perhaps it was related to how long the La Niña lasted. None of our other El Niños near this magnitude had such a strong 3 year La Niña and -PDO before them. 

The 3-year nina was probably also a factor. The 2023 projections were based on the weak nina conditions that existed in the 34 region at the start of the year and 2022 temps (in Hausfather's method - Schmidt uses a 20-year Loess) which were held down by the 3-year nina. The rapid onset of east-based nino flipped the script. Large areas in the EPac went from cool which favors inversions and low clouds to warm which favors mixing and sunshine. There are other factors also. Like you say will take a while to unpack.

2022  10   19.23   -1.78   23.88   -1.11   27.64   -1.12   25.73   -0.99
2022  11   20.52   -1.13   24.16   -0.94   27.71   -0.99   25.80   -0.90
2022  12   22.35   -0.46   24.41   -0.82   27.70   -0.84   25.75   -0.85
2023   1   24.00   -0.56   25.10   -0.56   27.66   -0.66   25.83   -0.72
2023   2   26.58    0.48   26.31   -0.10   27.65   -0.55   26.29   -0.46
2023   3   27.98    1.49   27.50    0.30   28.07   -0.25   27.17   -0.11
2023   4   28.16    2.62   28.05    0.47   28.75    0.13   27.96    0.14
2023   5   26.64    2.22   28.09    0.84   29.22    0.30   28.39    0.46
2023   6   25.63    2.50   27.88    1.26   29.55    0.58   28.57    0.84

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2024 at 6:54 AM, bluewave said:

The global temperature spike occurred earlier than usual with this El Niño for some reason. The big annual temperature jump usually occurs following the fall and winter like in 2016 and 1998. This one began in 2023 instead of 2024. Perhaps it was related to how long the La Niña lasted. None of our other El Niños near this magnitude had such a strong 3 year La Niña and -PDO before them. 

I'm curious to see where we go from here with a la nina on the horizon for next year.

[bdgwx]

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/

 

[bdgwx]

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152313/five-factors-to-explain-the-record-heat-in-2023

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Fun article ( in a not so ha-ha way) below.  Tfwiw -

"2023's record heat partly driven by 'mystery' process: NASA scientist"

"...It wasn't just a record. It was a record that broke the previous record by a record margin...." 

It does beg for a deeper causality explanation than can really be offered given the present day manifold of scientific knowledge.  Personally I'm inclined to think this "emergent property" we just witnessed is no different than what happens in every complex physical system that exists inside the realm of universal reality.  The more complex the system, there more potential there is for "unintended consequences" - they spontaneously emerge as non linearity (byproduct forces that only exist because two or more linear forces are interacting) becomes sufficiently large enough to abruptly accelerate an observable expression in the field.  Because of their erstwhile inherently elusive existence, that bursting forth seems to come from nowhere.  

The possibility of unintended consequence, or emergent properties is well enough hinted in Schmidt's later omission, "...It may be that El Niño is enough. But if I look at all of the other El Ninos that we've had, none of them did this. So either this El Niño is really super special, or the atmosphere is responding to this El Niño in a very special way. Or there's something else going on. And nobody has yet really narrowed these possibilities..."

Heh... come to wonder, a primordial less evolved human mind might even think of it as God-like.  

https://phys.org/news/2024-01-driven-mystery-nasa-scientist.html

[csnavywx]

'tis alright. Given the hard IOD collapse, we've likely got a moderate-strong backlash Nina coming that should help test the lower bound of global temps. Though, I've noticed the mid-lats didn't really cool down all the way, despite the strong/super Nino, so they might still remain elevated.

[bluewave]

On 1/8/2024 at 6:54 AM, bluewave said:

The global temperature spike occurred earlier than usual with this El Niño for some reason. The big annual temperature jump usually occurs following the fall and winter like in 2016 and 1998. This one began in 2023 instead of 2024. Perhaps it was related to how long the La Niña lasted. None of our other El Niños near this magnitude had such a strong 3 year La Niña and -PDO before them. 

 

 

[chubbs]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

 If you look at all the enso regions, this year doesn't look as unusual and enso can explain more of the warming. Charts from blog article I posted above, that looked at temperatures through October. Nice job by an amateur.

https://dmn613.wordpress.com/2023/11/20/more-details-on-sep-oct/

 

[bdgwx]

Back in June I predicted 1.05 ± 0.09 C for the annual mean reported by GISTEMP. They actually reported 1.17 C. My model, like everyone else's, failed badly this year.