June/July 2023 Severe Discussion

[nwohweather]

On 6/24/2023 at 4:51 PM, Chinook said:

I always wished to be able to do this- take a pic of a great storm cell from a jet. I haven't flown across the country in the spring/summer very much. I did see a MCS/anvil with a storm one time, from about 10 miles+, in a jet.

 

The turbulence off them is never fun though 

[nwohweather]

Way too much CIN for this bottle rocket to take off today 

[Quincy]

Here we go again…

A pattern characterized by an extended period of seasonably strong upper level flow is anticipated across the central U.S. much of this week, along with SLGT risk convective outlooks each day, through Day 5. If ensemble data is correct, the pattern could linger into next week. 

It looks more like an early to mid-June pattern… as this odd severe weather season continues. One analog even compared this setup to late May 1996, as a suppressed ridge across the Texas vicinity allows somewhat anomalous flow to coincide with favorable moisture/instability from eastern Colorado into Kansas and surrounding areas. 

Details are to be ironed out, but the High Plains, including parts of the Southern High Plains, toward the Central Plains will likely see isolated to scattered severe storms each day this week.

The thread has been generalized to cover June and July, as the pattern reloads for the foreseeable future…

[Powerball]

12 hours ago, Quincy said:

Here we go again…

A pattern characterized by an extended period of seasonably strong upper level flow is anticipated across the central U.S. much of this week, along with SLGT risk convective outlooks each day, through Day 5. If ensemble data is correct, the pattern could linger into next week. 

It looks more like an early to mid-June pattern… as this odd severe weather season continues. One analog even compared this setup to late May 1996, as a suppressed ridge across the Texas vicinity allows somewhat anomalous flow to coincide with favorable moisture/instability from eastern Colorado into Kansas and surrounding areas. 

Details are to be ironed out, but the High Plains, including parts of the Southern High Plains, toward the Central Plains will likely see isolated to scattered severe storms each day this week.

The thread has been generalized to cover June and July, as the pattern reloads for the foreseeable future…

Everything you've explained in your post is also why I remaim extremely skeptical about the extent of extreme heat that models are currently projecting for Dallas over the next few weeks (Houston, San Antonio and Austin, however, should continue to bake).

[Quincy]

Expansive slight risk today with SPC delineating an enhanced risk area across parts of eastern Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska. 

Glancing influence from a 40-50 knot jet pivoting east across the north-central states will coincide with a sagging frontal boundary to kick off scattered to numerous thunderstorms later today.

Storm modes should be messy with deep shear vectors nearly parallel to the front, although large instability and some backing of lower level winds may result in a few initial supercells across Nebraska. 

A somewhat greater supercell risk may evolve farther NW across northern Colorado and Wyoming, in a post-frontal regime. Here, while instability may be less robust, stronger deep layer wind fields should yield elongated hodographs. The environment will be conditionally favorable to support a longer lived supercell or two, IF any dominant storm can remain at least somewhat isolated.

Overall storm evolution favors clustering and upscale growth, hence the enhanced risk for an increasing wind damage threat this evening. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Expansive slight risk today with SPC delineating an enhanced risk area across parts of eastern Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska. 

Glancing influence from a 40-50 knot jet pivoting east across the north-central states will coincide with a sagging frontal boundary to kick off scattered to numerous thunderstorms later today.

Storm modes should be messy with deep shear vectors nearly parallel to the front, although large instability and some backing of lower level winds may result in a few initial supercells across Nebraska. 

A somewhat greater supercell risk may evolve farther NW across northern Colorado and Wyoming, in a post-frontal regime. Here, while instability may be less robust, stronger deep layer wind fields should yield elongated hodographs. The environment will be conditionally favorable to support a longer lived supercell or two, IF any dominant storm can remain at least somewhat isolated.

Overall storm evolution favors clustering and upscale growth, hence the enhanced risk for an increasing wind damage threat this evening. 

Was looking forward to one of your posts. I’m in Nebraska now but have been leaning toward that NE CO zone for later. I agree that much of this becomes messy later this evening, but a supercell on the front range would be a win today. 

[Quincy]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was looking forward to one of your posts. I’m in Nebraska now but have been leaning toward that NE CO zone for later. I agree that much of this becomes messy later this evening, but a supercell on the front range would be a win today. 

Stayed in Salina last night, my original plan was to go into Nebraska, but whatever happens will go HP fast and Colorado puts tomorrow’s target into closer range. I do think there’s a window for something in Nebraska, but given High Plains vs. lower elevations to the east, I’ll almost always favor the western target. 

[WxWatcher007]

By my east coast standards lol, yesterday was fantastic. Thinking today may also be a solid day in CO or northern NM with more isolated storms and good shear. 

[Quincy]

Chased northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday. A very similar chase to June 22nd. 

SPC is very aggressive with the latest day 1 outlook. 10% tornado probabilities across southeastern Colorado. CAMs show no convective initiation prior to dark, but the parameter space does look pretty impressive. We’ll have to see what happens in the wake of ongoing convection through this morning. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, Quincy said:

Chased northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday. A very similar chase to June 22nd. 

SPC is very aggressive with the latest day 1 outlook. 10% tornado probabilities across southeastern Colorado. CAMs show no convective initiation prior to dark, but the parameter space does look pretty impressive. We’ll have to see what happens in the wake of ongoing convection through this morning. 

Wow—those are awesome! With the limited road network…and driver fatigue…I stayed near Colorado Springs and ended up leaving just before things got active lol. 

It’s certainly an interesting (and wide) split between the SPC/LFO and the CAMs today. Hard for me to believe SE CO will be that capped but we’ll see what kind of recovery we get after the morning storms, which have pushed east for the most part via early visible and IR.

Looking at just planting in that highway 50 corridor and being patient. Even one long track supercell could put this trip over the top for me, but want to make sure I stay in proper position should we actually get late afternoon/early evening activity. We’ll see.

Best of luck out there today.

[Quincy]

Complex setup across much of the High Plains today. A residual boundary from earlier storms has chewed away at some of the environment across east-central Colorado. Approaching belt of enhanced upper level flow looks promising, but height tendencies are near-neutral, particularly south of the Denver convergence zone.

In atypical Colorado fashion, most convective initiation will probably be delayed until close to 00z. If the timing is just right, air mass recovery suggests an environment highly favorable for supercells across much of eastern Colorado. I remain a bit skeptical, for storm chasing purposes. 

 

[andyhb]

On 6/24/2023 at 9:11 PM, andyhb said:

I have... thoughts about this, but it's probably not worth getting into a long debate about again. All I'll say is that if this tornado is rated the same as the Cole OK or Lake City IL EF3s earlier this year, that is a pretty damning indicator of the flaws of the EF-scale and how it is applied.

No seriously, what a fucking terrible survey that was after learning more about it. Especially compared to the one from the Didsbury AB tornado from 7/1.

[Chinook]

The big storms of the night are probably getting going right now around Hugo, Colorado. Effective wind shear is pretty nuts right now.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

The big storms of the night are probably getting going right now around Hugo, Colorado. Effective wind shear is pretty nuts right now.

Baseball to softball sized hail at night

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Baseball to softball sized hail at night

It’s not as picturesque, but it was something to behold from convective initiation to when it became a monster. I have some other pics on different cameras and hopefully one of them has a funnel. 

 

[Quincy]

A last minute chase and the road network was pretty bad, so not much to show for it. This was the backside of the storm that went on to produce softball sized hail:

I saw a few golf ball to tennis ball sized hailstones, but with no radar/cell data and a limited, questionable dirt road network, I wasn’t getting any closer. 

The storms initially deviated well south of model guidance, but then shifted back SE as winds veered a bit.

There is an outflow boundary draped across the OK/TX panhandles. Due to the SW displacement, it seems like the best wind profiles may be slightly NE of where convective initiation is most likely later on. CAMs generally show storms clustering or growing upscale prior to reaching the area with larger hodograph curvature. Still, depending on storm evolution, there may be a window for a surface based supercell or two later on around the TX panhandle vicinity. Other isolated supercells are possible across eastern CO again, but longevity and intensity are uncertain. 

[Chinook]

16 hours ago, yoda said:

Baseball to softball sized hail at night

it makes you wonder about the human impact. The storm tracked through Karval (almost), Haswell, Wiley and Lamar. I wonder who was outside their homes or walking outside at 8PM-10PM in those places. Or, what livestock might have gotten injured.

[WxWatcher007]

A few more from the Lamar supercell yesterday 

 

 

[Quincy]

Scattered supercells expected today across multiple regimes from eastern Wyoming, into the Nebraska panhandle and eastern Colorado. Can’t remember a year in recent memory with so many frequent supercells and large/very large hail producing storms. 

[Powerball]

Forecast temps may just bust today.

Getting a nice garden variety t'storm this morning on the tail end of what's left of that MCS that tracked through NE / KS / OK. It's been raining cats & dogs for at least a good 30 minutes. Even got a decent pop of wind ahead of it (nothing severe, but a stiff breeze).

As is typical with these ridge riders, it ended up tracking further SW than models projected.

Something possessed FWD to issue a heat advisory yesterday evening for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. That obviously ain't happening todah (not even certain 90s will happen) and has been cancelled.

[Quincy]

A belt of enhanced flow looks to affect much of the Central Plains through the rest of this week. Expect daily severe weather threats during the afternoon/early evenings with MCS potential bringing bouts of heavier rains to parts of Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas and possibly even into Oklahoma. 

No particular day stands out as a higher-end severe event, but isolated to scattered supercell potential continues for the foreseeable future.

[Quincy]

Chased a few HP supercells in northeastern Nebraska today. Supercell potential ramps up more over the next few days…

 

[Quincy]

Two target areas today for late-day supercell thunderstorm potential: Near a surface low/warm front across the Northern High Plains and a more conditional threat near a remnant outflow boundary near the NE/SD border area. 

 

[MNstorms]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight risk added to Minnesota and Dakotas for tomorrow. Might be the best chance of the year to actually get a storm for me. Still sitting at 0s.

[Quincy]

Lower 70s dew points across parts of eastern Colorado now. Convective initiation is underway just north of Flagler. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few tornadoes given anomalously rich moisture on the High Plains, backed low level flow and extreme instability in place. (>4000 J/kg SBCAPE)

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Quincy said:

Lower 70s dew points across parts of eastern Colorado now. Convective initiation is underway just north of Flagler. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few tornadoes given anomalously rich moisture on the High Plains, backed low level flow and extreme instability in place. (>4000 J/kg SBCAPE)

 

It's interesting; if I'm not mistaken 1994 was considered a possible analog to this year; it likewise featured a very slow "traditional" severe weather season of May through mid-June in the Plains, followed by an anomalous "post-season" uptick in activity that continued well into the summer. Meanwhile the Midwest has brought two of the best regional tornado chases of my life in 3/31 and 7/12, but with scarcely a rumble of thunder (or drop of rain) in between.

[yoda]

Yikes if you are on i40 right now in NM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
629 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central San Miguel County in northeastern New Mexico...
  Western Quay County in east central New Mexico...
  Northeastern Guadalupe County in east central New Mexico...

* Until 730 PM MDT.

* At 628 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 11 miles southeast of Watrous to 8 miles west of
  Variadero, moving south at 15 mph.

  THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS APPROACHING I-40 FROM THE NORTH.

  HAZARD...Three inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Santa Rosa, Montoya, Colonias, Variadero, Maes, Newkirk, Santa Rosa
  Lake State Park, Cuervo, Trujillo and Trementina.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 265 and 314.
 State Road 104 between Mile Markers 15 and 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows.

Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water
crossings. Do not attempt to drive through areas where water covers
the roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 10484 3490 10431 3511 10402 3563 10441
      3578 10460 3567 10497
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 338DEG 11KT 3565 10488 3541 10462

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...3.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

[MNstorms]

Tonight looks decent, at least the best chance for myself this season. More CAPE then one could ever ask for. Probably a step under a derecho. I thought an enhanced risk would be issued on the last update.

[Quincy]

Had a one off, Hail Mary chase trip to south Dakota today and caught an intense, long-lived supercell. It spawned multiple tornado warnings, but the main stories were hail and prolific lightning production. 

 

[MNstorms]

Warned for 80mph winds. 75mph observed.