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June/July 2023 Severe Discussion


Quincy
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People went full Jonesboro again. Hills blocked their view and called a lowering a tornado. I've been watching a stream that was close up and they had nothing.

Edit. Proof before I get told off. A chaser with a similar view to Freddy's deleted their tweet and called this a tornado.

 

A couple minutes later pass the hills.

 

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:yikes:

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

NEC123-157-165-240200-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-230624T0200Z/
Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE-
746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Gering and Scottsbluff!...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN
SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX
COUNTIES...

At 745 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
7 miles south of Gering, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Gering and Scottsbluff!. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Minatare around 750 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 10366 4192 10378 4201 10359 4200 10342
      4190 10336 4181 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 28KT 4188 10359

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN
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14 minutes ago, MNstorms said:

People went full Jonesboro again. Hills blocked their view and called a lowering a tornado. I've been watching a stream that was close up and they had nothing.

Edit. Proof before I get told off. A chaser with a similar view to Freddy's deleted their tweet and called this a tornado.

 

A couple minutes later pass the hills.

 

Piotrowski just tweeted there was a tornado crossing Highway 92

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Significant tornado appears to have impacted the North Antelope Coal Mine near Wright WY earlier with the long-lived supercell that moved through central and NE WY. Appears there are people missing and heavy damage including a train derailment.

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That is really sad to see. It seemed like a mostly rural area and the warning echoed that, but obviously there was some unfortunate destruction. 

I’m processing a 15 minute wide angle video of the tornado. Not only was it a slow mover, but the motion was really erratic. I’ll share when it’s up. 

It was a great chase, but it’s ever great to see damage like that. 

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More video clips from yesterday’s tornado:

Complex setup is evolving today across the Missouri Valley/Midwest. A locally higher tornado threat may exist across parts of central Iowa, but complex storm modes and storm mergers may limit the extent of the threat. Still, enlarged hodographs near an outflow boundary and rich moisture advecting northeast into southwestern Iowa could conditionally support a strong tornado later this afternoon. 

 

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Didn't 6 tornadoes occur in the movie Twister? Hmm. Oh well, the reality is these guys had a chase of a lifetime.

 

large tornado by storm chaser.jpg

Depends on what you count as an independent tornado. You had the four main tornado sequences then the instance with the three waterspouts in the "We got cows!" scene, then if you count each one on the "Tornado Hill" sequence as a separate tornado then you got close to 11-12 tornadoes in the film which IIRC was what most happened to see on the 2016 Dodge City day.

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1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said:

Depends on what you count as an independent tornado. You had the four main tornado sequences then the instance with the three waterspouts in the "We got cows!" scene, then if you count each one on the "Tornado Hill" sequence as a separate tornado then you got close to 11-12 tornadoes in the film which IIRC was what most happened to see on the 2016 Dodge City day.

If I remember correctly, Twister the movie never showed the correct supercell structure like wall clouds, or clear slot, rear flank downdraft shelf, etc.

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

Hmmm

I have... thoughts about this, but it's probably not worth getting into a long debate about again. All I'll say is that if this tornado is rated the same as the Cole OK or Lake City IL EF3s earlier this year, that is a pretty damning indicator of the flaws of the EF-scale and how it is applied.

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It's always interesting to see how "not much will happen" turns in to "moderate risk" when the hour gets closer. Maybe Sunday should have been moderate risk for some areas. Dew points in NW Oklahoma are now about 70, making for a SBCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg expected in front of storms in the moderate risk. Some initial severe storms are ongoing now.

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It's possible we could have a leading supercell with a tornado threat. West of that there could be multicell group, which could be the wind threat (derecho-ish) that is expected though the next few hours, along with some possibility of large hail and tornadoes.

 

refcmp_uh001h.us_c.png

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Here's a thing I don't use very much. COD satellite zoom-in with overlay of analysis (CAPE in this case). New storms approaching 3000 J/kg

CAPE and satellite.jpg


I just discovered that feature myself within the last couple of weeks. Really sweet. You can set the overlays how you want and bookmark the page and return to it quickly.

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Tornado warning, and a supercell at Hooker, Oklahoma, is ahead of a line or multicells. So the HRRR had some accuracy on that particular idea. It's actually pretty amazing that the convective mode can be predicted well sometimes.

other note; run a COD 96-frame or 200-frame satellite loop and overlay 500mb over the longwave IR or water vapor IR channel. It's inspiring.

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