June/July 2023 Severe Discussion

[Chinook]

possible large tornado with maybe 98mph winds detected above ground (5800 ft above radar level)

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

 

[Quincy]

4 hours ago, Chinook said:

I vote this as best mothership of all time

Well thank you, but not even sure that’s my best. Probably my favorite from this year though. The Northern Plains storms are something else, especially with the open country and relative lack of other chasers.

The northeastern Colorado tornado-fest makes sense in hindsight, while most of us were blinded by the potential for more discrete activity in southeastern Wyoming. 

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

 

I made one post about that in Mountain West. Either that or it was a double tornado that I did not see on radar!

[Chinook]

Near Lubbock, confirmed tornado

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN MOTLEY COUNTIES...
    
At 818 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles southeast of 
Matador, moving southeast at 20 mph.  Structure damage has been 
reported in the City of Matador.  The tornadic circulation continues 
over rural portions of Motley county east of Roaring Springs.

 

[andyhb]

Trees absolutely shredded and vehicles mangled near Matador, this may have been a violent tornado.

[andyhb]

Fatality confirmed in Matador per Val Castor's stream.

[Chinook]

HRRR proximity sounding near the cell near Lubbock shows incredibly large SCP, STP, precipitable water

[CryHavoc]

Absolutely catastrophic damage on the News 9 stream right now. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Almost 3 hours no power, but then again, Houston has a third world power grid.

 

[andyhb]

3 dead in Matador TX per New York Times and the town's mayor. That's now the second multi-fatality tornado in W TX this month.

[CryHavoc]

6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

3 dead in Matador TX per New York Times and the town's mayor. That's now the second multi-fatality tornado in W TX this month.

S&R is still ongoing as well.

[andyhb]

Meanwhile the Akron CO cyclic supercell from earlier is the storm of the year and perhaps decade so far in terms of photogenic tornadoes. Unbelievable video.

[Normandy]

That's wild!  Would those be considered separate tornadoes or multi-vortex?  Kind of blurs the line at times.  Thanks for sharing.

[Powerball]

9 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Almost 3 hours no power, but then again, Houston has a third world power grid.

 

Per SPC, there were two reports of a 97 MPH wind and a 82 MPH wind gust reported in Harris County.

[thunderbird12]

Up to 2" Hail at the Red Rocks concert venue in CO last night resulted in 90+ injuries and 7 transported to a hospital, per a recent BOU LSR and recent media reports. Definitely some high-impact storms yesterday. Tough luck to have two Panhandle/west Texas towns take a direct hit from a big tornado in one week. 

Tough day for the CAM guidance yesterday, especially across Texas. As alluded to in the tweet above, there was some signal for the Houston area eventually getting hit, but I don't think any model came close to getting the timing or evolution of those storms right. Several HRRR runs did a good job yesterday showing the potential for an intense supercell cluster across the Panhandle and South Plains area...until it completely gave up on that scenario a few hours before the event began. Weakly forced scenarios with huge CAPE are always going to be a challenge. 

 

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, thunderbird12 said:

Up to 2" Hail at the Red Rocks concert venue in CO last night resulted in 90+ injuries and 7 transported to a hospital, per a recent BOU LSR and recent media reports. Definitely some high-impact storms yesterday. Tough luck to have two Panhandle/west Texas towns take a direct hit from a big tornado in one week. 

Tough day for the CAM guidance yesterday, especially across Texas. As alluded to in the tweet above, there was some signal for the Houston area eventually getting hit, but I don't think any model came close to getting the timing or evolution of those storms right. Several HRRR runs did a good job yesterday showing the potential for an intense supercell cluster across the Panhandle and South Plains area...until it completely gave up on that scenario a few hours before the event began. Weakly forced scenarios with huge CAPE are always going to be a challenge. 

 

Hi-Res models did loosely hint at the possibility, but they were struggling with gauging the strength of the cap. That said, the cold pool / outflow boundary from the MCS across KS / OK Wednesday morning was just enough of a trigger to weaken it.

Had there been a bit stronger forcing / shear, it might have been a repeat of 6/9/19.

[andyhb]

Now 4 deaths in Matador. Helicopter video from this morning shows a very intense damage path. Essentially all of the structures that were in the core of the damage path were leveled or swept away. Ground scouring present, major tree damage, and vehicles that look like they've been moved long distances and mangled.

Pretty confident that there's EF4 damage in there somewhere.

https://www.facebook.com/dustin.johnson.14811/videos/1763160690810064/?mibextid=jf9HGS

[nwohweather]

13 hours ago, andyhb said:

Meanwhile the Akron CO cyclic supercell from earlier is the storm of the year and perhaps decade so far in terms of photogenic tornadoes. Unbelievable video.

Amazing to see. I think as well it's good for people to see just how volatile a mesocyclone is, especially a violent one like this. Too many people want to "zero meter" anymore and this is why a safe distance & precip free view is so key

[Quincy]

When you get 70 dew points to the Caprock, big/bad things can happen. 

Today’s High Plains environment looks slightly less volatile, along with slightly less juiced moisture. With that said, several modified boundaries could be the focus for widely scattered supercell development this afternoon and evening. 

 

[mob1]

PDS warning with this 

[mayjawintastawm]

15 minutes ago, mob1 said:

PDS warning with this 

That's just south of my house. We are about where the L in Centennial is on that screenshot. I'm at work now but hairy indeed. That area is basically a big suburb nested within a high-tech megaplex with multiple malls, etc.

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, mayjawintastawm said:

That's just south of my house. I'm at work now but hairy indeed. That area is basically a big suburb nested within a high-tech megaplex with multiple malls, etc.

There's a pretty insane hail core with that storm as well. Wild couple of days for CO. 

[andyhb]

Damage reported in Highlands Ranch via Aaron Rigsby.

[Quincy]

I stayed away from the Denver hail and tornado, favored more discrete supercell development in northeastern New Mexico:

 

[mob1]

Very strong couplet embedded in the line NE of Riverton WY. 

[Quincy]

Multiple tornado warnings at the moment across central Wyoming. A tornado watch is in effect for parts of eastern Wyoming and vicinity. 

Other storms will be possible up and down the High Plains, immediately ahead of a dryline. Storms could interact with an outflow boundary near the Texas panhandle and convective initiation is also underway on the nose of a dryline bulge in southeastern Colorado. 

Tomorrow may be the final day for a bit with relatively widespread severe potential across the sub forum, as a shortwave ejects east across the Dakotas. Details are unclear, but the severe potential seems to be focused on Iowa and surrounding areas. 

 

[andyhb]

https://www.facebook.com/tim.marshall.505/posts/pfbid02RJKCvrhXebooqJXuRpa5FchsPcWhtV4aS8GbgJS1gXVdyNGf1wCFNCZrZuVpsopl
 

This damage in Matador is crazy.

[andyhb]

Large tornado in progress south of Midwest WY (north of Casper).

Likely significant.

[Chinook]

this tornado was teported north of Casper at 5:30 eastern (as seen above) - a long way from the Riverton radar but still the radar picks up a lot of detail. The rotation went over I-25 south of Midwest