Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 There have been many hail reports in some areas of North Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 Chased the Texas panhandle supercell until it started accelerating and producing grapefruit hail. Debating on chasing tomorrow (Wednesday), but the lack of a LLJ makes we question life decisions if I go into the woods to “chase” big hailers. Such a shame that we’ll have huge buoyancy and crazy shear for this time of year. Some high res progs show a 75 knot 500mb jet streak across AR/MS. Just ridiculous. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 Absurd environment in place across the Louisiana/Mississippi vicinity this morning, for June standards. Strong west-northwesterly flow atop 70s dew points with the 12z JAN / Jackson, MS sounding sampling 72 knots of effective shear. SPC has expanded the moderate risk outlook to cover areas from northeastern Louisiana to southwestern Georgia. Great discussion and also highlights the uncertainty. Just because the parameter space appears volatile, doesn’t mean there’s going to be an outbreak. However, model guidance suggests at least isolated intense supercells and the ceiling is quite high. We’ll see how it comes together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Just insane lapse rates, I don't think I've ever seen them this high in the Southeast. Add in that it's mid June and holy smokes this is anomalous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 I didn't realize how unprecedented tornado outbreaks were in June for Dixie alley. No part of that region has ever gotten a 10% risk (going back to 2006): 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Quincy said: Absurd environment in place across the Louisiana/Mississippi vicinity this morning, for June standards. Strong west-northwesterly flow atop 70s dew points with the 12z JAN / Jackson, MS sounding sampling 72 knots of effective shear. Loving the new SPC sounding climo page. Check out how anomalous the observed shear was at Little Rock this morning: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: Just insane lapse rates, I don't think I've ever seen them this high in the Southeast. Add in that it's mid June and holy smokes this is anomalous 8.4C/km at New Orleans this morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Tornado Watch just went up for a good portion of Alabama 60/30 tor probs, 80/70 wind, 70/60 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northern Alabama * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to form through the afternoon across central Alabama, and an additional storm cluster will move east-southeastward from northern Mississippi. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, including very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, damaging outflow gusts up to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 10 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Thompson https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0291.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Robust hooks already showing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 8.4C/km at New Orleans this morning: Wild to see. Living in the SE for a few years it was nuts to see the vertical look of the pop up storms compared to what we have the in the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Robust hooks already showing on radar.Overcrowding looks like it may keep a lid on todays activity. Good setup but if everything is firing then they’re all fighting for the same instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 A mid-south PDS severe watch in June is not often on the bingo card but here it is: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Reed getting the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 tornado reported at Ashburn Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 DFW is in the new watch. MCD is interesting. Mesoscale Discussion 1046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142029Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX, afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells. Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage, some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: DFW is in the new watch. MCD is interesting. Mesoscale Discussion 1046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142029Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX, afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells. Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage, some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon. Seeing the position of the outflow boundary, it's setting up to be a repeat of yesterday with respect to storm location / coverage. For everyone else in North Texas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 I haven't seen this level of shear in June in the southeast states, and also apparently the 10% SPC tornado contour just simply hasn't been issued this far south for a very long time, possibly Triple supercells, two tornado warnings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 I will say though, for posterity, the parameter right over downtown Dallas are insane. I don't think I've ever see a Craven-Brooks signature of 160K... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 I hadn't seen 80 kt of effective shear at any time in June except for Nebraska a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 When you get the jet so far south in June… is when you get a northerly wind on the “cool” side of an outflow boundary with 5000+ CAPE and mid-70s dews. (DFW area) Towers are attempting to go up near that boundary. Will be interesting to see if any updrafts can become sustained, given the conditionally volatile environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Interestingly enough, although we've been sleeping on it, tomorrow is looking even more ominous for all of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma (including better tornadon potential), although capping might be a bit stronger and the flow (albeit still impressive) is a bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 30 minutes ago, Quincy said: When you get the jet so far south in June… is when you get a northerly wind on the “cool” side of an outflow boundary with 5000+ CAPE and mid-70s dews. (DFW area) Towers are attempting to go up near that boundary. Will be interesting to see if any updrafts can become sustained, given the conditionally volatile environment. It seems that two have so far. Both severe warned. Ping pongs and quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 possible tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Extreme hail report at this area in Alabama: 4" (report is at Doerun, which is right in the middle of the image) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Interestingly enough, although we've been sleeping on it, tomorrow is looking even more ominous for all of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma (including better tornadon potential), although capping might be a bit stronger and the flow (albeit still impressive) is a bit weaker What might be a good target area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: It seems that two have so far. Both severe warned. Ping pongs and quarters. Now up to baseball and half dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Never seen the bolded in a warning before BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cleveland County in southeastern Arkansas... Northeastern Clark County in southwestern Arkansas... Grant County in central Arkansas... Northeastern Dallas County in southwestern Arkansas... Southeastern Garland County in central Arkansas... Southeastern Saline County in central Arkansas... Hot Spring County in southwestern Arkansas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 625 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rockport, or over Malvern, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR THE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING POLYGON, FALLING HAIL CAN BE DEADLY; TAKE COVER NOW! THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS! . HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Benton... Hot Springs Village... Malvern... Sheridan... Haskell... Rockport... Traskwood... Leola... Tull... Carthage... Prattsville... Poyen... Perla... Lonsdale... Cane Creek... Jenkins Ferry State Park... Orion... Thiel... Dogwood... Donaldson... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3423 9307 3463 9291 3448 9221 3395 9244 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 280DEG 34KT 3439 9284 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 21 minutes ago, Chinook said: Extreme hail report at this area in Alabama: 4" (report is at Doerun, which is right in the middle of the image) There's a report of 5"+ hail from earlier this afternoon in MS in the SPC database Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: There's a report of 5"+ hail from earlier this afternoon in MS in the SPC database and last night in the eastern Texas panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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