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June/July 2023 Severe Discussion


Quincy
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Here is some high 0-6km shear in mid-June again. It's absurd. It's hard to get the 60 kt shear values for a lot of the year, and harder in the summer months. The storms in north Oklahoma have transitioned to producing an impressive squall/bow echo.

2023_06_18_02z_shear_and_radar.jpg

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Here is some high 0-6km shear in mid-June again. It's absurd. It's hard to get the 60 kt shear values for a lot of the year, and harder in the summer months. The storms in north Oklahoma have transitioned to producing an impressive squall/bow echo.
2023_06_18_02z_shear_and_radar.thumb.jpg.c4f86e4ad7436ba0fca561343d2a01f8.jpg

Gonna be a lot of power outages shortly in OKC. RadarScope shows a large swath of 75-90 mph winds aloft. If that can mix down…
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77 mph gust at Tulsa International Airport. I know the bow looked impressive (was showing 120+ mph velocities at 1.6kft AGL), but I’m a little suspect of that 100 mph spotter report. Sure it’s possible, but perfectly rounded and no context, like station height, estimate vs. recorded, etc.

Anyway, two MCSs continue across the Mid-South vicinity from the overnight activity. There could be some renewed severe threat in their wakes, assuming adequate airmass recovery. 

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The 00z JAN sounding signifies a once in a generation type of setup for meteorological summer. (I do realize it’s not a prominent EML, but still, yet another absurd sounding for June). 

The last time we had a June pattern like this was 1998. Before that, you have to go back to the 70s. 

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6 hours ago, Quincy said:

The 00z JAN sounding signifies a once in a generation type of setup for meteorological summer. (I do realize it’s not a prominent EML, but still, yet another absurd sounding for June). 

The last time we had a June pattern like this was 1998. Before that, you have to go back to the 70s. 

If only it could have been from like I-70 in Kansas on northward. I suppose I could have chased Texas last week and maybe seen some decent stuff (or maybe destroyed my wife's 2021 Hyundai Santa Fe with hail), but I really didn't want to go that far and had my doubts that far south would actually produce this time of year. If it was a month earlier, it would have been a no-brainer.

 

I guess Keota will have to tide me over until next year, barring a major and unforeseen summer pattern change for the Midwest. In previous years, I didn't even have anything like that.

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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

If only it could have been from like I-70 in Kansas on northward. I suppose I could have chased Texas last week and maybe seen some decent stuff (or maybe destroyed my wife's 2021 Hyundai Santa Fe with hail), but I really didn't want to go that far and had my doubts that far south would actually produce this time of year. If it was a month earlier, it would have been a no-brainer.

 

I guess Keota will have to tide me over until next year, barring a major and unforeseen summer pattern change for the Midwest. In previous years, I didn't even have anything like that.

It’s been a tough season for Kansas and Nebraska. I’ve been chasing quite a bit this year, but only a few select events in Kansas. Barely in Nebraska at all, only a couple of the far southwest counties, briefly.

Hoping for some Northern Plains action today and tomorrow. Today could feature a supercell or two in eastern Montana. Tomorrow looks like quick-to-linear over the Dakotas.

Beyond that, the pattern is kind of funky. Sure, enhanced upper level flow over the Northern Rockies, but another cutoff low over the Southeast means a fairly nebulous severe pattern. Maybe a couple of events over the High Plains, but not much to the east over the lower elevations.

There might finally be an ejecting shortwave by Friday/Saturday, but I’ll hold my breath on that. 

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3 hours ago, Quincy said:

It’s been a tough season for Kansas and Nebraska. I’ve been chasing quite a bit this year, but only a few select events in Kansas. Barely in Nebraska at all, only a couple of the far southwest counties, briefly.*

Hoping for some Northern Plains action today and tomorrow. Today could feature a supercell or two in eastern Montana. Tomorrow looks like quick-to-linear over the Dakotas.

Beyond that, the pattern is kind of funky. Sure, enhanced upper level flow over the Northern Rockies, but another cutoff low over the Southeast means a fairly nebulous severe pattern. Maybe a couple of events over the High Plains, but not much to the east over the lower elevations.

There might finally be an ejecting shortwave by Friday/Saturday, but I’ll hold my breath on that. 

Don't do that, you'll turn blue (I assume you meant to say won't hold my breath on that)!

A cursory glance at the 12Z GFS suggests this coming Saturday could hold some potential, but as you say it's a wait-and-see game at this point.

* May 12 was pretty good in northeast Nebraska. It's the one day this year I didn't chase that I regret not going, but again I didn't see such high potential in a weakening cutoff to warrant a PTO day, especially since I'd already burned one the previous Monday so I could chase western Iowa the evening of Sunday 5/7 (which wasn't a bad chase, remains the most recent thunderstorm I've seen this year, but turned out to not have the tornado potential it looked like it would the night before which led me to ask off last minute).

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Active pattern coming up for High Plains severe threats. Wednesday focuses on eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Thursday should be somewhat farther south.

As stronger upper level flow ejects eastward, Friday has the potential to feature a widespread severe threat from much of the High Plains, eastward into parts of Kansas and possibly even Oklahoma. The signal is strong, not necessarily for a high end event, but for a relatively expansive area with severe potential. 

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7 hours ago, Quincy said:

Active pattern coming up for High Plains severe threats. Wednesday focuses on eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Thursday should be somewhat farther south.

As stronger upper level flow ejects eastward, Friday has the potential to feature a widespread severe threat from much of the High Plains, eastward into parts of Kansas and possibly even Oklahoma. The signal is strong, not necessarily for a high end event, but for a relatively expansive area with severe potential. 

Unfortunately I can't chase Friday, but keeping a close eye on Saturday/potentially Sunday further east.

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Pretty wacky environment near the outflow boundary in the Texas panhandle. Deep layer shear may be modest, but CAMs show 6000-9000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.

SPC has an enhanced risk near that area and also near the CO/NE/WY border region.

One of those events where you can see multiple intense supercells form over widely spaced areas. 

 

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