Quincy Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 There’s been a lot of speculation, but it appears increasingly probable that an uptick, quite possibly to above average levels, of severe thunderstorm activity occurs across the central United States next week. It may, perhaps, continue into late June, but that remains to be seen as ensemble data fluctuates. It starts with a gradual breakdown a persistent Plains upper level ridge. While Great Lakes/Northeast troughing may persist, we’re moving into a time of year where it doesn’t take much troughing off the Rockies/High Plains to set off a series of severe thunderstorm threats. It should be stressed that just because there’s troughing with enhanced deep layer wind fields and favorable moisture, doesn’t mean we’re going to see a series of tornado outbreaks. For all we know, it could be a lot of heavy rain associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), but after a quiet start to June, any way you slice it, severe threats should increase. It starts with an anomalously far south (given time of year) trough ejection across the southern Plains around the Tuesday-Thursday (June 13-15 time frame). The result looks a lot like a May-type pattern, only to occur unusually late in the season. At this stage, Oklahoma, Texas and eastward toward the mid-South could see a late season, final hurrah to their severe season. I dug up some analog data, based on the day 6-10 progs. The top 3 analogs all produced at least one late season (June) significant tornado in Oklahoma. (1963, 1972 and 1998). The 4th analog (1979) produced significant tornadoes in Arkansas, very late in their climatological season, on June 28th. Several dates in June 1998 match the medium and long range progs. This was a month that featured above average tornado activity across the U.S., most notably across Oklahoma, Iowa and even Indiana and eastward toward the Appalachians vicinity. CFS progs have consistently zeroed in on next week for the potential increase in supercell favorable environments. You will notice that the late June signal has been a bit more inconsistent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Well the 00z GFS is certainly impressive for next Tuesday in the S Plains, potentially Monday as well further west. That's a hell of a shortwave ejecting for that far south in June. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Mentioned this on other forums but the signal was consistent enough on the CFS from 500+ hours out, that I asked for next week off a week ago. Still lots of details TBD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Maybe seeing a smidgen of consistency on the last few GFS runs that somewhere in southeastern Kansas could be interesting next Tuesday, with a potentially significant threat in the mid-South on Wednesday (Rather than haul @$$ for this I might chase lesser potential portrayed over portions of KS/NE for that day). Still far out but some eyebrow-raising EHI values being shown over the NE/IA/KS/MO confluence region on multiple consective runs for next Friday with a system that comes in behind the first one. Consistency falls apart pretty quickly for Father's Day weekend with wild run-to-run differences in how that second system is handled beyond Friday 6/16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 7, 2023 Author Share Posted June 7, 2023 Model consistency continues to grow for the middle of next week, with respect to severe potential from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-South. EPS mean 500mb winds of 50-60 knots at such southern latitudes is impressive for Mid-June. You have to imagine some members are showing 60+ knots, which is high-end, given climatology. FWIW, today’s CFS has shown its hottest run for late June, to-date, but long range progs will continue to vary… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 You can not rule out a June Oklahoma event. Tomorrow marks the anniversary of the June 8, 1974 outbreak. Look at page two the graph very impressive event. https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19740608 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 Appetizer for next week's show, SPC increased size of tornado and sig severe hail on the late morning SWODY2. Airmass just SW of DFW Metro at late afternoon tomorrow with a lot of CAPE, including 1500 J/Kg of down cape. STP of 4, don't see that (or 40 knot deep shear) often in mid June, but there you go. CAMS mixed, as they yesterday, for what turned out to be a pretty decent severe weather (hail, impressive wind, and a lot of lightning damage), and were a bit slow on the arrival. W/NW flow event storms that survive to Houston often arrive earlier than predicted on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2023 Share Posted June 9, 2023 I wish I could see any raindrops. As per the 12z convection-allowing models, there should be a few storms in E Texas at 18z that will fall apart and leave behind some form of an outflow boundary. Then, there will probably be several cells forming into an MCS south of Dallas. It seems like there may be a corridor of over 200 m2/s2 of storm relative helicity and 30kt to possibly 40kt of shear powering up these cells. Also, as you may have seen in Ed's post (the previous post,) the forecast sounding has high SHIP (sig hail parameter) and so forth. So, hail of 1"-2" should be quite likely, with maximum hail over 2" possible. As per Ed (previous post) I wouldn't be surprised if the MCS continues more eastward or southward towards Houston than today's 12z models are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 Very messy setup for DFW today, even including first 100*F potential for the year. And the CAMs, as usual, are of no help. Huge bom/bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2023 Share Posted June 10, 2023 5% tornado risk has been added for eastern parts of DFW on the latest Day 1 outlook. Otherwise, no changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 11, 2023 Author Share Posted June 11, 2023 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Lol Tues/Wed look done at this point, ULL over the Great Lakes is crushing/suppressing anything that tries to eject those two days. Maybe done from a Southern Plains chasing standpoint, but a 50+ knot jet is still (most likely) going to streak across the south-central states. Current progs show a target around the Arklatex, maybe back toward DFW. Messy terrain and sloppy HP storms, maybe, but 50-60 knot deep shear vectors out of the W/WNW overspreading 70s dew points and remnant EML could spell trouble. Even if it’s far from a chaser-friendly setup. Wednesday is comical as the target may be suppressed down to near I-10 in Louisiana. More of a March/April setup than mid-June. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an HP slopfest in southern Louisiana. Then the death ridge builds a few days later. You go from brief summer to suppressed flow to deep sumner in Oklahoma in June. Welcome to jet weirding. I am cautiously optimistic that week 2 lights up across the north-central U.S., assuming we don’t get a retrograding Great Lakes cutoff or a rogue western GOM hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 DFW looks to get a few more shots at severe weather tomorrow through Tuesday, although again highly conditional depending on both frontal placement and the timing of subtle MCVs riding the ridge. So the odds of a complete shut out this entire period seems low, but nothing shocks me about the weather any more. Temps could also get tricky as well on Monday with a potential late-season CAD setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 Looks like several several threats through this work week across the Southern Plains as an active southern tier jet pattern establishes. Was woken up by an elevated supercell this morning around 4:45 AM. Other supercells continue as I type this. Oklahoma/Texas, enjoy this week, because a building ridge means deep summer will soon lock in. I’m eyeing the central/northern Plains around the d7-10 window for severe potential, hoping it’s not lost in the models like previous long range fantasy setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Houston is only forecast to reach 97F today. Low 100s all week, but HGX disco holds hope, dry mid-levels will allow low level humidity to mix out. But Summer is locked in here. DFW has 3 more days of spring before summer locks in. 12Z 3 and 12 km NAMs have nothing. Latest HRRR seems to show little except a splitting supercell, with the left split making it to the Metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 HRRR has some storms 03z to 12z near Dallas, with effective helicity/effective shear very favorable for supercells. The surface based updrafts may not happen at all overnight (should be weaker effective helicity) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 I don't what wind profile favors the left cell when a supercell splits, but HRRR likes the idea of a left dominant splitter. 23Z run still doing it. Edit- 7:10, tornado warning. Timmer would be seeing it if TOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 Tornado warned cell and two large severe warned cells near Brady TX (San Angelo radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 The left splitter over the DFW metro verified. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 2 days in a row with greater than 4" hail in the metroplex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 The fun never stops. SPC already throwing cold water on Father's Day weekend into the following week. Late this weekend through early next week, latest medium-range guidance appears to be trending toward the evolution of another prominent high in the southern Hudson Bay to upper Great Lakes vicinity, subsequent to mid/upper trough amplification over the interior West. This may be accompanied by generally weakening flow across much of the U.S., and a return to sparser, less organized daily severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 06/13/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 Looks like another south of the metro special up for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Looks like another south of the metro special up for today It's not quite up yet, but new MD for the DFW area... watch possible. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1016.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 2 hours ago, cheese007 said: Looks like another south of the metro special up for today Maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 48 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Maybe not. *Along/South of I-30 DFW special... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 new Dallas area storm reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 there was a tornado confirmed at Conlen, TX. This large supercell/squall combination has been producing large hail, and there have been other unconfirmed tornado warnings Quote * Tornado Warning for... Southern Sherman County in the Panhandle of Texas... East central Dallam County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 615 PM CDT. * At 531 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles east of Conlen, or 8 miles south of Stratford, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado at 522 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Tomorrow, the SPC has 30% for hail/wind in the Southeast. Here is the severe hail probability chart. The severe wind probability shows nearly the exact same thing without the hatching (significant severe indicator) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Looks like today was a dud for much of NTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Looks like today was a dud for much of NTX It's been a dud for Addison the entire period, probably one of the few areas in the entire Metroplex to not get any severe weather what so ever the past 1-2 weeks (or even a t'storm). I suppose it's a good thing in that we've avoided the hail damage... I'm sure Mansfield, DeSoto and Cedar Hill will get some more monster hail late tonight / early tomorrow morning with the next round looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 FWD finally gave up on making fetch happen, and cancelled the watch 1 hour early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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