TimB Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 GFS is toying with the idea of some big late-summer heat next week. A long way to go, but upper 90s or higher seem to be showing up nearly every run. I guess it depends on how far east the ridge comes. The Euro and the ensembles have more garden variety heat as the ridge sits a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 14, 2023 Author Share Posted August 14, 2023 7 hours ago, TimB said: GFS is toying with the idea of some big late-summer heat next week. A long way to go, but upper 90s or higher seem to be showing up nearly every run. I guess it depends on how far east the ridge comes. The Euro and the ensembles have more garden variety heat as the ridge sits a bit west. The GFS advertising big heat? You don’t say, lol. Last week Ron Smiley took the bait and mentioned that the end of this week would see 90s. We need to be within a few days for it to really be possible. Although, with school starting soon it probably will touch 90 at least once, though the last few years have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 14, 2023 Share Posted August 14, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ahoff said: The GFS advertising big heat? You don’t say, lol. Last week Ron Smiley took the bait and mentioned that the end of this week would see 90s. We need to be within a few days for it to really be possible. Although, with school starting soon it probably will touch 90 at least once, though the last few years have been nice. 12z GFS now has cold for next week, lol. It never seems to get closer than 7-8 days or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 On 8/11/2023 at 10:25 AM, TheClimateChanger said: Interesting... Exactly normal for the month to date. Technically, there hasn't been a below normal day since August 2 - granted 4 of those days since have been exactly normal. Now, up to 12 consecutive days at or above normal. Very good chance today will bring that figure up to 13; however, tomorrow appears to be slightly below normal. If we somehow reach normal tomorrow, the streak will almost certainly end on Friday and Saturday with much cooler low temperatures forecast. Despite having had only 2 below normal days as of the middle of the month, the month-to-date departure only stands at +0.8F, as there have been no dates with significant departures from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Yet again we’ve surged to 80 at PIT when it wasn’t forecast. It’s uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Currently in the 9th longest streak of 79+ degree days on record (37 days). If tomorrow gets there (could go either way) and Thursday gets there (pretty much a lock) it’ll move into 8th and be the longest such streak since 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 We're struggling today for sure with temps. Famous upper level low clouds not moving out as quickly as they were supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Almost a taste of fall out there today with the gloom and early afternoon temperatures not much better than 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Despite feeling rather fall-like, the daily mean was only one less than the normal daily mean. That’s the first below normal daily mean since August 2. Incredibly hard to go below normal when the low temperatures don’t drop below 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 First day with a high of 76 or less since June. I’m going to disagree with the feeling fall-like part. Dewpoints stayed in the 60s all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted August 19, 2023 Share Posted August 19, 2023 Nice night tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 21, 2023 Author Share Posted August 21, 2023 Maybe a 90. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 89 again. Warmest day in August thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Absolutely brutal and when I'm working I hate this weather. Try fighting a fire when it's this hot. Looks like Thursday is our next chance for rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Absolutely brutal and when I'm working I hate this weather. Try fighting a fire when it's this hot. Looks like Thursday is our next chance for rain/storms. Isn't it supposed to rain tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 52 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Isn't it supposed to rain tomorrow? Night, mostly after midnight, so Thursday sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 These threaded records are so dumb for Pittsburgh, especially in the summer, when the variability is at a minimum. Summer to date is 34th warmest (of 71 years) at KPIT, so just above the median of all years observed at the International Airport. But in the threaded record, it is 43rd coldest (of 149 years) (or 102nd warmest, as there were a lot of years tied with it). Adding those 78 years, the ranking drops 68 places! In other words, 68 of the 78 years in the threaded record before PIT existed (from 1875-1952) were warmer than this summer. In the threaded record, it will look like a relatively cool summer at PIT. But in reality, it's actually slightly warmer than the long-term median when you correct for location & elevation of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 hour ago, TimB said: Night, mostly after midnight, so Thursday sounds about right. I swear this morning they showed rain at like noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: These threaded records are so dumb for Pittsburgh, especially in the summer, when the variability is at a minimum. Summer to date is 34th warmest (of 71 years) at KPIT, so just above the median of all years observed at the International Airport. But in the threaded record, it is 43rd coldest (of 149 years) (or 102nd warmest, as there were a lot of years tied with it). Adding those 78 years, the ranking drops 68 places! In other words, 68 of the 78 years in the threaded record before PIT existed (from 1875-1952) were warmer than this summer. In the threaded record, it will look like a relatively cool summer at PIT. But in reality, it's actually slightly warmer than the long-term median when you correct for location & elevation of the airport. Thanks to June, this summer is running below average. July and August are only slightly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I swear this morning they showed rain at like noon tomorrow. Maybe someone did. Wasn’t the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 3:15 PM, Ahoff said: I swear this morning they showed rain at like noon tomorrow. You win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 23, 2023 Author Share Posted August 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, TimB said: You win. Usually I don’t lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 I normally am not watching models this time of year. But I had some outside plans this evening and so have been paying attention. Not sure I have ever seen model agreement (and a forecast tied to it) that busted this bad. Today was pegged to be dry for the last 5 days, and only last night did I see mention of a stray shower. Models (including short term) were bone dry until after dark. I wouldn’t be suprised if I’ve seen 1” of rain already. Would love to see that happen in the winter! Would also be interesting to see why it was handled so poorly. Looks like these shortwaves diving down were stronger than progged 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Wouldn’t mind this setup in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 Really underperforming today. Forecast was 86-87, bet we get to at most 80-82. And dew points were supposed to be in mid 70s this afternoon, per Ron Smiley, looks like mid 60s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Looks like there is a chance next Wednesday could stay below 70F. I'm a little doubtful at this point, but it would be the first in over two months (6/27) should it occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 2042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 250133Z - 250300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely shortly. DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream watch will be needed shortly. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964 43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957 40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301 40868378 41138471 41518508 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 Lost a tree in the storms overnight. Sounds like there were a lot of downed trees areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 @TheClimateChangeris there a way to do an analysis on how much September average dewpoints have risen in, say, 2013-2022 vs. 1990-1999? Anecdotally it seems it’d be at least 5 degrees but that could be a memory hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, TimB said: @TheClimateChangeris there a way to do an analysis on how much September average dewpoints have risen in, say, 2013-2022 vs. 1990-1999? Anecdotally it seems it’d be at least 5 degrees but that could be a memory hole. Yes, that can be done. I just did the analysis using the Iowa Environmental Mesonet site. Here is a link that should generate the plot below: Automated Data Plotter (iastate.edu) September dewpoints have risen substantially over that time frame at PIT, but not 5F. The chart below estimates a slope of +8.4F/century. Note that this data computes average dew point and average temperature by averaging the numbers observed at every hourly observation. You can also download the raw data to an Excel spreadsheet, which I did. For 1990-1999, the average September temperature was 63.9F, and the average dewpoint was 55.2F. For 2013-2022, the average September temperature was 66.5F, and the average dewpoint was 57.7F. An increase of 2.6F and 2.5F, respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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