Pittsburgh/Western PA Summer 2023

[Ahoff]

Maybe we should start this thread since we've already seen our first 90 degree day.

[Ahoff]

Currently tied for 42nd longest stretch with no measurable precip at 15 days.  After today we make it to a tie for 30th longest dry stretch.  If we get past Tuesday without rain we have a chance at making the top 10 longest dry streaks.  And the first time recording 20+ days with no rain since 1997.

[TheClimateChanger]

The dewpoints of 30F at 4 am and 31F at 10 PM appear to have tied the lowest values on record for those hours at Pittsburgh International. Models suggest plenty of dewpoints in the 30s, and possibly 20s later in the week, so we could approach the record lowest dewpoint of 24F set at midnight on June 3, 1986. With the exception of a few hourly records tied last year, all other record low dewpoints were set on June 2-3, 1986, and June 11, 1972. Like this year, both 1986 and 1972 featured developing El Ninos, and both went on to be rather significant events (peak ONI of 2.1 during the 1972-1973 El Nino, and a peak ONI of 1.7 during the 1986-1988 El Nino). This suggests there may be a link between El Nino events and dryness in early June around this region. 1972 did turn much wetter, with the remnants of Hurricane Agnes producing record flooding in Pennsylvania. That appears to be a bit of an outlier though, especially since El Ninos tend to reduce tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to increased wind shear, so I certainly wouldn't bank on a repeat of that.

While the low was 51 at PIT this morning, outlying areas were considerably colder. Some morning lows around the region include 39F at Zelienople, 40F at Youngstown, 41F at Franklin, 41F at Butler, 42F at New Castle, 43F at Latrobe, 44F at Washington, and 45F at Indiana and DuBois.

[TimB]

58 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The dewpoints of 30F at 4 am and 31F at 10 PM appear to have tied the lowest values on record for those hours at Pittsburgh International. Models suggest plenty of dewpoints in the 30s, and possibly 20s later in the week, so we could approach the record lowest dewpoint of 24F set at midnight on June 3, 1986. With the exception of a few hourly records tied last year, all other record low dewpoints were set on June 2-3, 1986, and June 11, 1972. Like this year, both 1986 and 1972 featured developing El Ninos, and both went on to be rather significant events (peak ONI of 2.1 during the 1972-1973 El Nino, and a peak ONI of 1.7 during the 1986-1988 El Nino). This suggests there may be a link between El Nino events and dryness in early June around this region. 1972 did turn much wetter, with the remnants of Hurricane Agnes producing record flooding in Pennsylvania. That appears to be a bit of an outlier though, especially since El Ninos tend to reduce tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to increased wind shear, so I certainly wouldn't bank on a repeat of that.

While the low was 51 at PIT this morning, outlying areas were considerably colder. Some morning lows around the region include 39F at Zelienople, 40F at Youngstown, 41F at Franklin, 41F at Butler, 42F at New Castle, 43F at Latrobe, 44F at Washington, and 45F at Indiana and DuBois.

6/11/72 is the date that features the seemingly unbreakable all time June record low of 34, isn’t it?

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, TimB said:

6/11/72 is the date that features the seemingly unbreakable all time June record low of 34, isn’t it?

Looks like it, yes. The high and low that day were 68 and 34, respectively. On June 2, 1986, it was 66/47, and on June 3, 1986, it was 72/41. So clearly, relative humidity levels are considerable lower with this current spell.

[donyewest]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Atlantic basin due to increased wind shear

I've been watching discussions around this and there appears to be a lot of apprehension on the hurricane outlook because of how anomalously high the Atlantic SSTs presently are.  I tried to find studies on the balance point between Atlantic SSTs versus Nino intensity and there aren't many, prob because aren't many samples, ha.  Heck, this blurb shows an 1899 analog which did have an active hurricane season.

ECMWF pure model-based forecast just came out aggressively for an above-average season.  Thing is, Nino shear is not as intense in the Gulf and mid-latitudes, and if there is a dip in Nino intensity or a block then the window may open for a hurricane to rapidly intensify.  A hurricane, whether slowed/widened from shear or super cat 5, would ride up whatever high pressure region *cough*Bermuda/Azores*cough* available and that could open us up to a threat.

[KPITSnow]

This has been one of the most incredible stretches of early summer I can remember. 

[TheClimateChanger]

No strawberry picking this year at Soergel’s due to the drought: 

https://www.wpxi.com/news/local/soergel-orchards-wexford-cancels-strawberry-festival/YA3HKTJRZBHZ5CMAHELYFDX42Q/

[Ahoff]

Looks like that damn smoke will be keeping us cooler than expected this week.  Was pretty thick for a time yesterday and looks to start pretty thick today.

[Ahoff]

Seems kind of odd that Canada has so many fires, yet I've heard nothing about any western US fires.  Is that weird, or am I just disconnected?

I really don't remember being this affected (smoke-wise) by Canadian wildfires.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like that damn smoke will be keeping us cooler than expected this week.  Was pretty thick for a time yesterday and looks to start pretty thick today.

Smoke is pretty intense for sure. Made for a really bright orange view of the sun. Almost looks like it's foggy out, but its smoke. Trying to get over a respiratory cold and I can definitely feel it making it harder to breath. Normally I don't notice anything different during these air quality alerts, so must be the combination of the two.

[Ahoff]

Currently, tied for 26th longest dry streak at 17 days.  After today we hit 18 and move to a tie for 21st.  If we make it through Saturday, like expected we should move to 21 days and tied for 9th longest ever and top ten most dry days in a row.

[TimB]

18 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Currently, tied for 26th longest dry streak at 17 days.  After today we hit 18 and move to a tie for 21st.  If we make it through Saturday, like expected we should move to 21 days and tied for 9th longest ever and top ten most dry days in a row.

NWS is calling for a 40% chance of rain tomorrow and similar for Friday.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/5/2023 at 10:01 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

The dewpoints of 30F at 4 am and 31F at 10 PM appear to have tied the lowest values on record for those hours at Pittsburgh International. Models suggest plenty of dewpoints in the 30s, and possibly 20s later in the week, so we could approach the record lowest dewpoint of 24F set at midnight on June 3, 1986. With the exception of a few hourly records tied last year, all other record low dewpoints were set on June 2-3, 1986, and June 11, 1972. Like this year, both 1986 and 1972 featured developing El Ninos, and both went on to be rather significant events (peak ONI of 2.1 during the 1972-1973 El Nino, and a peak ONI of 1.7 during the 1986-1988 El Nino). This suggests there may be a link between El Nino events and dryness in early June around this region. 1972 did turn much wetter, with the remnants of Hurricane Agnes producing record flooding in Pennsylvania. That appears to be a bit of an outlier though, especially since El Ninos tend to reduce tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to increased wind shear, so I certainly wouldn't bank on a repeat of that.

While the low was 51 at PIT this morning, outlying areas were considerably colder. Some morning lows around the region include 39F at Zelienople, 40F at Youngstown, 41F at Franklin, 41F at Butler, 42F at New Castle, 43F at Latrobe, 44F at Washington, and 45F at Indiana and DuBois.

Pretty close to the record hourly minimum dewpoint at KPIT right now.

[north pgh]

I like the weather for temperature but I miss the thunderstorms and we need humidity for that. Still a lot of summer to go. 

[jwilson]

Friday could be another bad smoke day.  Courtesy FireSmoke.ca - this is Friday morning say between 8 AM and Noon.  We'll see if it holds.

[CoraopolisWx]

3 hours ago, north pgh said:

I like the weather for temperature but I miss the thunderstorms and we need humidity for that. Still a lot of summer to go. 

Definitely an unusual start to met summer. This dry back door cold front pattern would be more useful with a strong STJ in the winter. 

[TimB]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Pretty close to the record hourly minimum dewpoint at KPIT right now.

Looks like we tied the 8pm record (30) and broke the 9pm record (29).

[TheClimateChanger]

Not sure if it runs a bit cool, but the AWOS at Zelienople Municipal Airport is down to a chilly 36 this morning: 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPJC.html

[Ahoff]

18 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS is calling for a 40% chance of rain tomorrow and similar for Friday.

We'll see, I'm seeing only 20% this morning.  Almost no rain has been able to materialize on these chances.  Either way, this was a remarkable dry streak.

 

Does anyone know what percentage these wildfires are contained up in Canada?  The smoke and haze are getting a bit old.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

We'll see.  Almost no rain has been able to materialize on these chances.  Either way, this was a remarkable dry streak.

They’ve already backed today off to 20%. I expect we add another day to the streak today.

[TimB]

48 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not sure if it runs a bit cool, but the AWOS at Zelienople Municipal Airport is down to a chilly 36 this morning: 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPJC.html

It’s at least within the realm of possibility. Butler got down to 39.

[north pgh]

Cool today. My temp is only 65 and overcast. 

[north pgh]

21 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Cool today. My temp is only 65 and overcast. 

I just had a light rain shower. Barely wet the pavement. Not showing up on my rain gauge. Will the airport get more than a trace or will the streak continue?

[meatwad]

Dry streak continues, 0.0” at pit today and agc

[TheClimateChanger]

I think I can smell the fires now, unless it’s a local fire.

[Ahoff]

16 hours ago, meatwad said:

Dry streak continues, 0.0” at pit today and agc

Which is wild.  Right in between the two (actually pretty near AGC) I saw like maybe a 10 minute shower.

[Ahoff]

16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think I can smell the fires now, unless it’s a local fire.

Smelled it a bit last night too.

[TimB]

Should add one more day to the dry streak at PIT to make this the 10th time we’ve gone 21 days without rain. All of the others occurred at least partially in meteorological autumn.

[meatwad]

Dry streak ends with .02’’ of rain today.

Looks very nino like with the slow moving closed low next week.