Summer maximum forecast contest -- final report -- congrats to Weather53, Rick in Baltimore, biodhokie

[WEATHER53]

Hottest around DC since Labor Day 1980. Record hot summer 1980  until I think 2010 for DCA ?

[Roger Smith]

Two of the four contest locations edged up by 1F today (so I read on NWS) ... IAD 99F and BWI 98F ... here are the updated contest standings (edit 4th, two more 1F rises for DCA and BWI today, IAD and RIC tied their previous maxima for 2023. edit 5th for DCA now at 99F ... the others all tied their previous seasonal maxima): 

 

Current standings as of September 5, 2023 (updated version for Sep 6 is in later post)

 

Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date).

__ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 98

The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. 

This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. 

(table adjusted Sep 3 for IAD 99 and BWI 98 and again Sep 4 for DCA 98 and BWI 99) 

(Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ applies to IAD, DCA and one forecast for BWI only so far)

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals)

WxUSAF ( 4 ) __________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 0 0 1 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 __ 

Its a Breeze (12) _______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 1 0 0 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 __ earlier entry of 0012

NorthArlington101 (21) _________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 0 2 0 1_____3 ____ 3 __ later entry of 0012 

MN Transplant ( 5 ) ____________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 1 0 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0111

RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ___________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ______0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 5 __ later entry of 0111

Weather53 (13) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _____ 0 0 1 3 ____ 4 ____ 6 __ lower 3rd lowest error (1)

nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) __________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 _____ 0 0 2 2 ____ 4 ____ 7 __ higher 3rd lowest error (2)

katabatic ( 9 ) __________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 _____  0 1 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 8 __ higher lowest error (1)

LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 _____ 1 2 1 0 ____ 4 ____ 9 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0112

WxWatcher007 (11) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______1 2 0 1 ____4 ____ 10 __ 3rd earliest entry of 0112

GramaxRefugee (19) ___________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 _____1 0 1 2 ____ 4 ____ 11 __ latest entry of 0 1 1 2

biodhokie (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______0 2 0 3 ____ 5 ___ 12

WinstonSalemArlington (22) ___ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 ______0 0 4 3 ____ 7 ____13 __ lowest low error (0)

Stormpc (14) ___________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 _____ 1 3 2 1 ____ 7 ____14 __ next lower 2nd low error (1)

Terpeast ( 6 ) __________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 1 2 2 2 ____ 7 ____15 __ higher 2nd lowest error (2)

wxdude64 (16) ________________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ______2 0 2 4 ____ 8 ____16 __ lowest low error (0)

toolsheds (18) _________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 _ 102 _______1 1 2 4 ____ 8 ____ 17 __ lower 3rd lowest error (2)

tplbge (24) ____________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ______1 1 3 3 ____ 8 ____ 18 __higher 3rd lowest error (3)

mattie g (17) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ______2 4 2 4 ___ 12 ____19 __ lower 2nd lowest error (2)

H2O (20) ______________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 3 2 3 4 ___ 12 ____ 20 __ higher 2nd lowest error (3)

soundmdwatcher (23) _________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ______1 3 5 4 ___ 13 ____21

ChillinIt (15) ____________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ______3 1 4 6 ___ 14 ____ 22 

Roger Smith ___________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ______ 3 3 4 5 ___ 15 ____ 23

Rhino16 ( 2 ) ___________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 ______ 2 4 3 7 ___ 16 ____ 24

StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ______ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 ______ 5 4 4 6 ___ 19 ____ 25

GeorgeBM ( 8 ) ________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 ______ 6 4 7 6 ___ 23 ____ 26

______________________________

The table will be updated if necessary. 

[WEATHER53]

On 8/3/2023 at 3:01 AM, Roger Smith said:

I expect some serious heat to develop late in August like such years as 1948, 1953 and 1973. That anomaly in the southwest and parts of the northwest U.S. (up to my location, running hot here too) will eventually shift east. It may be near the end of August or maybe early September. But I think it will lead to 100+ days occurring then and setting records. 

 

You got the extreme heat right.  Bit off on timing but still dead right on extreme heat just  early  Sept 

[yoda]

On 6/8/2023 at 1:40 PM, WEATHER53 said:

The word I just got is that this summer never gets into protracted heat, does not get a string  of more than 6  90+ consecutively and has 30 or less 90+ readings at DCA.

 

 

I believe that you have done well with this call

[WxWatcher007]

Dulles did me in  

[MN Transplant]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Two of the four contest locations edged up by 1F today (so I read on NWS) ... IAD 99F and BWI 98F ... here are the updated contest standings: 

 

Current standings as of September 3, 2023

 

Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD only to date).

__ Max values to date ____________ 97 __ 99 __ 98 __ 98

The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. 

This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. 

(table adjusted Sep 3 for IAD 99 and BWI 98) 

(Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ applies to IAD only so far)

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) __ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC _____ Errors ____Total __ Rank __ qualifier (what separates tied totals)

 

LittleVillageWx (10) ______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ______ 1 2 0 0 ____ 3 ____ 1

MN Transplant ( 5 ) ______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 1 0 2 1 ____ 4 ____ 2 __ earlier entry (of 4 total scores)

 

 

A lot of the entries are still in play.  Stupid BWI pavement stopped working.

[Roger Smith]

Scoring table updated again, as two more 1F increases today (DCA to 98, BWI to 99), many tie-breakers applied. 

Is there any chance of further increases? Will check to see if today's early climate reports are final values as I understand it has stayed quite hot beyond their reporting times. 

(scoring table posted yesterday is edited)

[Its a Breeze]

So hear me out....

RIC is technically in southern Virginia, and therefore should not count. Also, with Labor Day being the end of summer, we can ignore any subsequent readings and close the contest as of yesterday.

 

[MN Transplant]

26 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

So hear me out....

RIC is technically in southern Virginia, and therefore should not count. Also, with Labor Day being the end of summer, we can ignore any subsequent readings and close the contest as of yesterday.

 

Since you and I have DCA/IAD identical, I really just need BWI to hit 100 and not RIC.  

Of course, we are both going to lose when IAD/DCA hit 100 tomorrow.

[Roger Smith]

Well, I see DCA edged up to join IAD and BWI at 99F, and otherwise, all other locations tied their previous seasonal maxima on Tuesday.

This change (see edited table above) moves WxUSAF into the contest lead. Still lots of tiebreakers, some persisted from previous report, others went to new combinations. 

Just to clarify rules already announced at start of contest, ranks are separated by the first lower error in sequential order, for example, 0002 beats 0011, 1234 beats 1333, 0012 beats 0111. By sequential order, it has nothing to do with the four station order, just the "logic" of your errors from lowest to highest arranged in order, as these examples and my scoring table notes illustrate. 

If nothing separates the four errors, then it goes to order of entry. 

Perhaps we'll be gathering again this evening, I will post something anyway. Planning a two week absence from internet starting Friday so if this situation persists beyond Friday, you may not see updates from me for a while. I will probably get a brief chance to look in and see what if anything happened during those days. 

I am sure if this heat had arrived a couple of weeks ago it might have reached some of the contest higher predictions, ORD was 100F then, and a bit of the heat broke away but I think we noted it only reached about 96 or 97 that one day. 

[WxUSAF]

Hell yeah!

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hell yeah!

Says the guy who just last week was talking about how much he wanted this week to gth. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Says the guy who just last week was talking about how much he wanted this week to gth. 

I mean, silver lining and all

[Its a Breeze]

Help me Richmond, you're my only hope...

[wxdude64]

3 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

Help me Richmond, you're my only hope...

Those ARE the temps you are looking for....

[Its a Breeze]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Those ARE the temps you are looking for....

Yes, and it looks like RIC came through! Don't know when it's official, but I'm seeing 100 at 3:10. Now...don't go any higher please

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRIC

[biodhokie]

2 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Yes, and it looks like RIC came through! Don't know when it's official, but I'm seeing 100 at 3:10. Now...don't go any higher please

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRIC

Give me one more!

[H2O]

Need some 737s at the big 3 to blast the sensor for 5 min and I can win this

[Its a Breeze]

Preliminary but - Ugh, heartbreak. Looks like BWI hit 100 shattered any slim chance I had....

Congrats @WxUSAF with the near perfect score

 

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said:

Preliminary but - Ugh, heartbreak. Looks like BWI hit 100 shattered any slim chance I had....

Congrats @WxUSAF with the near perfect score

 

Not so fast.  With the 100 at IAD too, i think@RickinBaltimore  took the lead.

[WxUSAF]

Noooooo

[Roger Smith]

Cleared up the uncertainty about IAD which appears to have hit 100F as well as BWI, RIC at 101F. 

 

Current standings as of September 6, 2023

 

Table is now in scoring order. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far (IAD and one BWI forecast passed now, to date).

__ Max values to date ____________ 99 __ 100 __100 __101

The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. 

This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. 

(Note: errors underlined are subject to future increases as the forecasts are already below outcomes _ now applies to all locations.

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) _ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC___ Errors ____Total__Rank__qualifier (what separates tied totals)

Weather53 (13) _______________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ____ 0 1 0 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 

 

RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) __________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 0 0 2 ___2 ____ 2 __ lower 3rd lowest error (0)

biodhokie (25) ________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _____0 1 1 0 ____2 ____ 3 __ higher 3rd lowest error (1)

WxUSAF ( 4 ) _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 0 1 0 2 ___ 3 ____ 4 __ earlier entry of 0012

katabatic ( 9 ) _________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 0 2 0 1 ____3 ____ 5 __ 2nd earliest entry of 0012

tplbge (24) ___________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ____1 0 2 0 ____3 ____ 6 __ later entry of 0012

nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 __100 ____ 0 1 1 1 ____ 3 ____ 7 __ earlier entry of 0111

GramaxRefugee (19) __________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ____1 1 0 1 ____ 3 ____ 8 __ later entry of 0111

WinstonSalemArlington (22) __ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 _____0 1 3 0____4 ____ 9 __ lowest 3rd lowest error (0)

MN Transplant ( 5 ) ___________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ____ 1 1 0 2 ____4 ____10 __ lower lowest error (0) than 1111

Terpeast ( 6 ) _________________100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 _____1 1 1 1 _____4 ____11 __ earlier entry of 1111

Its a Breeze (12) ______________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ____ 1 1 1 1 _____4 ____12 __ later entry of 0111

wxdude64 (16) _______________ 101 _ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 2 1 1 1 ____ 5 ___ 13 __ earlier entry of 1112

toolsheds (18) ________________ 100 _ 98 _ 101 __ 102 ____ 1 2 1 1 ____ 5 ____14 __ later entry of 1112

NorthArlington101 (21) ________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ____0 3 1 2 ____ 6 ____15 __ lower lowest error (0)

Stormpc (14) __________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ____ 1 2 1 2 ____6 ____16 __ higher lowest error (1)

WxWatcher007 (11) ___________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 _____1 3 1 2 ____7 ____17 __ earliest entry of 1123

mattie g (17) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _____2 3 1 1 ____7 ____18 __ 2nd earliest entry of 1123

H2O (20) _____________________ 102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _____3 1 2 1 ____7 ____19 __latest entry of 1123

soundmdwatcher (23) ________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ____1 2 4 1 ____ 8 ____20

LittleVillageWx (10) ____________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 1 3 2 3 ____9 ____ 21 

ChillinIt (15) ___________________ 102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 3 2 3 3 ___11 ____22 

Roger Smith __________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 _____3 2 3 2 ___10 ____23

Rhino16 ( 2 ) __________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 _____2 3 2 4 ___11 ____24

StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) _____ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 _____5 3 3 3 ___14 ____25

GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _______________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 _____6 3 6 3 ___18 ____26

______________________________

The table will be updated if necessary. 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

On the podium!

[Roger Smith]

Climate report says 99 IAD but regional roundup (and RodneyS) say 100. I await confirmation, table may need an edit later. 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Climate report says 99 IAD but regional roundup (and RodneyS) say 100. I await confirmation, table may need an edit later. 

And off the podium. 

[Its a Breeze]

I'm Ron Rivera's Washington Commanders. Late season runs that looks promising, but ultimately falls short 

 

[WEATHER53]

I think IAD and BWI hit 100 so that would put me at 1 because I  had IAD at 99 

in any event it’s a glorious One  Shining Moment for now

Many  of you are always Really Good 

Nice to be really good 

[WxWatcher007]

Absolutely ridiculous. 100s in September. 

[yoda]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Climate report says 99 IAD but regional roundup (and RodneyS) say 100. I await confirmation, table may need an edit later. 

RTPLWX
Max/Min Temperature and Precipitation Table for the Mid-Atlantic
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
811 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023

Values represent highs and lows since 1 AM LST (06 UTC),
and precipitation over the last 24 hours (since 7 PM
LST yesterday).

.BR LWX 0906 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
:
:                             Max   Min
:ID        Location          Temp  Temp    Pcpn
:
: First-order and climate sites
BWI  : Balt-Wash Marshall  :  100 /  73 /  0.00
CHO  : Charlottesville AP  :   99 /  71 /  0.00
DCA  : Reagan National AP  :   98 /  75 /  0.00
DMH  : Baltimore Inner Hrb.:   99 /  81 /  0.00
HGR  : Hagerstown Rgnl AP  :   96 /  69 /  0.00
IAD  : Dulles Intl Airport :  100 /  69 /  0.00
MRB  : Eastern WV Rgnl AP  :   95 /  63 /  0.00
NAK  : Annapolis Naval Acad:   90 /  75 /  0.00
:

[Roger Smith]

Yes, climate report now says 100F as well, so we edit. See new contest standings in a recent post above. 

Seems like the heat may now fade slowly? This may be the final report. In any case I am going to be away on a trip to UT and n AZ ... may get a few moments on the internet but any new developments would probably go unseen by me until at least a week from now.