Summer maximum forecast contest -- final report -- congrats to Weather53, Rick in Baltimore, biodhokie

[TSG]

@Roger Smith can we get a mid-season update?

yes I'm aware I didn't put an entry in this year..

[Roger Smith]

As of today, summer max ...  ...

 

DCA __ 94 on June 2 and July 13

IAD ___ 96 on July 13

BWI ___ 97 on June 2 (96 on July 13)

RIC ___ 94 on July 4, 13

 

[Roger Smith]

Good chance of near 100F on Friday? One day wonder. If that southwest heat wave ever got fully released ... but it looks like a brief blast from that source as the southwest heat dome connects briefly to the distant Atlantic ridge. May last into Saturday for RIC possibly. 

[WEATHER53]

Some action coming up!

[Roger Smith]

Update ...

DCA __ 97 on July 29

IAD ___ 98 on July 27, 28, 29

BWI ___ 97 on June 2 and July 27, 28

RIC ___ 96 on July 27 then 98 on July 28

Made several updates to July 29 ...

 

[Roger Smith]

Three locations tied the above values (previous post) and RIC went to 98F on July 28. Edited previous post. edited again July 29 for DCA 97F. IAD added another tied 98F. 

[Roger Smith]

Current standings as of July 29, 2023

 

 

Table remains in forecast table order for now. Errors underlined are the few that are forecasts already passed by actual maxima so far.

__ Max values to date ____________ 97 __ 98 __ 97 __ 98

The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier. 

This table will be adjusted if or when necessary, and if not, it will be posted again in rank order later in the summer. 

(table adjusted July 29 for DCA 97)

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) __ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC _____ Errors ____Total __ Rank __ qualifier (to separate tied totals)

GeorgeBM ( 8 ) _________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104 ______ 8 5 9 6 ___ 28 ____ 26

StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ________ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104 ______7 5 6 6 ___ 24 ____25

Roger Smith _____________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103 ______5 4 6 5 ___ 20 ____ 23

H2O (20) _________________________102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ______ 5 3 5 4 ___ 17 ____20 __ 2nd lowest error (3)

ChillinIt (15) ______________________102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104 ______ 5 0 6 6 ___ 17 ____19 __ lowest lowest error (0)

Rhino16 ( 2 ) _____________________ 101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105 ______ 4 5 5 7 ___ 21 ____24

mattie g (17) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 4 5 4 4 ___ 17 ____21 __ highest lowest error (4)

wxdude64 (16) ___________________101 __ 99 _ 101 __ 102 ______4 1 4 4 ___ 13____ 17 __ lower lowest error (1)

soundmdwatcher (23) ___________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102 ______3 4 7 4 ___ 18 ____22

Terpeast ( 6 ) ____________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 3 3 4 2 ___ 12 ____16 __ higher lowest error (2)

tplbge (24) _______________________100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101 ______ 3 2 5 3 ___ 13 ____18 __ higher lowest error (2)

GramaxRefugee (19) _____________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 3 1 3 2 ____ 9 ____10 __ later entry

toolsheds (18) ____________________100 __ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 3 0 4 4 ___ 11 ____14

biodhokie (25) ____________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 2 3 2 3 ___ 10 ____13 __ higher lowest error (2)

RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ______________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 2 2 3 1 ____ 8 ____ 8

WinstonSalemArlington (22) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 2 1 6 3 ___ 12 ____15 __ lower lowest error (1)

nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 2 1 4 2 ____ 9 ____ 9 __ earlier entry

Weather53 (13) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 2 1 3 3 ____ 9 ____11 __ higher second lowest error (3 vs 2 for 9th, 10th)

WxUSAF ( 4 ) _____________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 2 1 3 1 ____ 7 _____ 7 __ higher lowest error (1)

katabatic ( 9 ) _____________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 2 0 3 2 ____ 7 _____ 6 __ lower lowest error (0)

NorthArlington101 (21) ____________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 2 1 2 1 ____ 6 _____ 4 __ later entry

Stormpc (14) ______________________98 _ 102 __ 101 __ 99 ______ 1 4 4 1 ___ 10 ____12 __ lower lowest error (1)

MN Transplant ( 5 ) _______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 1 1 3 1 ____ 6 _____ 3 __ earlier entry

Its a Breeze (12) __________________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 1 1 2 2 ____ 6 _____ 5 __ higher second lowest error

WxWatcher007 (11) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 1 1 2 1 ____ 5 _____ 2

LittleVillageWx (10) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ______ 1 1 1 0 ____ 3 _____ 1

 

 

[yoda]

DCA 97

IAD 98

BWI 99

[MN Transplant]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA 97

IAD 98

BWI 99

Where are you getting 99 at BWI?

[Roger Smith]

I am only seeing 96 at BWI, 97 at DCA is the lone increase today. Scoring table will be adjusted. 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Where are you getting 99 at BWI?

CWG tweeted it

 

 

[yoda]

I see DMH is 99 and BWI is 96... so I guess they got the two mixed up 

[WEATHER53]

On 6/8/2023 at 1:40 PM, WEATHER53 said:

The word I just got is that this summer never gets into protracted heat, does not get a string  of more than 6  90+ consecutively and has 30 or less 90+ readings at DCA.

 

 

So this outlook is looking good with 19 90’s so far snd five consecutive days the max

i also think it’s 60% probable we have recorded our highest values except for Richmond 

[Roger Smith]

I expect some serious heat to develop late in August like such years as 1948, 1953 and 1973. That anomaly in the southwest and parts of the northwest U.S. (up to my location, running hot here too) will eventually shift east. It may be near the end of August or maybe early September. But I think it will lead to 100+ days occurring then and setting records. 

 

[WEATHER53]

On 8/3/2023 at 3:01 AM, Roger Smith said:

I expect some serious heat to develop late in August like such years as 1948, 1953 and 1973. That anomaly in the southwest and parts of the northwest U.S. (up to my location, running hot here too) will eventually shift east. It may be near the end of August or maybe early September. But I think it will lead to 100+ days occurring then and setting records. 

 

Honestly I doubt it.  Just hasn’t been in the cards. 1953 has shown up a lot though but by end of August we are two months past peak sun and 100+ is rare 

[Eskimo Joe]

Unless something changes dramatically, it appears that many of us went too high with temperatures for this summer. 

[WxWatcher007]

I was just off. Second place?

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless something changes dramatically, it appears that many of us went too high with temperatures for this summer. 

People went too high for most summers.  It is a minority of years that hit 100.

[mattie g]

9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

People went too high for most summers.  It is a minority of years that hit 100.

I've gone under 100 for quite a few years now (I think), but this year I honestly thought we'd spike once or twice in an otherwise relatively benign summer.

[MN Transplant]

I should have posted this one in here.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

People went too high for most summers.  It is a minority of years that hit 100.

That’s why I went lower.

[GramaxRefugee]

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

People went too high for most summers.  It is a minority of years that hit 100.

"Dream Big" mentality. Compare to entries in our annual snowfall contest.  Even better. 

Part of the fun.

[Roger Smith]

Well I have 106F outside here today, in that heat dome 2.0 and I'm wondering if a bit of this heat will get into the Mid-Atlantic around Monday of next week? It is certainly going to reposition over the central plains region by the coming weekend. We will end up with four days at or above 100F here in this heat wave and a severe thunderstorm end to it on Friday, probably not what we need to keep a lid on the regional fire situation which is bad but not quite at worst-case scenario levels yet. Rain has been infrequent in the past six weeks but that is normal around here. 106F is about 20 above normal for this location in mid-August. 

Anyway, keep an eye on Monday. GFS 18z has 582dm thickness near DC. Cold front blasts through overnight so Sunday-Monday is the only hope. 

[Roger Smith]

Looking a bit more like mid-90s than 100F now, there isn't much push on the heat and locations upstream have remained in mid-90s, but there will be lots of sunshine in the MA region tomorrow, I think. Will be checking to see if any of the four locations need an update. Sort of expecting not. 

[Roger Smith]

95 at RIC, 94 at IAD and 92 at DCA, BWI on Monday Aug 21st. No changes to contest. Friday another weak pulse of heat breaks away from the source region but I don't see much potential for it to be warmer than today. 

I am expecting some record warmth in the autumn but that has to come before mid-September to produce warmer temperatures than our current contest values. 

[WEATHER53]

On 6/8/2023 at 1:40 PM, WEATHER53 said:

The word I just got is that this summer never gets into protracted heat, does not get a string  of more than 6  90+ consecutively and has 30 or less 90+ readings at DCA.

 

 

This outlook of 30 or less 90 and not more than 6 consecutive 90+ turned out excellent.  In addition no late August heat occurred either 

will have the winter outlook in about three weeks 

[Its a Breeze]

I didn't do too bad this year.

Next year, I do not think we'll be as fortunate in being this "low", but we'll see.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Its a Breeze said:

I didn't do too bad this year.

Next year, I do not think we'll be as fortunate in being this "low", but we'll see.

Considering that virtually every other region has baked well over 100 this season, it’s incredible we didn’t see higher highs. Never got the heat dome east. 

[Roger Smith]

Although it was close, Friday produced two 97F readings at IAD and RIC, not moving the contest scoring however. If the heat dome ever does reposition east before 11-15 Sep it could still touch 100F. Seeing faint signs of this around Sep 8-9 at present. So contest cannot be declared final yet.

[Its a Breeze]

Looks like we'll have another chance next week to hit some of those numbers. Maybe.

Likely a good chance that this'll be our last shot.