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Summer maximum forecast contest -- final report -- congrats to Weather53, Rick in Baltimore, biodhokie

Roger Smith

By Roger Smith,
in Mid Atlantic

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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A few days late but no doubt the hottest days of 2023 are some distance away ... so as always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports:

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

and I will start the ball rolling with 102, 102, 103 and 103. 

Contest deadline 06z June 17 (which is Friday night). 

Tie-breaker details in a post in thread (lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties)

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Roger Smith
Roger Smith

Declaring contest to be final now.    __ Max values 2023 (to date) __ 99 __ 100 __100 __101 The qualifier for rank is the separation of equal error totals by the rules outlined earlier.

H2O
H2O

Need some 737s at the big 3 to blast the sensor for 5 min and I can win this

MN Transplant
MN Transplant

I should have posted this one in here.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Tie-breaker system as follows ...

(1) Scores are based on total error. 

(2) Forecasters with same total will be ranked according to these tiebreakers:

__ (a) _ Lowest maximum error. For example, 1,1,1,1 beats 2,0,1,1

__ (b) _ Lowest second highest error if (a) fails to separate. 2,1,1,0 beats 2,2,0,0

__ (c) _ Lowest third highest error if (a) and (b) fail, e.g., 3,2,1,1 beats 3,2,2,0.

__ (d) _ Order of entry will separate exactly similar errors. 1,1,1,1 on June 7 beats 1,1,1,1 on June 10. 

+++++++++++++++

Contest will close at end of this week, the current values for seasonal max are

DCA __ 94 on June 2nd

IAD ___ 93 on June 2nd

BWI ___ 97 on June 2nd

RIC ___ 89 on Apr 20, 21 (87 on June 2)

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of entries as of June 13 

Entrants can still modify these forecasts and new forecasts can be entered up until end of Friday June 16th.

Order of entry is shown in brackets. A revised forecast will result in a new later order of entry. As contest host, I will not have an order of entry, so anyone who ties me in total error will be ahead in rankings. Tiebreakers are explained in a previous post. 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC

GeorgeBM ( 8 ) __________________ 105 _ 103 _ 106 _ 104

StormchaserChuck1 ( 1 ) ________ 104 _ 103 _ 103 _ 104

Roger Smith _____________________ 102 _ 102 _ 103 _ 103

H2O (20) _________________________102 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102

ChillinIt (15) _______________________102 __ 98 _ 103 _ 104

Rhino16 ( 2 ) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 102 _ 105

mattie g (17) ______________________101 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102

wxdude64 (16) ___________________101 __ 99 _ 101 __ 102 

soundmdwatcher (23) ___________ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _ 102

Terpeast ( 6 ) ____________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100

tplbge (24) _______________________100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 101

GramaxRefugee (19) _____________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100

toolsheds (18) ____________________100 __ 98 _ 101 _ 102

biodhokie (25) ____________________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101

RickinBaltimore ( 7 ) ______________ 99 __100 _ 100 __ 99

WinstonSalemArlington (22) ______ 99 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101

nw baltimore wx ( 3 ) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 100

Weather53 (13) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101

WxUSAF ( 4 ) _____________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99

katabatic ( 9 ) _____________________99 __ 98 _ 100 _ 100

NorthArlington101 (21) ____________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99

Stormpc (14) ______________________98 _ 102 _ 101 __ 99

MN Transplant ( 5 ) _______________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99

Its a Breeze (12) __________________ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100

WxWatcher007 (11) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99

LittleVillageWx (10) _______________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

 

 

 

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