June Long Range

[Weather Will]

JB is already honking the Winter '23 horn...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm getting really strong +PNA signal for Dec. -NAO's are common lately, but I wanted to make note in the May long range thread that they are correlating with the warmest temps all the time. I said 90s late May with +NAO, and it went -NAO first few days of June and only then did we hit it... this has been happening over and over: So we continue this reverse-NAO thing, but another point to note is that haven't really had 30-60+ days of straight -NAO for about 10-15 years, so we are decadally not really in -NAO phase, although smaller duration -NAO's does seem to be the tendency. These are correlating with +EPO/-PNA all the time, but maybe El Nino will change that.. maybe not. El Nino/-QBO is a stratosphere warming signal, and -NAO for the Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just some musings because the thread is dead..

These droughts have lately been filled in there after by above average precipitation.. 

Since June is below normal, I can see July and August potentially being above average temperatures, as that is the macro pattern. 

(Watch the LR pattern, Days 10-15 for favorable tropical tracks to hit the EC, if anything develops this early..)

I said before that the precip pattern has preceeded some harsh, snowy Winters.. this correlation may hit early, and neutralize for the Winter, I'd give us a 250-300% chance of hitting above average rainfall with a tropical system early in the season.. If we don't get that correlation by August, watch for some +PNA signals. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

low to mid 90s today across the area with -NAO. The pattern is N-S is elongating a trough or ridge, through Hadley Cells (15N-80N). I think in the Winter a -NAO will be hard to lock cold, but a stronger El Nino could overpower. This -NAO = warmth thing is really unbelievable because it is happening so often. 

[Weather Will]

WB July EURO seasonal for January.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I can see the coast being a gravitation for pressure systems in the Winter by the way the pattern is.. We have seen a lot of this since year 2000. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The -NAO streak continues.. models trended toward +EPO and highs in the 90s today, with -NAO setting in place. Everytime a -NAO happens, we trend warmer/SE ridge, and the pacific short term goes +epo. This has been happening since 2019, more often than a coincidence. Especially since 2021.